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WTA Australian Open, Quarter Final: Kvitova v Barty

Due to start at 8 am

Kvitova 1.69, Barty 2.42

Kvitova has won all 3 of their previous matches. They last met in the Sydney final earlier this month. She won in a third set tie break. That was their only hard court match.

Slightly better overall results for Kvitova in the last 12 months. She won 76% of her matches compared to 73% for Barty. On hard courts they both won 75% of matches.

Barty has lost just 1 set so far which was the opening set against Sharapova in the last round. In the third round match with Sakkari she suffered an abdominal strain that forced her to withdraw from the doubles tournament.  That strain did not seem to trouble her too much against Sharapova.

Petra Kvitova

Petra Kvitova

Kvitova has not lost a set so far. She had 2 tricky opponents in Anisimova and Bencic.  Both those players had shown strong forum in 2019 but Kvitova didn’t face a break point against either of them.

Is Barty totally over her abdominal strain? Stats for the tournament all favour Kvitova. We have a good chance of 3 sets. Back Kvitova around 1.95.

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WTA Australian Open, Fourth Round: Osaka v Sevastova

Due to start at 1 am

Osaka 1.67, Sevastova 2.46

They are 2-2 in their previous meetings. They last met  earlier this month in Brisbane. Osaka won in 3 sets.  All their matches have been on hard courts.

Overall results are very even in the last 12 months. On hard courts Osaka leads 78% v 66% matches won. Stats for the tournament are pretty even with Osaka having the smallest of edges.

Sevastova has dropped 1 set so far. She has served well overall. She was very comfortable in the first round against Mona barthel but in round two she lost the second set to Bianca Andreescu.  She faced 11 break points in that match although was only broken 3 times.  in the last round i expected a little more from Qiang Wang but Sevastova really lifted her level and faced just 1 break point. Her first serve was excellent.

Naomi Osaka

Naomi Osaka

Osaka has lost 1 set so far. She was very strong market favourite in her first two matches. She was fairly comfortable in those matches against Magda Linette and Tamara Zidansek. In the third round she was a set and a break down to Su-Wei Hsieh before getting her act together. She easily won the deciding set.

Six months and 3 months hard court results favour Osaka. Sevastova has been the more consistent player in this tournament. Three sets seem likely but I favour Osaka to win. Back Osaka around 1.95.

Update: Very tight match. Osaka was broken in the third game of the match and that was enough to lose her the set. A single break was also enough for Osaka to level the match. In the third Osaka broke serve at the start but Sevastova pulled back to 33. She was immediately broken again and Osaka held on for the match.

Osaka won 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.

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WTA Australian Open, Fourth Round: Barty v Sharapova

Due to start at 1:30 am

Barty 1.84, Sharapova 2.16

Sharapova won both their previous meetings. The last time they played was on a clay court in Rome in May 2018. She won in 3 sets. She won the other when Barty withdrew from a match in Brisbane  in 2013.

Stronger overall results for Barty. Hard court results also favour her in the last 12 months.

Barty has not lost a set so far. Sharapova lost just 1 set which was against Wozniacki in the last round.

Maria Sharapova

Maria Sharapova

Stats for the tournament are very even. The only difference is in service holds. Sharapova leads 89% to 85% of service games won. Not much of a difference but it is a little more impressive as she played defending champ Wozniacki.

If they were both 100% fit I would give Barty the edge on hard courts. However she suffered an abdominal strain in the last round and later withdrew from the doubles tournament.

I still think we see 3 sets.  Some value on Sharapova. Lay Barty if she breaks first or wins set 1.

Update: Clearly the abdominal strain wasn’t an issue for Barty. She won 4-6, 6-1, 6-4.

 

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