Errani 1.53, Arruabarrena 2.12 ( Zero money in the market at 1pm)
This will be the first time they have played. Both are very capable on clay but have also had a poor 12 months by their own standards.
Errani is now very firmly outside the top 100. She won 58% of her matches in the last 12 months. Arruabarrena won 45% but had a higher ROI). Errani has slightly better stats on clay in the last year but has obviously been far from her best. She has won 14 of her 27 Fed Cup matches and 4 of her last 10.
Arruabarrena didn’t play many clay tournaments last year but did reach the third round in Madrid in May. She has not play much Fed Cup tennis and won 2 of 4 although her losses were to Strycova and Pliskova last year.
I expect lots of breaks of serve. Lay Errani if she breaks first. I think we have a good chance of 3 sets. Some value on Arruabarrena.
Update: Errani broke serve in the very first game of the match. Arruabarrena immediately broke back but that’s about all that went as I expected.
Errani won 6-1, 6-1.