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Santiago Challenger
Boscardin Dias v Bueno 1.62
Due to start at 2 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2025, clay, Bueno in 2. Boscardin Dias won by retirement in Feb 2025. 12 month clay win 5’s favour Boscardin Dias. Bueno leads in 2026.

Boscardin Dias had an easy win in the 1st round. Tight 3 sets win in the 2nd round as slight underdog.
CH q final last week. CH q finals in Feb and Jan. CH final in Oct.

Bueno had a 2 sets win over Varillas in the 1st round as underdog. Easy win in the 2nd round as favourite.
CH semi in Feb. CH semi in Nov.

12 month stats favour Boscardin Dias on serve. Stats for their last 10 favour Dias on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Bueno around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Boscardin Dias in 3 sets.

Update: Boscardin Dias served first and held to 0. Bueno also held to 0. In the next game, Boscardin Dias was broken to 30. Liquidity was very low at 12K matched but there were traders involved in the match and no gaps between prices. I laid Bueno at 1.41.

In the next game, Bueno was broken to 15 and I removed most of my liability at 1.68, leaving the green on Boscardin Dias.

Boscardin Dias held to 30 in the next game. Bueno was then broken to 30 and I hedged at 1.65 on Boscardin Dias’ ladder (2.52 on Bueno’s ladder).
Bueno immediately broke back. he was broken again and broke back again! The set went to a tie break which Boscardin Dias won.

Stats for the set favoured Boscardin Dias.

Bueno served first in set 2. He was broken to 30. In the pre match assessment, I had expected 3 sets. I laid Boscardin Dias at 1.32.

In the next game, Boscardin Dias faced a break point but recovered to hold. Bueno then held to 0. In the next game, Boscardin Dias went 15-40 behind and I backed him at 1.54 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This gave me green on both players but a larger green on Boscardin Dias. He saved one of the break points but was broken.

In the next game, Bueno was broken. Boscardin Dias then held to 0 and then broke Bueno again to lead 5-2. He successfully served out the set.

Boscardin Dias won 7-6, 6-2.

 

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WTA Indian Wells
Muchova v Swiatek 1.59
Due to start at 6 pm
Confidence rating 6.5/10 Note, this should be a really tight match. Real value on Muchova. The 6.5 rating refers to the eventual winner prediction.

Swiatek 4-2. Most recent March 2025, hard, Swiatek in 2. 2 sets win on hard in Jan 2025. 3 sets win on hard in Aug 2023. She won on clay in 2023, 3 sets. Muchova’s wins were both 3 setters on clay in 2020 and 2019. Hard win %’s favour Swiatek.

Muchova reached the 4th round last year. 2 sets win over Bondar in the 2nd round. Easy win over Ruzic in the 3rd round.
Title in Doha 2026, 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025.

Swiatek reached the Semi final last season. 2 sets win over Day in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sakkari in the 3rd round.
Quarter finals in Doha 2026, Quarter finals at the Australian Open 2026, Quarter finals in Wuhan 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Title in Seoul 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, Title in Cincinnati 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, Quarter finals in Miami 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Muchova on serve. 2026 stats favour Muchova.
Very good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Swiatek around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.

Match prediction: Muchova in 3 sets.

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Update: Swiatek served first and held to 30. The next 4 games were holds. Muchova served at 2-3 and was broken after saving a break point. I laid Swiatek at 1.23.

In the next game, Swiatek held to 15. Muchova served at 2-5 and went 0-30 behind. I exited at 1.14. Muchova was broken to 0.

Muchova had lost the last 4 games. I had expected much more from her but she seemed clueless in that set.

Swiatek served first in the second set and held to 0. She then broke Muchova to 15.

Swiatek’s serve stats were particularly strong up to this point and Muchova was not even competing. I did not enter after the break and waited to see if Muchova could give me a reason to enter again.

Muchova did not win a game in set 2. This was never going to be an easy match for her but I did expect it to be a lot closer!

Swiatek won 6-2, 6-0.