There are a lot of people who don’t have time to trade tennis matches and just want “set and leave” picks.
I ran a tipping serve, “Shark Tips” for 4 years and was profitable for that period. The last year dragged the results down. I think I maybe lost interest a little that year. Tennis betting is stressful!
My research methods have improved a great deal, especially since using Tennis Profits for the research. I am interested to see if the improvement would convert to straight bets.
I am trying to find a selection method that can be automated. To qualify, a pick has to have stronger serve stats to qualify. After that, I am using a further 5 stats. In an ideal world, they would lead on all 6 stats but I’d expect their starting price to be poor value in the match odds market. The handicap markets don’t always have great liability but bets such as “to win in straight sets” could be an option.
I could just do the test in private but I think it makes things more “real” if I have a few eyes over my shoulder.
So this page is to record the picks. Prices are on Betfair.
8th January
If Wednesday taught me anything, it’s that if I think the underdog will be competitive, taking the handicap on the underdog is a better tip that taking 2-1 on the favourite. It covers more potential outcomes which is obviously why the 2-1 is the better price!
Hijikata v Perricard. Pick is Perricard
Perricard +1.5 g @ 1.99
Sasnovich v Samsonova. Pick is Samsonova
Samsonova +2.5 g @ 1.93
Shnaider v Keys. Pick is Keys
Keys -2.5 g @ 2.04
7th January
The 2 ATP picks yesterday were disappointing. Both Royer and Walton lost close first sets and didn’t handle the 2nd set well. Royer wasted a 3-0 lead and lost 7 of the next 9 games. Walton lost the first set with a late break and then fell apart.
The aim is to get a selection process that is mostly automated. Picking the actual bet will have to be manual.
Jovic v Bejlek. Pick is Jovic
Jovic 2-1 @ 4.8 LOST. Jovic won 7-6, 6-4.
Kalinskaya v Pegula. Pick is Pegula
Pegula -3.5 g @ 2.04 LOST. Pegula won in 3 sets. 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 (2-6? Seriously?)
Tauson v Sasnovich. Pick is Tauson
Tauson 2-1@ 4.40 LOST. Sasnovich won 6-2, 6-3. Awful match from Tauson.
Kostyuk v Putintseva. Pick is Kostyuk
Kostyuk -3.5 g @ 1.90 WON. Kostyuk won 6-7, 6-1, 6-0.
6th January
Not great on Tuesday although 3 of the 6 stats seem to be the most important ones to have. Early days but one in particular is very interesting.
WTA Brisbane – Kenin v Alexandrova. Pick is Alexandrova. Start price is 1.35.
Their previous matches went to 3 sets. Kenin +4.5 games could be decent. Alexandrova -4.5 games feels more risky
Kenin +4.5 games @ 1.90 WON
Alexandrova won 7-6, 6-3
ATP Brisbane – Hijikata v Walton. Pick is Walton.
Walton @ 2.16
ATP Hong Kong – Etcheverry v Royer. Pick is Royer
Royer @ 2.24 LOST
Etcheverry won 6-4, 7-5. Royer blew a 3-0 lead in set 2.
5th January
Yesterday was a pain as the markets had virtually no liquidity until much nearer the match start time. it looks better from tonight.
3 picks from WTA Brisbane
Gadecki v Li. Li is the pick. She starts at 1.60 in Match odds. LOST. Straight sets!
Li -3.5 games @ 2.06
Li leads 5 of the 6 stats.
Sasnovich v Blinkova. Pick is Sasnovich.
Sasnovich -2.5 games @ 1.93 WIN
Number of sets: 3 sets @ 2.40 LOST
Sasnovich starts at 1.74. For the Trading Tips email, I struggled to pick a winner for this one and actually went with Blinkova in 3 sets.
Sasnovich leads 4 of the 6 stats
Valentova v Kalinskaya. Pick is Valentova
Valentova place “keep bet” @ 2.10 (match odds) LOST. Kalinskaya in 2 sets. First set in particular was a bit of a mess
She leads all 6 of the stats
The first couple of weeks of the season can be unpredictable!
4th January
3 picks from WTA Brisbane. There is no money in the markets as I write this but I will update prices nearer to start time
EDIT: First main tour matches of the season and they start in the early hours. Liquidity will be late coming into the markets
Arango v Kessler. Kessler is the pick. Kessler to win 2-0 WON (unfortunately, I fell asleep and didn’t see the price!)
She leads 5 of the 6 stats. Her start price will be around 1.35 (match odds). (I will update it nearer to start time). Kessler 2-0 is an option.
Jacquemot v Tomljanovic. Pick is Jacquemot @ 2.42 LOST I was right to go with Tomljanovic in the Trading Tips due to her better recent form. Tomljanovic won in 2 sets.
Tricky one. Tomljanovic will probably start around 1.70 but the system pick is Jacquemot. She leads 4 of the 6 stats but recent stats favour Tomljanovic. I have gone for Tomljanovic in 3 sets for the Trading tips email.
So, Jacquemot will be around 2.42 at the start.
Cirstea v Pavlyuchenkova. Cirstea is the pick. Place Keeps Bet back at 1.90 NO BET. Cirstea won in 2 sets as predicted on the Trading Tips. She was never behind so didn’t reach the entry price.
Leads 5 of the 6 stats. Will start around 1.65
ATP Brisbane
Carabelli v Tien. Tien is the system pick but with no money in the handicap markets, NO BET . Tien won in 2 sets but needed a tie break in the first set.
He starts at 1.15. Leads all 6 of the stats. As I write this at 7:15 pm, Tien -4.5 games is around 1.70. Not great value