Goerges has beaten stronger opponents this week.
Due to start at 4 pm
Goerges 1.91, Sevastova 2.06
Goerges leads their previous matches 4-3. The last time they played was in March 2018 on a hard court in Indian Wells. Sevastova won in straight sets. None of their matches were on clay.
Stronger overall results for Goerges in the last 12 months and also this season. Sevastova has slightly better clay results in the last year.
I have gone against Goerges in the last 2 rounds. She beat 2 very strong opponents in Osaka and Kasatkina and beat them in straight sets. Her serve wasn’t great in her first match of the week but she really sorted that issue out for the Osaka match.
Sevastova’s only lost set this week was to her weakest opponent which was Dolehide in her 1st match. Both Barty and the weaker Pliskova sister didn’t play their best tennis.
Stats for the week are fairly close but they all favour Sevastova. Goerges has had stronger opponents so in reality her numbers are more impressive. This should be a very tight match. Three sets are likely.
I give a slight edge to Goerges. Back her above 2.10. Remember to reduce or remove liability after a significant price move in your favour.