Daily match picks

This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
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The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Trading Tips file 6th May>>

WTA Rome
Bouzkova v Townsend 1.90
Due to start at 17:30
Confidence rating 7/10

Bouzkova 2-1. Most recent March 2026, hard, Townsend in 3 sets. Bouzkova won on hard in 2 tight sets in 2024. 3 sets win on hard in 2016. Clay win %’s favour Bouzkova.

Bouzkova reached the 3rd round last year.
Title in Bogota 2026, 3rd Round at the French Open 2025.

Townsend has come through the qual rounds. Easy win in the 1st round.
Limited success on clay.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Townsend on serve.
Good chance of 3 sets.
Recent results are better for Bouzkova.
Lay Townsend around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Bouzkova in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: I was not able to trade this match. I have rules that I follow for most situations. I will apply these to the match as if I HAD traded it.

Townsend served first and held to 30. In the next game, Bouzkova was broken to 15. As I expected 3 sets, I would have laid Townsend after the break.

Townsend served at 2-0 and went 15-40 behind. I would have removed liability by backing Townsend with the same stake that I used for the lay. This would leave a free bet on Townsend. Townsend recovered to hold.

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.

Bouzkova served at 1-4 and went 15-40 behind. I would have hedged at this point, probably around 1.20. Bouzkova recovered to hold.

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.

Townsend served for the set at 5-3. She faced a break point but recovered to hold.

Stats for the set were actually quite even.

Bouzkova served first in the second set. I would normally either wait for the set loser to have their service game before laying, or I might lay half stake at the start of the set and add the rest after that first service game. In this situation, as the stats were even, I would probably have laid half at the start of the set. The price will have been around 1.20.

The first 3 games were holds with no break points. I would have added the rest of my lay stake after the first game.

Townsend served at 1-2 and faced a break point. Her price would have been around 1.35 and I would have backed her using the same stake that I had used to lay her. This would have given me a profit on Bouzkova and a slightly bigger profit on Townsend. Townsend recovered to hold serve.

The next 3 games were holds.

Townsend served at 3-4. She again faced a break point at 30-40 and again, she recovered to hold serve.
4-4

If I had not had the opportunity to exit the trade when the score reached 4-4, I would have hedged at roughly 1.27 / 1.29.

The next 2 games were holds.

Bouzkova served at 5-5 and was broken to 0. Townsend then served for the match. She was taken to deuce but held serve.

Townsend won 6-3, 7-5.

 

This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
Get the Trading Tips emailed to you 7 days a week.

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Trading Tips file 5th May

WTA Rome
Cocciaretto 1.70 v Kraus
Due to start at 6 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Clay win %’s favour Kraus.

Cocciaretto reached the 2nd round last year.
2nd round in Rouen 2026. 3rd round in Charleston 2026. CH title in July. 2nd round of the French Open 2025.

Kraus has come through the qual rounds.
CH final in April. CH title in Nov.

12 month WTA stats favour Kraus overall. 12 month CH stats favour Cocciaretto. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Cocciaretto around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Cocciaretto in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Cocciaretto drifted from 1.70 to 1.82 pre match. Cocciaretto served first and was broken to 30. Her price moved to 2.20 and I backed her.
0-1

Kraus was broken to 15 and I removed half the liability at 1.79.
1-1

Cocciaretto then held to 0 and broke Kraus to 30. I removed the rest of my liability at 1.40.
2-1
3-1

The next 3 games were easy holds.
4-1
4-2
5-2

Kraus was broken to 0 to give the set to Cocciaretto. Cocciaretto’s price dropped to 1.19.
6-2

Stats for the set were obviously stronger for Cocciaretto. Her first serve percentage was a little low but overall, solid numbers. Kraus’ stats were very weak.

I had expected 3 sets pre match though it looked unlikely if the second set was the same as the first. A player, having easily won the first set can switch off a little at the start of the next set. Cocciaretto was serving first so I placed a small lay at 1.19. In a repeat of the first set, she was broken to 30. I backed her at 1.29 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This added a little to my free bet on Cocciaretto.
0-1

Krause was immediately broken back. I left the free bet to run.
1-1

The next 7 games were holds although Cocciaretto was down 15-40 in 2 of her service games.
2-1
2-2
3-2
3-3
4-3
4-4
5-4

Kraus served at 4-5. She saved 5 break points/match points. She faced a 6th and this time was broken.
6-4

Cocciaretto won 6-2, 6-4.