Muguruza 2.14, Pliskova 1.86
Pliskova leads their previous meetings 6-2. Their last match was in Cincinnati in August this year. Muguruza won their semi final in straight sets on a hard court. Pliskova won their other 2 matches this year on hard and indoor hard courts.
Better overall results for Pliskova this year with 76% of matches won. Muguruza has won 71% of hers and has a higher ROI. Pliskova is unbeaten on indoor courts in 2017 including a win over Muguruza in a Federation Cup tie in February. She was impressive in the last round losing just 4 games to Venus Williams.
Muguruza has had a few injury issues this month and retired in Beijing earlier this month. She came under some pressure on serve in the last match and her second serve was poor. She won just 6 of her 21 second serve points.
I give Pliskova the edge here. It should be an entertaining match. Back her above 2.10. We have a decent chance of 3 sets.
Update: Pliskova won 6-2, 6-2. Very one sided match.