Muguruza 1.54, Kuznetsova 2.78
Muguruza leads their previous meetings 4-1. Their last match was at Wimbledon in July this year. Muguruza won on grass in straight sets. She won their last 4 matches including a victory in the quarter finals in Brisbane in January on hard courts.
Muguruza came under a lot of pressure yesterday from Keys who had 4 match points in the deciding set. Her second serve was a little vulnerable. She hit 8 double faults and was broken 5 times. Last year she reached the semi finals where she lost to Pliskova. She has won 70% of her hard court matches this season.
Kuznetsova had her own second serve problems in the first round and hit 8 double faults. She was still only broken 3 times. Her second serve improved against Suarez Navarro in the last round and she won 69% of second serve points. Higher than on her first serve!
This could be a battle and we have an outside chance of 3 sets. Muguruza has been fighting hard and she knows how to win the big matches. Wait for 1.80 before backing her
Update: Muguruza won 6-2, 5-7, 7-5.