Expect a tight match but Larsson is the better clay courter
Due to start at 12:30
Riske 2.12, Larsson 1.87
Riske won both their previous matches. Their most recent meeting was in September 2014 on a hard court. She won in 2 close sets. The other match was indoors in an ITF final in 2010. She also won that match in straight sets.
Overall results favour Larsson in the last 12 months and also in 2018. Her clay results are also stronger. She has won 66% of her clay matches this season compared to 57% of matches for Riske. Larsson also has a higher ROI on clay.
Larsson was a little fortunate in her first 2 matches this week. Begu retired in the first round and McHale seemed to have a shoulder problem in the second round and won just 3 games. Since then though Larsson has earned her place in the final. She came back from losing the opening set against Kristyna Pliskova and then against against Siniakova in the semi final.
Riske has really raised her game this week. Her tougher matches were in the early rounds. Minella was a little disappointing in the first round but Putintseva took the first set from her. Cirstea looked to have control in the quarter final but an injury forced her to retire in the deciding set. Flipkens was tired after playing a match earlier in the day.
Stats for the tournament favour Larsson on serve. Return stats are fairly even but slightly favour Alison Riske. Larsson is the better clay courter. I give her the edge today. I think we have a decent chance of 3 sets today.
Lay Riske if she breaks first. I’d take 2.20 on Larsson without a break with part stake.
Update: Larsson was broken early in the match but immediately broken back. She went to on to 7-6, 6-4.