Kerber leads their previous meetings 3-2. Their last match was in January this year. Kerber won in straight sets on a hard court. Suarez Navarro won their only clay match in 2014. Only 1 of their matches went to 3 sets.
Suarez Navarro hasn’t been troubled so far. She has already matched her quarter final finish from last year. She hasn’t lost more than 4 games in either of her matches this week.
Kerber is the defending champion. She beat Wozniacki in the final last year. She seems to have got over her Australian Open win and is playing well.
I think this could go to a deciding set but Kerber has a little more to play for and is in front of her home crowd. She probably has friends and family in the stadium.
Back Kerber if she is broken first. If Suarez Navarro starts playing defensively she will not be able to compete.