Kasatkina improved in her last match but I am going with Muguruza to win a tight match
Due to start at 7 pm
Muguruza 1.64, Kasatkina 2.62
Muguruza leads their previous matches 2-1. They last met in February this year on a hard court in Dubai. Kasatkina won their semi final in 3 sets. Muguruza won on clay in 2015 in straight sets.
Muguruza has stronger overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2018. Clay results also favour her.
Kasatkina has shown some shaky form recently but was much improved in the last round against Cirstea. Cirstea had a poor match which helped her. She struggled more than she should have done in the first round against Wang. She faced 10 break points although was only broken 3 times.
Muguruza made a slow start against Vekic. She went a double break down at the start of the match. She was broken a third time before the end of the set. In the second set she again went a break behind but immediately broke back and then broke again and took the set. The deciding set was very one sided.
There is a very good chance that this goes to 3 sets. Back Muguruza above 1.85
Update: Muguruza didn’t have a good match. She lost set 1 with a double break. She broke at the start of the 2nd set but lost serve twice to trail 2-4. She took the next 4 games for the set.
In the 3rd she went a break behind, levelled the set but was broken again. Kasatkina won 6-2, 4-6, 6-3.
Not easy to stay in on Muguruza although the break and hold at the start of set 2 helped if you weren’t greedy.