Kasatkina 1.85, Pavlyuchenkova 2.16
Pavlyuchenkova won their only previous meeting. That was in this tournament in 2015. They met in the semi final; and Pavlyuchenkova won in 3 sets after Kasatkina had taken the opening set.
Pavlyuchenkova has better overall results this year. She won the title last week in Hong Kong. She beat Gavrilova in the final in a third set tie break. She has a very good record in this tournament and reached the quarter finals last year. She got to the final in 2014
and 2015 taking the title in 2014. She may be fatigued after her title last week.
Kasatkina reached the quarter finals in Beijing 2 weeks ago. She beat Radwanska before losing easily to Halep in straight sets. She had a fourth round finish at the US Open and also made the third round in Wuhan.
I favour Kasatkina but think it will be tight. Three sets seem likely. Back her if she gets broken.
Update: Kasatkina won 7-6, 6-1.