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WTA Cincinnati, 3rd round

Kerber v Ostapenko

Due to start at 4 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent may 2021, clay, Ostapenko in 3. Kerber won on grass in 2018.

Both have won 30 of their last 50 matches. Kerber has the better long term win % on hard courts. Ostapenko has won 22 of her last 50 on hard. Stats for the tournament favour Ostapenko on serve! She has held 78% of service games. Kerber has been better on return.

Kerber has beaten Sakkari and Svitolina this week. Kerber has found some form in 2021 that I thought was beyond her. She reached the 3rd round in Rome on clay but it was the grass season that gave her back her confidence. She won her home tournament in Hamburg and backed that up with a semi at Wimbledon.

Ostapenko was a set down to Brady in the last round before Brady had to retire with a leg injury.

Back Kerber around 2.20 and remove liability around 1.60. Fair chance of 3 sets if Ostapenko continues to serve well.

Update: Tight first set. Kerber faced 2 bp when serving at 2-3 and we got our entry price. He held serve. In the next game Kerber had a break point and we had our exit price! Job done.

A late break gave the set to Ostapenko. Kerber ran away with set 2 and broke Ostapenko 3 times. Set 3 was a bit of a mess. Ostapenko took a 3-0 lead. Kerber broke back , was broken again and broke back again for 4-4. Another break for Kerber gave her the chance to serve for the match. Guess what? She was broken. yet another break meant that Kerber was serving for the match for a second time. This time she held to 0.

Kerber won 4-6, 6-2, 7-5.

WTA Cincinnati, 3rd round

Krejcikova v Muguruza

Due to start at 7:30 pm

Muguruza 1-0 (Mar 2021, hard, 2 sets). Long term hard win % favour Muguruza. She has 38 wins from her last 50. Krejcikova won 33 of 50.

Krejcikova beat Yastremska in 2 sets in the last round. She faced 7 break points but was not broken. She beat Kasatkina in the 1st round. Krejcikova looked a little vulnerable in the last round but Yast was not able to take advantage.

Muguruza was comfortable in the last round against Garcia. She faced just 2 break points and was not broken. She reached the q finals in Tokyo. In March, she won the title in Dubai and reached the final in Doha.

Back Muguruza around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Fair chance of 3 sets.

Update: Krejcikova made the better start and took the set 6-1. Laying the set winner proved profitable but it would have been tough to stay in the trade. There were no breaks in the second set and they went to a tie break. Muguruza took the set. Krejcikova was the stronger player in set 3.

Krejcikova won 6-1, 6-7, 6-2.

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