Gavrilova won their only previous meeting. That was in Canada in August 2015. She won in straight sets on a har court.
Gavrilova has better overall results this year. Her clay stats are also stronger in 2017.
Stosur has played really well this week. She lost just 1 game in each of her early matches. Against Suarez Navarro in the quarter final she was put under a lot more pressure and the error count rose. She still came through in straight sets. She always looked in control against Peng in the semi final but she choked when serving for both sets. If she gets into a winning position today she is likely to do the same.
Gavrilova has had a couple of tricky 3 set wins on her path to the final. In the quarter final Barty pushed her to a third set tie break. In the semi final I thought Garcia would put up much more of a fight than she did. The opening set was decided by an early break of serve. Gavrilova gave very few chances to the French player who folded in the second set.
We have value on Gavrilova as underdog. Lay Stosur if she breaks first