WTA Wuhan
Chwalinska v Sakkari 1.80
Due to start at 7 am
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2026, clay, Chwalinska in 3. Sakkari won on clay in 2025, 3 sets. Hard win %’s favour Sakkari.

Chwalinska had a 2 sets win over Sherif in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Bouzkova as underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Jovic as huge underdog in the 3rd round.
She has a poor record on hard. Most of her WTA wins in the last 2 seasons were in qual rounds.

Sakkari had a 2 sets win over Vekic in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Kostyuk as underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win in the 3rd round.
She reached the Final in Athens 2026, Semi finals in Doha 2026.

12 month and 2026 stats favour Sakkari overall.
Back Sakkari around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Sakkari in 3 sets.

Update: Sakkari was priced at 1.92 when the match started. She served first and was broken after saving a break point. I backed Sakkari at 2.26.
1-0

Chwalinska held to 30.
2-0

Sakkari went 0-30 behind. I hedged for the loss at 3.00. Sakkari saved 2 break points but was broken again. Sakkari looked irritated about something. Awful start.
3-0

Chwalinska held to 30. I was looking for signs of improvement from Sakkari. We have seen a few bizarre results and performances in the last couple of weeks and this could be another one.
4-0

Sakkari was broken to 30.
5-0

Chwalinska served out the set to 0.
6-0

Sakkari won 8 points on serve in that set.

After the set, Chwalinska was priced at 1.24/1.25.
Sakkari was my pre match favourite. 6-0 (and 6-1) first sets will often turn around in the second set, especially if the market favourite lost the set.

Sakkari was serving first in the second set. I waited for her to have her service game.
She faced a break point at 30-40. I laid Chwalinska at 1.18. She saved the break point and went on to hold serve.
0-1

Chwalinska saved 2 break points. She faced another and was broken. I removed some liability at 1.56. This left me with a smaller red on Chwalinska than I had at the start of the set.
0-2

Sakkari held to 0. That was a surprise! Chwalinska was now price at 1.80/1.81.
0-3

Chwalinska faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged at 2.02 on Chwalinska’s ladder. I now had green on both players. Chwalinska saved the break point and held serve.
1-3

There were no more breaks in the set although Sakkari faced a single break point when she served at 4-2.
3-6

Chwalinska still had decent stats in that second set. There was a remarkable improvement from Sakkari.

After the set, Sakkari was priced at 1.92/1.93.

Chwalinska served first in the final set. There were a few break points for both players but the first 11 games were holds.

Sakkari served at 5-6. She had a game point but couldn’t take it. She was eventually broken and Chwalinska took the match.

Chwalinska won 6-0, 3-6, 7-5.

ATP Shanghai
Fery 1.60 v Cilic
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Fery.

Fery reached the Final in Winston-Salem 2026.

Cilic reached the 2nd round last season.
He reached the 3rd Round in Miami 2026, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026.

12 month stats favour Cilic on serve and Fery on return.
Recent performances are better for Cilic.
Lay Fery around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.80. Chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Cilic in 3 sets.

Update: Cilic served first. The first 4 games were holds.
0-1
1-1
1-2
2-2

At 15-15, Fery’s price dropped to 1.45/1.46 and i placed a lay on him at 1.46. Cilic recovered to hold.
2-3

Fery was broken to 15. I removed liability, leaving the green on Cilic.
2-4

Cilic went 0-40 behind. He saved the break points but faced another and was broken.
3-4

Fery held to 0.
4-4

Cilic held to 0.
4-5

Fery faced a set point at 30-40. As the set had been very close, I hedged evenly at 1.99 on Cilic’s ladder. Fery saved the break point and went on to hold serve.
5-5

The next 2 games were holds.
5-6
6-6

The tie break was one sided and Fery won in 7-2.
7-6

Stats for the set favour Fery overall.

After the set, Fery was priced at 1.18/1.19.

Often, a tie break in the first set favours the pre match favourite in set two, regardless of who won the set. As it was a very tight set and Cilic had not converted his set point, I waited before laying Fery.

Fery served first and held to 30.
1-0

Cilic was broken to 30. I laid Fery at 1.05.
2-0

Fery held to 15.
3-0

Cilic was broken to 30. I had a decent green on Fery and a much larger green on Cilic. There was no point doing anything else with the trade unless Cilic made a comeback.
4-0

He did not make a comeback.

Fery won 7-6, 6-1.