Larsson leads their previous matches 3-2. They last met In September last year in Tokyo. Lepchenko won on a hard court in 3 sets. Larsson had won the previous month on a hard court in New Haven, USA in straight sets. Lepchenko won their only indoor match in 2012.
Much better recent results for Lepchenko. She won 8 of her last 10. Larsson won 2 of her last 10. Lepchenko reached the third round in Wuhan, China as a qualifier at the end of last month. She beat Madison Keys that week before losing in 3 sets to in form Alize Cornet. The following week she also had to get through the qualifying rounds and after beating Tsurenko in the main draw she lost in 2 tight sets to Kvitova.
Larsson played well in the last round to beat Cepelova in straight sets. She has a decent record don hard courts in the last 12 months. She has struggled to find consistency in recent months and not all her losses were to top players. Her win in the last round has got to help her confidence and she will fight hard today
I expect Lepchenko to win this in her current form but it will be tight. Back her if she is broken first.