Due to start at 12:00
Riske 2.60, Kerber 1.61
Kerber leads their previous matches 3-1. The last time they met was in Mallorca in June 2018. Riske won on grass in 3 sets. Their only hard court match was in 2014 at the Australian Open. Kerber won in straight sets.
Overall results slightly favour Kerber in the last 12 months and are even in 2019. Hard court results are a little better for Kerber.
Kerber isn’t having her best season. It hasn’t been a disaster but below the level expected from a top player. She started well in the short grass season but then lost in the 2nd round at Wimbledon as the defending champion. Since then she has lost all 3 of her hard court matches. She was pre match favourite each time.
Riske has played some decent tennis at times in 2019. Grass is her strongest surface and she took an ITF title before taking the title in Hertogenbosch and making the quarter finals at Wimbledon. When the tour switched to hard courts she took Pliskova to 3 sets in Toronto and pushed Sharapova close in both sets in Cincinnati. At the US Open she beat Muguruza in 3 sets but lost to Ostapenko in a bizarre low quality match.
We have a decent chance of seeing 3 sets. Lay Kerber around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.80. Back her if she goes a break behind. The final outcome has more to do with Kerber’s form than Riske’s.
Update: Kerber broke in the first game of the match but was broken back and then Riske took a break lead. Kerber broke back and took the set in a tie break. There were 20 breaks of serve in the match (10 each). Riske won 6-7, 6-4, 7-6. Kerber had a match point in the 3rd set tie break.
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