Keys 1.25, Kanepi 4.80
Kanepi won their only previous meeting. That was in May 2015 in Madrid on clay. She won in straight sets.
Kanepi has had an amazing tournament. This is just her fourth tournament of the year and her first on hard courts. She came through the qualifying rounds and beat Kasatkina in the last round. In 3 of her 4 main draw matches her serve has come under a lot of pressure. Only Wickmayer failed to give her much trouble. In her straight sets win over Kasatkina she was broken 4 times from 11 break points. Keys is on another level to her previous opponents though.
Keys has never been past the 4th round before. Mertens and Maria kept the sets quite close but didn’t put a whole lot of pressure on her serve. Vesnina took the opening set in their third round match and has 12 break chances in the match, taking 4 of them. Svitolina, not surprisingly, was her toughest opponent and also had 12 break points. She broke the Keys serve 5 times and was a break ahead in the deciding set. From 2-4 down Keys won 4 games in a row.
Keys has more firepower than Kasatkina and I have to favour her to win but 3 sets wouldn’t surprise me. Back Keys if she gets broken AND Kanepi holds serve.
Update: Keys won in 2 sets.