Due to start at 5 pm
Barty 1.90, Pliskova 2.10
Head to head results are 2-2. They last met at the US Open last August. Pliskova won on a hard court in 2 sets. Barty won their other hard court match in September 2017. She won in a third set tie break. Their 12 month results and 2019 results are very even. There is the slightest of edges for Barty. She leads 85% v 84% matches won this season. Pliskova has better hard court results this season. She leads with 87% v 83% matches won.
Ashleigh Barty started the tournament with comfortable wins over Yastremska and Stosur. Bertens and Kvitova are both top 10 players but Barty beat them both in 3 sets. Each time she won the deciding set by 6-2. Many people expected Kontaveit to give her some problems in the semi final but I felt that Kontaveit’s stats for the week flattered her. Barty won that match in straight sets.
Pliskova was comfortable against Martic in the first round. She had a few more problems in the next two rounds and lost the opening sets against Alize Cornet and Yulia Putintseva. Obviously Pliskova took the third sets but they were both close sets. Those tough matches helped to focus Pliskova’s mind and when she met her 2 toughest opponents she won both in straight sets. Marketa Vondrousova is having an excellent season. Simona Halep had better stats for the tournament when they met in the semi final and I had expected her to beat Pliskova. Halep’s serve deserted her after she took the first break of serve and Pliskova stepped up the pressure.
Stats for the tournament favour Barty in everything except service holds. There is very little between them so we have some value on Pliskova and I give her a small edge. Lay Barty around 1.60 to 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20.