Daily match picks

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WTA Adelaide
Andreeva 1.54 v Mboko
Due to start at 2 am
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s are even.

Andreeva had an easy win over Bouzkova in the 2nd round. Very easy win over Joint in the Quarter final. 2 sets win over Shnaider in the Semi final.
She reached the Quarter final in Brisbane last week.
She reached the 4th Round in Beijing 2025, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Title in Indian Wells 2025, Title in Dubai 2025, 4th Round at the Australian Open 2025.

Mboko had a 3 sets win over Haddad Maia in the 1st round. 3rd set tie break win over Kalinskaya in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Keys as underdog in the Quarter final. Easy win over Birrell in the Semi final.
She reached the Title in Hong Kong 2025, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Title in Montreal 2025.

12 month stats favour Andreeva. Stats for their last 10 favour Mboko. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Andreeva around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Mboko in 3 sets.

Update: Mboko served first. She faced a break point but recovered to hold. In the next game, Andreeva was broken to 30. As I was expecting a tight match, I backed Andreeva at 2.26.

The next 2 games were holds of serve. Mboko served at 3-1 and was broken to 15. I removed most of my liability by laying Andreeva at 1.73.

Andreeva then had an easy hold to get to 3-3. In the next game, Mboko was broken to 15 and I hedged evenly at 1.28.

Andreeva had an easy hold in the next game and Mboko was broken for a third time to give Andreeva the set.
Mboko’s stats in the first set were weak. She won 50% of first serve points and 33% of 2nd serve points. She also had only 1 break point on Andreeva’s serve. She certainly wasn’t performing as expected!

When deciding whether or not to lay the set 1 winner, I look at how the losing player ended the set compared to how they started it. Mboko had been broken in her last 3 service games. I did not lay Andreeva at the start of set 2.

Andreeva started the second set with an easy hold and Mboko was then broken for the fourth time in a row. I need a good reason to turn down the chance to lay a player when they are a set and a break ahead. Mboko was really struggling and I stayed out.

Andreeva then held to 0. In her next service game, Mboko faced another break point in her next service game but did recover to hold. Andreeva held to 15. Mboko was then broken to 15 and Andreeva served out the match to 30.

Andreeva won 6-3, 6-1.

 

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WTA Hobart
Ruzic 1.51 v Sierra
Due to start at 6:30 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Ruzic 1-0 (Aug 2024, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %’s are better for Ruzic.

Ruzic had a 2 sets win in the 1st round as favourite. She reached the Quarter finals in Monterrey 2025.

Sierra had a 3 sets win over McNally in the 1st round as underdog. She reached the Quarter finals in Sao Paulo 2025.

12 month stats are stronger for Ruzic.
Back Ruzic around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Ruzic in 2 sets.

Update: Ruzic started at 1.53. She served first and was broken to 30. Her price only went to 1.81. Not quite at the target price. When this happens, I usually place a reduced stake back on the favourite who was just broken. I backed Ruzic at 1.81. In the next game, Sierra went 15-40 behind. Ruzic’s price dropped to 1.64 and I removed half the liability. Sierra saved the 2 break points but then faced another which Ruzic converted. Ruzic dropped to 1.56. I removed most of the liability.

The next 2 games were holds of serve. Ruzic served at 2-2 and was broken. As I already had a position on Ruzic, I added to that position with a back at 2.14. Liability was still fairly small.

The next 4 games were very easy holds. Sierra served at 5-4. She faced a break point at 30-40 and I removed my liability by laying Ruzic at 1.87, leaving the green on her.

Ruzic took the break point. In the next game, she held to 30. Sierra was broken to 0 in the next game to give Ruzic the set.

Pre match, I had expected Ruzic to win in straight sets but her stats in that set weren’t amazing. Her first serve % was low at 53% and whilst her 2nd serve points won % at 50% was around the tour average, it would need to be higher if she continued to struggle to find first serves.

I laid Ruzic using some of the profit from the first set. I laid at 1.22.

Ruzic was broken to 30 in the first game of the second set. I backed her at 1.41 with the same stake that I had used for the lay to give me a bigger free bet on Ruzic.

The next 4 games were holds of serve. Sierra served at 3-2 and was broken. They were now at 3-3. Ruzic was broken again in the next game. I backed Ruzic at 1.58. The price wouldn’t go massively higher than that in the set unless Sierra went a double break up. The next game was a long one but Ruzic broke back. I hedged at 1.29. The score was 4-4.

Ruzic had an easy hold in the next game and Sierra was broken to 15 to give the set and the match to Ruzic.

Ruzic won 7-5, 6-4.