Giorgi 2.84, Kerber 1.53
Kerber has won both of their previous matches. They last met in Brisbane in January 2016 on a hard court. She won in 3 sets. The other meeting was also on a hard court in 2015. She won that time in 2 sets.
Kerber looks sharp so far in 2018. She had tough matches in the first 2 rounds this week but easily beat Cibulkova in the last round. She has held serve 78% of the time
Giorgi has an impressive looking list of results this week. Stephens, Kvitova and Radwanska were all beaten in straight sets but gave her a bit of help. Kvitova served for the opening set but when she was broken she fell apart. Radwanska won just 3 games from her in the last round. Giorgi has better stats this week in al the main categories.
Back Kerber if she gets broken first. Back her if she loses the first set. If she cares, she wins