ATP World Tour Finals: Djokovic v Federer

Novak Djokovic 1.40, Roger Federer 3.4

Round Robin Stage

 

Due to start at 8 pm

Djokovic leads their previous matches 28-22. They last met in the Wimbledon Final in July. Djokovic won in 5 sets. He has won their last 4 matches.

Federer’s last win was at this tournament in 2015. He won in straight sets. Overall results are very even in last 12 months. This is a straight shoot out for a place in the semi finals as they both beat Matteo Berrettini and lost to Dominic Thiem.

Federer has a slightly better indoor record. The only time he failed to reach the semi final stage was in 2008. The tournament was held in Shanghai and he lost to Andy Murray and Gilles Simon. The tournament moved to London the year after. He has won the title 7 times and reached the final another 3 times. His last final was in 2015 when he lost to Djokovic in straight sets. He hasn’t been quite at his best this week. He was beaten by Thiem in 2 tight sets and beat Berrettini in straight sets.

 

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Djokovic lost in the final to Alexander Zverev last year and lost to Andy Murray in the final in 2016. He dominated the tournament between 2012 and 2015 with 4 titles in a row. He looked very focused in his first match this week and dropped just 3 games to a nervous Berrettini. He took the opening set against Dominic Thiem in a tie break and it looked like business as usual but Thiem fought back to win the match in a third set tie break.

I have to favour Djokovic to win but expect Federer to come out swinging. He will try to rush Djokovic. Lay Djokovic if he gets an early break of serve. Back him if he gets broken first.

 

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ATP World Tour Finals: Tsitsipas v Zverev

Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.16, Alexander Zverev 1.85

Round Robin Stage

Due to start at 8pm.

Tsitsipas leads their previous matches 3-1. Their last meeting was in the Beijing semi final in September. Tsitsipas won on a hard court in 2 close sets. He won both their 2019 matches with the other being on clay in Madrid in May. He won that one in 3 sets.  Zverev won on a hard court in Washington in July last season.

Overall results in 2019 are better for Tsitsipas. His indoor results are also a little stronger this year. Last year Zverev won this tournament and Tsitsipas won the Next Gen tournament.

Both won their last match as big underdog.

Tsitsipas didn’t face a single break point against Medvedev.  It was a match of very few chances but he played the big points well. He only managed to break Medvedev once.  He lost just 5 points on his first serve.

Tsistipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Photo TennisWorldUSA.org

I expected Zverev to have a decent chance against Nadal and that certainly proved to be the case. Nadal was not at his best but Zverev made life very difficult for him. He served well and didn’t face a break point. He also returned strongly and broke the Nadal serve 3 times.

We have some value on Tsitsipas.  The sets will be very tight and tie breaks are likely. Lay Zverev around 1.65 and remove the liability at 2.20. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Very tight first set that went to Tsitsipas with a late break. He dominated the second set.
Tsitsipas won 6-3, 6-2.

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