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ATP Croatia Open, Final: Pella v Cecchinato

Due to start at 7 pm

Pella 2.20, Cecchinato 1.80

Head to heads are  1-1. The last time they played was in a clay Challenger in Germany. Pella won in straight sets. Cecchinato’s win was also on clay but this time in Brazil. He won when Pella retired after winning the first set.

Better overall results for Cecchinato this season. His clay results are also stronger. He has won 72% of his matches this season. compared to 60% for Pella.

Pella has needed 3 sets in three of his four matches this week. His only straight sets win was a 7-6, 7-5 win over Lajovic in the quarter final. He has served pretty well although came under a lot of pressure from Bedene in the second round.  He faced 13 break points and was broken 5 times.

Cecchinato

Marco Cecchinato

Cecchinato had a slow start in his first match and lost the opening set quite easily to Vesely. That seemed to spark him into action and he has not lost a set since. He was broken just once in each of his last two matches.

Stats for the week favour Cecchinato. His price looks decent but I will wait for 1.95.

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ATP Croatia Open, Umag, Quarter Final: Djere v Cecchinato

Due to start at 8:30 pm

Djere 2.28, Cecchinato 1.75

Cecchinato won their only previous meeting.  That was in a Challenger in Milan in June 2016. He won on clay in 2 easy sets.

Overall results favour Cecchinato in the last 12 months and in 2018. His ROI is a lot higher.

Both are strong on clay but Cecchinato’s results this season are a little  better.

Cecchinato

Cecchinato

Djere has beaten Marterer and Cuevas this week. He was underdog in both matches.

Cecchinato has played just 1 match which was a 3 sets win over Vesely. He came under a lot of pressure on serve but was only broken twice.

We have a good chance of 3 sets. Some value on Djere.

I favour Cecchinato to win a tight match. Back him above 2.10.

Update: Cecchinato was broken first but broke back and went on the take the match in straight sets.

He won 6-4, 6-1.

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ATP Rhode Island, Newport: Pospisil v M. Zverev

Due to start at 8:30 pm

Pospisil 2.56, Zverev 1.60

Zverev has won both their previous matches. They last met indoors in October 2016 in Basal. Zverev won in 2 tight sets. The other was in 2012 in Memphis. That was also indoors and he won in 2 sets.

Pospisil has much better overall results in 2018. He has won 34 of his 48 matches. Zverev has been much better on grass with 6 wins from 9 matches. Pospisil won 1 of 4 on grass.

Pospisil beat Donald Young in the last round in straight sets. Young is having an awful season but did take the opening set to a tie break. Pospisil served really well.

Zverev

Mischa Zverev

Zverev won the title on grass in Eastbourne last month. He had reached the third round at Wimbledon last season but he lost in the first round this season. He was probably tired from the title win the week before. His only success in Newport was a quarter final finish in 2007.

I favour Zverev to win but wait for 1.80 before backing him.

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