Vesnina leads their previous meetings 3-2. The most recent match was in March 2016 in Miami. Vesnina won that one in 3 sets on a hard court. Venus’ last win was in January 2015. She won on a hard court in Auckland in straight sets.
Over all stats this year favour Venus but they are closely matched. On hard courts Venus has more of an advantage. She made hard work of beating Peng in the last round although Peng has been in strong form this year. The 2nd and 3rd sets look easy on paper but she struggled in most of her service games. She
didn’t hit an ace and had 6 double faults. She was broken 5 times from 12 break points. She really just played the big points better than Peng.
Vesnina had a real battle with Babos in the 2nd round but then beat Kerber in straight sets in her last match.
This is almost certainly going to 3 sets but I favour Venus to get the win. Her experience is working for her this week. She is very likely to go behind early in the match. Wait for her to be broken before backing