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WTA Monterrey
Osorio 1.96 v Li
Due to start at 10 pm
Confidence rating 6.5/10

Li 3-2. Most recent Jan 2026, hard, Li in 3. She won on hard in Oct 2025, 2 sets. Osorio won on hard in Sep 2025, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2022, 3 sets. Li won on hard in 2021, 2 sets.

Osorio reached the 3rd Round in Indian Wells 2026, 3rd Round in Doha 2026, 3rd Round in Beijing 2025.

Li reached the 3rd Round in Doha 2026, Title in Guangzhou 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, Final in Cleveland 2025.

12 month and 2026 stats favour Li on serve. Return stats favour Osorio.
Stats for their last 10 favour Li on serve.
Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Osorio around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Li in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Li served first. She held to 0.
0-1

Osorio saved 2 break points. She faced another and was broken. I laid Li at 1.43.
0-2

Li was broken to 15. I removed liability at 1.68, leaving the green on Li.
1-2

Osorio saved a break point. She faced another and was broken.
1-3

Li held to 15.
1-4

Osorio was broken to 30.
1-5

Li served out the set to 15
1-6

Stats for the set were, not surprisingly, much better for Li. Osorio won just 56% of points on her first serve and won 1 of 10 points on her second serve.

Li was priced at 1.19/1.20 after the set.

Before the match, I had thought that Osorio would be competitive. She played a really poor opening set. I decided to let my free bet run.

Osorio served first and was broken to 30.
0-1

The next 2 games were holds.
0-2
1-2

Li saved 5 break points but faced another and was broken.
2-2

Osorio was broken to 15.
2-3

Li held to 15 and then broke Osorio to 30.
2-4
2-5

Li served for the match. She had to save a break point and held serve.
2-6

Li won 6-1, 6-2.