Kerber leads their previous matches 7-5. They haven’t met this season but played 3 times in 2015. Kerber won 2 of those. They were 1-1 on hard courts and 2 of the matches went to a deciding set.
Wozniacki has not had a good season. Her body has continually let her down and her ranking has slipped outside the top 50. She lost her opening set of the tournament and it looked like it was going to be another poor week for her but she fought back to beat Townsend in 3 sets. That was the only set she has lost so far. Kuznetsova, and Keys have fallen to her and Sevastova who promised so much in the quarter final took just 2 games from her.
Kerber’s season could not contrast that of her opponent more. She won her first grand slam in Melbourne and reached the final at Wimbledon. She also took silver at the Rio Olympics.
It seems obvious to go for Kerber to win and perhaps a straight sets win given their relative experiences in 2016. However Wozniacki has been playing more like she was when at the top of the rankings and I can see the Dane taking at least a set.
Kerber starts around 1.45 but I expect to see a higher price on her. Back her if she gets broken first. Kerber to win in 3 sets.