Shapovalov 3.55 v Nadal 1.38
Due to start at 3 am
H2H 3-3. Most recent Dec 2021, hard, Shapovalov in 3. He has won both their hard court matches with the other being in 2017.
Overall win percentages and win percentages on hard favour Nadal. He has lost just 1 set so far which was against Khachanov in the 3rd round.
Shapovalov has had just 1 straight sets win so far. That was, surprisingly, against Zverev in the 4th round.
Stats for the tournament all favour Nadal. Stats for their last 10 on hard favour Nadal although everything except service holds are quite even. Shap has held 86% of his service games so has a chance to keep some of the sets close. He is playing well enough to take at least 1 set.
Back Nadal around 2.00 to 2.10. Lay the set 1 winner.