Halep leads their previous meetings 2-1. Their last match was at Wimbledon in June. Halep won in 3 sets. She also won in 3 sets on the clay in Rome in 2014. Keys’ win was in January 2014 on a hard court. She won in straight sets. Keys has won the opening set in all their matches.
Both players have been in good form this week. Halep has been having some recent problems with her serve but has looked much more solid from the service line this week.
Keys was poor on second serve against Brengle in the second round but has looked very strong on serve in her other matches. In the semi final she had an easy ride when Kucova ran out of energy. Keys didn’t face a single break point.
The value is on Keys at the start and I think this will be a tight match. Lay Halep if she breaks first. Three sets are likely. I favour Halep to win.