Daily match picks

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Download link: Trading Tips 11th June

WTA Hertogenbosch
Snigur 1.79 v Montgomery
Due to start at 2 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Snigur 1-0 (July 2019, grass, 3 sets). Grass win %’s favour Montgomery.

Snigur had a 2 sets win over Badosa as underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Udvardy in the 2nd round.
She had a CH 2nd round in June 2025.

Montgomery has come through the qual rounds. 3 sets win over Kasatkina as huge underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Minnen.
CH q final in June 2025.

12 month grass stats favour Montgomery on serve.
2026 stats on all surfaces also favour Montgomery on serve.
Lay Snigur around 1.50 and remove liability at 1.90.

Match prediction: Montgomery in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Snigur served first and held to 15. Montgomery then had to save a break point but also held.
1-0
1-1

The next 2 games were holds.
2-1
2-2

Snigur went 0-40 behind. She recovered to hold. Montgomery then held to 0.
3-2
3-3

Snigur again went 0-40 behind. This time, she saved 1 break point but was broken. Montgomery was priced at 1.56/1.57. I really didn’t want to go against her in this set.
3-4

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.
3-5
4-5

Montgomery faced a break point at 30-40, but recovered to hold.
4-6

Stats for the set favoured Montgomery. Her second serve points won percentage was a little below average.

After the first set, Montgomery was priced at 1.28/1.29.
In the pre match assessment, I had thought that this could go to 3 sets. I wanted to lay Montgomery. Snigur was serving first. I laid Montgomery with half stake at 1.29. I intended laying the other half after Snigur’s service game.

Snigur held to 15. I laid the other part of my stake at 1.32. I had expected more of a price move for a hold to 15!
1-0

Montgomery held to 0. Snigur then faced a break point at 30-40 but she recovered to hold.
1-1
2-1

Montgomery was broken to 15. I backed her with the same total stake that I had used for the lay. I backed at 1.54. This left me a free bet on Montgomery.
3-1

Snigur was broken to 30. Montgomery held to 15.
3-2
3-3

Snigur was broken again to 15. I hedged at 1.08.
3-4

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
3-5
4-5
4-6

Montgomery won 6-4, 6-4.