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24th April 2014 – Betcast interview and today’s trading previews.

Dave at Betcast interviewed me last week. You can listen to that interview HERE

 

We had some very odd results yesterday. Ferrer lost in straight sets on clay to Gabashvili! In Spain!

Fognini is clearly still in sulk mode as he failed to win a game against Giraldo before he retired at 0-6, 0-4.

Kvitova bombed out in straight sets although that isn’t so much of a surprise these days!

Even Nadal only scraped through his match with Ramos 7-6, 6-4.

 

ATP Bucharest, 11:30Haase has yet to take a set from Youzhny in 5 attempts. Youzhny won their most recent meeting which was in the final of Gstaad in July.

Haase had an excellent clay season last year but his more recent form has been very poor. Before this week he had four first round losses in his last four clay events. All were as favourite.

Youzhny isn’t doing much better with 3 withdrawals and one retirement already in 2014. There were rumours before his first round match with Seppi in Monte Carlo that he was still carrying an injury. He didn’t play too badly if that was the case but didn’t take his chances.

Seppi had never beaten Youzhny before. If Haase is going to get his first win over the Russian then this is his best hope. I’ll lay Youzhny below 1.30 .

Update: Youzhny broke straight away to give us our lay price and then haase controlled the match.

Haase won 6-3, 6-3.

 

 

WTA Marakech, 13:00Oprandi has beaten Vidagany in both their previous matches.  Both were on clay but they haven’t played for almost 4 years.

Vidagany plays on the ITF circuit and has played just one main tour, main draw match in the past 12 months. That was against Schiavone in the first round this week. She won surprisingly easily in straight sets. Schiavone was defending champion and whilst she hasn’t won many this season she has been playing reasonable tennis.

Oprandi reached the quarter finals in Bogota and reached the same stage in her last two ITF clay tournaments. She struggled in her opening set against Grymalska in the first round but came through in 3 sets.

As Oprandi is more or less bandage-less right now I have to favour her. I think Vidagany’s win over Schiavone was more down to the Italian being so bad almost anyone would have beaten her.

Oprandi starts at 1.64 but I will wait a game or two to see how they start the match. Oprandi at 1.80 or better feels like a good entry unless she shows poor form early in the set.

Update Oprandi won 6-2, 5-7, 6-2.

 

Barcelona, 17:00Thiem has taken a couple of decent scalps already this week. Today he is up against an excellent clay courter in Giraldo.

Giraldo had a virtual bye through the last round as the Fognini sulk rumbled on. That may not have helped Giraldo other than by helping save some energy.

Thiem’s 3 setter with Granollers will have sharpened his game nicely for this one.

I rate both these players highly for different reasons. Giraldo has proved himself to be an excellent player on clay and Thiem is the young player I picked out as having the best chance of becoming a top player. His game is maturing well.

This is Thiem’s fifth match as he had to come through the qualifying rounds. He is young so will recover quickly but clay can really take it out of you.

I am going with Giraldo’s clay experience over Thiem’s youth and energy.

They start around evens.

Update: A great effort by Thiem but that Giraldo experience proved the deciding factor. Thiem was a break up in the third set but Giraldo won 4-6, 6-4, 7-5.

 

 

   
Tennis Trading Course

24th April 2014 – Betcast interview and today’s trading previews. Read More »

Fix! Oh no hang on, they just know more than me!

With no tennis this week I have had to keep the old brain ticking over. I was going to fine tune my pre race horse trading but got sidelined by the FTSE 20 minute markets.

I had a look at these last year but was approaching it all wrong. I was trying to come up with a mechanical method to trade them and whilst it worked sometimes it wasn’t enough to be consistently profitable.

Over the last 12 months I have looked at other sports and markets and must have picked a few things up because when I looked at the financials again this week they seemed to make a bit more sense. Rather than trading like a bot I traded based on how I anticipated the markets moving at least in the first 5 or 10 minutes of the 20 minute market. I used to do a little market trading years ago as a bit of a hobby so wasn’t a complete newbie.

The betfair markets don’t really support big stakes so I limited myself to stakes of £20 to £50. Monday was a bit of a steep learning curve and cost me a few quid but Tuesday was much better and I made back what I had lost plus a bit more. Today has seen a profit of £75 which I am quite pleased with.

One thing I have learned today though is that I need to find a website or forum or something that gives a heads up of what significant financial news is due out each day. The 10am market looked to me that the price should rise so I placed my opening trades accordingly. Initially it looked like I was right and the trade briefly moved into profit. It didn’t hit my £5 to £10 target so I left it a little longer. The FTSE price was rising 2 or 3 points and all looked well but then the betfair  market started moving the other way. I rechecked the FTSE price which was hardly moving. WTF?? Something’s not right here….

The FTSE was just above its starting position yet the betfair market was trading as if the FTSE was collapsing. It was like they KNEW. There were 1 or 2 other idiots in the market who hadn’t got a scooby what was going on and I could have got out for a couple of pounds profit but when the chance was there I just thought the market had seen sense and I had been right all along so I missed both opportunities!

What the shrewdies knew was that the unemployment figures were out at 10am and they were shite. By the time this information flashed up on the website I was using it was too late and the stake was lost. £50.

So all in all I am quite happy with my profit but I need to get clued up!

   
Tennis Trading Course

Fix! Oh no hang on, they just know more than me! Read More »

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