Stronger overall results for Rybakina in the last 12 months. Her hard court results are a lot better.
Rybakina lost in the final last week in Shenzhen so she has done well to reach the final again this week. She dropped sets to Lizette Cabrera and Heather Watson which does suggest she is tired.
Zhang lost the opening set in the first 2 rounds. Laura Davis and Veronika Kudermetova were beaten in straight sets.
Zhang has slightly better stats for the tournament. I’m giving her the edge. Rybakina should start well enough but will run out of energy. Lay Zhang if she break in the early games. Back Zhang around 1.90.
Yastremska has won both their previous matches. The most recent was in the semi finals in Strasbourg in May 2019. She won in 2 close sets on clay. The other match was in an indoor ITF quarter final in September 2017. That one went to 3 sets after Sabalenka took the opening set.
They have both won 63% of their matches in the last year. They both won 65% of their hard court matches.
Sabalenka beat Simona Halep in the last round. She was broken 3 times but Halep had real problems on her second serve and was broken 6 times in 2 sets. Last week she was the defending champion in Shenzhen but lost in the second round to Kristyna Pliskova.
Yastremska beat Angelique Kerber in the second round when Kerber retired in the second set. In the last round she was up against Donna Vekic. Vekic has lost the opening set in all her matches this week and when Yastremska won the first set Vekic looked pretty fed up and didn’t really look up for yet another comeback. Yastremska won in straight sets. She faced just 1 break point which Vekic converted.
Stats for the tournament favour Yastremska on serve. She has held 93% of her service games compared to 80% for Sabalenka. Return stats favour Sabalenka
Not too much between them so we have some value on Yastremska. the sets are going to be tight as neither player will give a lot of chances on their service games.
We have a good chance of seeing 3 sets. Lay Sabalenka around 1.55 to 1.65 and remove some liability at 2.2. Lay the first set winner. Gut feeling is for Yastremska to progress to the final.
Update: Both players served extremely well but Yastremska always look a little more solid. She won 6-4, 7-6.