Kvitova 1.69, Muguruza 2.42
Kvitova leads their previous matches 3-1. They last met at the US Open in 2017. She won on a hard court in straight sets. She won their other hard court match in Beijing in October 2016. That one also ended in 2 sets. Muguruza won indoors at the year end finals in Singapore in 2015. That went to a deciding set.
Overall results are better for Kvitova over last 12 months. She has won 13 of 15 this year. Muguruza has had injury issues and has won 6 of 9.
Stats this week slightly favour Muguruza. She had a rest in the last round as Halep withdrew with a foot injury. Muguruza lost her only set of the week to Garcia in the quarter final.
Kvit had a tough 3 set win over Wozniacki in the semi final. She was a set and a break down and looked unlikely to recover. However she broke back and took the second set in a tie break. She has beaten stronger players this week.
I think Muguruza can take a set but I favour Kvitova for the win. Back her above 1.90