Ashleigh Barty 1.87, Elina Svitolina 2.14
Due to start at 11:30
Svitolina has won all 5 of their previous matches. They last met in March this year in Indian Wells. She won in 3 sets on a hard court. Their only indoor match was in 2017 in a Fed Cup tie. She won in 3 sets. That was their first meeting.
Overall results are better for Barty in 2019. Both players have strong indoor records although Svitolina has a lot more experience.
Barty lost 1 match in the round robin stage. Kiki Bertens beat her in 3 sets. In the semi final she fought back well after losing the first set to Karolina Pliskova. She faced 11 break points in that match but was only broken once in 3 sets. Three of Barty’s 4 matches have gone to 3 sets.
Svitolina has not lost a match so far but has had to work very hard in every match. She won the tournament last season without being beaten. She has a very strong record in finals. She has played 24 finals as a pro and won 19 of them. She has won 9 of her last 10 finals although this is her first one in 2019.
Stats for the tournament are very even. This should be a very tight match but we have value on Svitolina. Lay Barty around 1.50 or wait for her to get a break of serve before laying her. Remove some liability around 1.90. Lay the first set winner. I give Svitolina the edge to win.
Update: The first set was very tight with both players serving well. A late break for Barty gave her the set. In the second set Svitolina got an early break of serve but struggled on serve in that set and Barty put her under a lot of pressure.
Barty won 6-4, 6-3.
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