Vandeweghe 1.79. Safarova 2.22
Safarova leads their previous meetings 3-1. They last met in March this year in Indian Wells. Safarova came back from losing set 1 to win in 3 sets. Their other matches were won in 2 sets. Safarova won both their hard court matches.
They have similar overall results this year with around 65% of matches won. Vandeweghe has a higher ROI. Safarova has slightly better hard court results but Vandeweghe has the edge in ROI.
All the major stats categories for this tournament favour Safarova. She has only been broken once in each of the last 2 rounds. The only other time she reached the fourth round was in 2014 when she lost to Shuai Peng in straight sets.
In the last round Vandeweghe faced 14 break points and was broken 5 times. She had a tough opening match against Alison Riske and lost the opening set. In the second round Ons Jabeur pushed her to a tie break but only had 1 break chance in the match which was saved by Vandeweghe. She has never been beyond the second round before this year.
Value on Safarova to take a set. I give her the edge to win in 3 sets.
Lay Vandeweghe below 1.50.
Update: Very tight match. Safarova had a break point for a 5-4 lead in the 1st set but Vandeweghe saved it and then broken for the set. Safarova broke first in the second set but just couldn’t hold onto the lead.
Vandeweghe won 6-4, 7-6.