Keys won their only meeting at Eastbourne in June 2014. She won on grass in 2 tight sets.
Keys has had a good season so far with success on all surfaces. However she can put in a weak performance at any time.
Vesnina had a great grass season with a quarter final at Eastbourne and the semis at Wimbledon. She has also had great weeks on all surfaces.
Vesnina won just 3 of her 12 matches at the Rogers Cup. Keys has only played there twice. She reached the 2nd round in 2014 and withdrew from the qualifying rounds in 2013.
I can’t back Keys at 1.48 and think we could see a bigger price on her. Value is on Vesnina at the start. Lay Keys if she breaks first. She probably wins in the end but that is far from certain. Remove or reduce liability if we get enough of a price move in our favour.