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ATP Washington, hard. First round

Paul v Galan

Paul 3-0. Most recent Feb 2020, hard, 2 sets. Both his hard court wins were in 2020, 2 sets.

Long term hard results are much better for Paul. He has never lost a 1st round match in Washington.

Galan reached the 3rd round In Miami in March but other than that, most of his good results on hard were in Challengers.

Back Paul around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove some or all liability around 1.45.

ATP Washington, hard. First round

Nishikori v Querrey

Nish 6-4. Most recent Oct 2018, hard, Nishikori in 2 sets.

Long term hard win % are much better for Nishikori. He has better results in the last year.

Querrey’s recent form has been poor. He won 2 of 8 in the last 12 months on hard.

Nishikori reached the qfinals at the Olympics. He hasn’t had a huge amount of time to recover and travel to the US. That is reflected in the price. Back Nishikori around 1.95 and remove some or all liability around 1.40.

   

Mens Olympic Final

Zverev v Khachanov

Starts at 8:30 am

H2H 2-2. Most recent Aug 2019, hard, Khachanov in 2. He won indoors in 2018. Zverev’s last win was at the French Open 2018, 5 sets.

Long term overall win % are better for Zverev. He won 36 of his last 50. Khachanov won 30 of 50. Both also have strong hard court long term results. Zverev won 36 of 50 and Khachanov, 33 of 50. Strong results in 2021 on hard. Slight edge to Zverev.

Zverev has dropped just 1 set so far which was against Djokovic in the semi final.

Khachanov has faced tougher opponents overall this week. Schwartzman and Humbert were beaten in 3 sets but Nishioka also took a set from him in the first round. He dominated Carreno Busta in the semi final.

Both have served well, holding 91% of service games. Return stats for the tournament favour Zverev.

Khachanov will need his serve to be at its very best today. If it isn’t then Zverev will control the match. We could lay Zverev if he gets a very early break of serve and remove liability if Khachanov breaks back.

Back Zverev around 2.00 and remove liability around 1.50

***Please note that the Olympic final used to be the best of 5 sets but that has been changed from Tokyo to best of 3. ***