Kerber won their only previous meeting. That was in the semi final of the Australian Open In January and of course she went on to win the title. She won in straight sets.
Konta faced 19 break points against Kuznetsova. She was broken 7 times which was partly due to her being tired but also because Kuznetsova played well. Konta really should have lost that one..
Kerber was only broken once by Stosur from 9 break chances. She has looked good up to this point.
How much energy does Konta have left? If Kerber plays her best tennis she wins regardless of how well Konta plays. The early part of the match will be competitive and we could easily see Konta take a break lead. I’ll back Kerber if she gets broken first. If this turns into a long 3 set match that favours Kerber.