Bouchard leads their previous meetings 3-2. Their last match was at the Olympics in 2016. Kerber won in straight sets on a hard court. Bouchard has won both their clay meetings.
Bouchard beat Sharapova in the last round and played at a level we
haven’t seen from her for a while. Whether she can match that level today remains to be seen.
Kerber was in control of her match with Siniakova in the last round but switched off in set 2. The 3rd set was really tight. Kerber lost her serve in the 7th game and Siniakova served for the match at 5-4. Kerber broke serve and another break in Siniakova’s next service game gave her the match.
I can see this going to 3 sets. Lay Kerber below 1.30. Remove or reduce liability if Kerber gets broken and then Bouchard holds.
Update: Kerber broke Bouchard’s serve in the first game of the match but was broken straight back. Bouchard took the set. kerber was injured and retired in set 2 when she was 0-5 down.