Muguruza 2.22, Keys 1.79
Keys has won all 3 of their previous meetings. The last time they played was in Stanford, USA a couple of weeks ago. It was in the semi finals and Keys won in straight sets on a hr court. Their only other hard court meeting was at this tournament in 2012. She won in 3 sets.
This season Muguruza has better overall results and stats. On hard courts it is Keys with the stronger results and her ROI is also higher.
Keys has come through 2 potentially tricky matches so far. In the first round she was up against Coco Vandeweghe who she has beaten in the final in Stanford in straight sets. This time Vandeweghe put up more of a fight and pushed her to 3 sets. In the 2nd round she faced Kasatkina who can sometimes raise her game against higher ranked player but only managed to win 3 games against the American.
Muguruza hasn’t been tested at all and lost just 2 games to Haddad Maia. in the 2nd round. She had a BYE through the first round as one of the top seeds.
We have some value on Muguruza at the start at the start but I favour Keys to win a tight match.
Back Keys above 2.20