Stats point to a Stephens win and I think they are correct!
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Keys 2.68, Stephens 1.58
Stephens has won both their previous matches. They last met in the US Open final in August 2017. She won comfortably on a hard court. Both their matches were on hard courts with the other being in Miami in March 2015.
Their 12 month overall results are quite similar. Stephens has a slightly lower win rate but has played more matches. Her ROI is also significantly higher. Overall results for this season favour Stephens although their clay results are even in 2018. They both have 11 wins from 15 matches on clay.
Madison Keys has not dropped a set so far. She has served pretty well in the tournament and especially so in the last 2 rounds. This is the first time she has made the semi finals in Paris. Her previous best effort was a fourth round finish in 2016.
Sloane Stephens has lost just 1 set in the tournament. In the third round Giorgi gave her a lot of problems with Stephens winning the deciding set 8-6. Giorgi actually served for the match in that final set. In all the other rounds Stephens has dominated her opponents which included Kasatkina in the quarter final.
Stats for the tournament strongly favour Stephens. Back her above 1.85.
Update: Stephens broke in Keys’ second service game and held on for the set, only facing break points in 1 of her own service games in that 1st set. She took a double break 5-2 lead in set 2 and served out the match at the 2nd attempt.
Stephens won 6-4, 6-4