Daily match picks

Daily match tips

Free Tennis Tips, 17th October 2021

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
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ATP Indian Wells Final

Norrie v Basilashvili

Due to start at midnight

Norrie 1-0 (Mar 2021, indoor, 2 sets).

Long term hard win % favour Norrie. His results in the last year are a littler better. Basilashvili’s ROI in 2021 is much higher. Stats for the tournament favour Norrie for everything except service holds. Stats for their last 10 on hard courts favour Norrie.

In the last round Basilashvili served well and was not broken. He faced 7 bp. Fritz faced just 1 bp which was taken.

In Norrie’s last match he only faced 2 bp and was broken once (when a double break ahead). Dimitrov had opportunities to get back into the match but each time he fell short.

This can go either way. Norrie’s level dropped a little in the 2nd set against Dimitrov but Dimitrov was below the level he had showed in previous rounds so Norrie didn’t need to play at a high level. Basilashvili is serving well but still faced 7 bp. Norrie’s return game is stronger than Fritz’ and I’d expect him to convert some break chances.

Some value on Basilashvili. Norrie will need to match Basilashvili on serve. If he does that, his return game is stronger and he wins. Back Norrie above 2.00. Back him if he loses set 1.

Update: Norrie won the first break of serve to lead 2-1. Basilashvili broke back for 3-3. He won the next 3 games to take the set. In set 2, Basilashvili got the first break to lead 2-1 but was immediately broken back. Another late break for Norrie gave him the set. The deciding set was one sided. Norrie took a 3-1 lead and added another break near the end.

Norrie won 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.

   
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Free Tennis Tips, 12th October 2021

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
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WTA Indian Wells, Fourth round

Pegula v Svitolina

Due to start at 7 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent Feb 2021, hard, Pegula in 3. Svitolina won on hard in Jan 2021, 2 sets. They both won 34 of their last 50 on hard. In the last 12 months Svitolina has 2 more wins than Pegula.

Pegula has not lost a set so far. She beat Stephens and Paolini.

Svitolina lost a set to Cirstea in the last round. She reached the semis in 2019.

Stats for their last 10 on hard courts favour Pegula for everything except service holds. Slight edge to Pegula to win in 3 sets.

Lay Svitolina around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.20. Lay the set 1 winner.

   
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