A lot of people ask me what strategy I use the most. This is one I use a lot. This could be part of Swing Trading but it deserves a section of its own.

For this strategy we need to have an idea of what the price will be at the end of the set. The “set price” depends on the starting price or SP and also the set score or more importantly the number of breaks the set winner takes the set by.

The basic idea is to lay the player who gets within 15 to 20 ticks of the set price early in the set. The earlier the better as it leaves longer for our player to make a comeback.

When a player breaks serve first  the market can often overreact and drops lower than it should. If the player then holds serve their price can get within 20 ticks of what their price will be if they go on to win the set.

As a very rough guide if the pre match underdog is in the lead I am looking to lay them at 1.60 or lower because if the favourite’s SP was around 1.50 the underdog will be around 1.45 to 1.50 if they win the set.

Of course, as the favourite’s SP varies so does the set price. A 1.20 favourite is unlikely to trade above 2.00. (In reality you would wait to back the favourite when they have lost the set). A 1.75 favourite would give us a set price on the underdog of around 1.35 to 1.40.

This strategy can of course be used if the favourite goes ahead in the set. The benefit of this situation is that we are laying at a lower price. Below is a chart of what the set price will be on the favourite when they win the set. Bear in mind that the set price predictions are based on the set being won with a single break. The set price will be a little lower if it is won with a double break and if it is a 6-0 set the price will be a tick or 2 lower still.

(*SP= Starting Price)

Update: What price will the underdog be at if they win the set?

Set price for the underdog isn’t quite as easy to estimate accurately.

If the underdog wins the set, here are the expected set prices.

I prefer to use this strategy in matches where the favourite starts between 1.40 and 1.70 . I also prefer to lay the under dog when they go into the lead. This is because the favourite is more likely to make  come back and the number of ticks is larger in these situations.

Example: The favourite starts at 1.40. If they break the underdog’s serve the favourite’s price drops to around 1.20. If we then lay the favourite and the underdog breaks the favourite’s serve the favourite’s price will return to around 1.40.  

If the underdog were to get the first break of serve and then hold his own service game we are looking to lay him but would wait for a slightly better price. If he were to get the first 2 points on the favourite’s next service game then the underdog’s price would be around 1.60. We then lay the underdog. If the favourite were to hold and then break the underdog’s serve we would expect around 90 ticks in our favour.

When do we exit? 

If we have laid the favourite when they go a break ahead and the under dog breaks back we have options.

We can hedge the trade evenly leaving the same profit on each player

We can move all our profit onto the favourite by backing the favourite with the same stake we laid with.

We can back with half our lay stake. This will leave us with approximately zero on the favourite and profit on the underdog.

If we have laid the underdog when they get to within 20 ticks of the set price and the favourite breaks back we also have options.

We can hedge the trade evenly leaving the same profit on each player.

We can remove our liability on the underdog to leave a free bet on the favourite. Do this by laying the favourite with a stake equal to the red figure we have on the under dog.

We can also leave all the profit on the underdog. This wouldn’t normally be the best option unless we have a strong feeling that the underdog is still the stronger player despite having just been broken. Do this by backing the underdog with a stake equal to the green figure that we have on the favourite.

Note: Rather than hedging evenly we can also adjust the hedging stake manually to leave a little more profit on one player. Use the trading software’s “What If” option (also available on the Betfair site) to see what effect your current stake will have once the bet is placed.

What if it doesn’t work?

There will obviously be times when the player we have laid continues to be the stronger player and we need to exit the trade for a loss. If we have taken a value entry price ( ie within 20 ticks of the set price ) then we can let the trade run to the end of the set and lose 20 ticks maximum.

If you don’t feel that the player who is losing is putting any pressure on their opponent’s serve you may want to exit the trade before the end of the set. Be aware that if the player who is leading gets a second break then our loss at the end of the set can be a little more than 20 ticks as this pushes the set price a few ticks lower.

Example 1

Please note I have re-uploaded this one as the old version was corrupted.

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Example 2

This is a match between Fognini and Ramos. My pre match analysis suggested it would be a 3 set match. As you will see my entries were decent value ones. The better value your entry point is, the less you have to mess around with the trade. In this one my liability wasn’t huge and I was prepared to stay in until Ramos was broken in the second set.

Example 3

I started recording my screen for the Bertens v Barthel match on 13th July 2015 as I thought it could be a good one for this strategy. Unfortunately my screen recording software crashed (it was the first time using it on my new laptop and the software hadn’t transferred properly.

Anyway, Here is my trading screen showing the trades and I have indicated what order they were placed. I have also included the point by point record for the 1st set.

1- I backed Bertens at the start. Barthel had been in awful form and it looked a fair price. The match was very scrappy with a lot of breaks.

2- Bertens was struggling on serve but hadn’t been broken. Barthel hit 1.76 and I laid her. Normally I would recommend waiting for the break before laying but I was so sure Barthel would have a poor match. Bertens held serve. I could then have laid off some of my liability on Barthel but chose to give Bertens a chance to break.

3- In fact Barthel held and then broke in the next game! I laid Barthel after the break.

4-Bertens broke in the very next game and then held. a choice of laying off my liability after her break or after she held. I chose to wait. It was the riskier option but I was convinced Bertens would take control of the match. This left me with around 66 liability on Barthel and approx 175 green on Bertens ( from memory )

There was then a run of 6 consecutive breaks of serve that took us to the tie break.

5- Barthel took a 3-0 lead in the tie break and Iaid her. Her price was very close to where I expected her to be if she won the set so it was a good entry.

6- Bertens fought back and was a mini break up. I wasn’t convinced that she would serve out the tie break so I removed most of my liability.

7 – She won the set and I greened up.