Both players have taken some huge scalps.
Starts 6 pm.
Osaka 2.18, Kasatkina 1.83
This will be their first meeting.
Stats for the tournament are VERY close though slightly favour Osaka. Overall results for last 12 months favour Kasatkina but Osaka has slightly better results this year. Hard court results this year also favour Osaka with 77% v 66% matches won.
They have both performed well this year and have beaten top players in this tournament. Osaka beat Halep, Pliskova and Sharapova. while Kasatkina took out Stephens, Wozniacki, Kerber and Venus.Williams. That’s an impressive list of wins by anyone’s standards.
Osaka has lost just one set which was against arguably her weakest opponent, Sakkari. She has been broken an average of two times per match.
Kasatkina lost her only set of the tournament in the semi final with Venus Williams. She has been broken 13 times with 6 of them coming in that semi final.
The sets will be tight and we have a good chance of 3 sets. The value is on Osaka though her price has shortened during the morning.
Lay Kasatkina below 1.50 and remove liability at 2.00. Really tough to pick a winner but I give a slight edge to Osaka.