Kontaveit 2.12, Safarova 1.84
This will be their first meeting.
Better overall results for Kontaveit this year. She had a lot of success up to July. She put in some superb performances all surfaces. Since reaching the final in Gstaad on clay in July Since then her level in her next 2 matches was lower and she was perhaps ready for a rest.
On hard courts it’s Safarova who has the edge. Her more recent results are stronger too. She lost to Sloane Stephens in Cincinnati though Stephens has been in inspired form. the week before that Safarova reached the quarter finals in Toronto where she had the misfortune to draw Stephens again. She doesn’t have a great record at the US Open for someone with her ability and reached the second round last season.
This should be very tight. Kontaveit reached the fourth round in 2015 but lost in the 1st round last year to Vesnina. Safarova reached the fourth round in 2014 but has won 1 match in the last 2 years. Three sets seem likely. I give the edge to Safarova as Kontaveit is not playing at the level she was earlier in the season.
Update: Safarova lost the opening set in a tie break after having a break lead twice. She won the match in 3 sets.