Tournament stats favour Sloane Stephens.
Due to start at 6 pm
Stephens 2.32, Kerber 1.74
Stephens leads their previous matches 3-1. They last met in August 2017 in Canada. Stephens won in straight sets on a hard court.
Kerber has better overall results in last 12 months. She has also been stronger so far in 2018. Stephens has better return stats for the tournament. Kerber is slightly ahead on serve.
Kerber really struggled in the last round against Wang. She lost the opening set in a tie break and the 2nd set also went to a tie break. She also had to work hard for some of her service holds in her match with Pavlyuchenkova in the third round.
Stephens own serve has also looked vulnerable at times in her 3 matches. Niculescu had 15 break chances although only broke her 3 times. Stephens was also broken 3 times in the last round by Muguruza having had 8 break points.
We have some value on Stephens as underdog and I expect her to take at least a set. Lay Kerber below 1.50 and remove or reduce liability at 2.00. Good chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Stephens to win