Due to start at 3 pm
Stephens 2.02, Kasatkina 1.96
Head to heads are 1-1. Their most recent meeting was in Indian Wells in March this year. Kasatkina won on a hard court in straight sets. Stephens won on clay in 2016. that was in the quarter finals in Charleston on American green clay which is quite different to European red clay. She won in 3 sets.
Overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2018 are very similar. Clay results are also pretty close. Kasatkina has a slightly higher ROI.
Kasatkina has had arguably stronger opponents. Kanepi and Flipkens were potentially tricky opponents for the early rounds of a slam but were both beaten fairly comfortably. In form Maria Sakkari was the only player to take a set from her in the tournament. I the fourth round I expected more from Wozniacki and having been broken twice early in the match the Dane fought back each time. Wozniacki then broke again and served for the set. Kasatkina broke back and took the set in a tie break. The second set was rain delayed at 3-3 and when they resumed the following day Kasatkina rattled off 3 games to take the match.
Stephens faced Kontaveit in the last round and Kontaveit should have put up a lot more of a fight than she did. She won just 2 games. It was an awful performance that suggested she was not 100%. In the third round Giorgi gave Stephens a real battle. She won the opening set and Stephens eventually won the deciding set 8-6.
I am going with Kasatkina to win this one. Stephens has better stats for the tournament but has had just 1 opponent who competed.
Back Kasatkina above 2.10.