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US Open
Vondrousova v Paolini 1.92
Due to start at 6 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Vondrousova 1-0 (Apr 2017, indoors, 2 sets). Hard win %’s are better for Paolini.

Vondrousova had a 2 close sets win over Selekhmeteva in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kessler in the 2nd round. She reached 2nd rounds in Cincinnati, Montreal and Dubai. Quarter finals in Abu Dhabi 2025.

Paolini reached the 4th round last season. 2 sets win over Avaia in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Jovic in the 2nd round. Final in Cincinnati, Semi finals in Miami 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025, Quarter finals in Wuhan 2024.

Stats for their last 10 on hard favour Paolini on serve. She has the better ROI. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Vondrousova around 1.60 and remove liability around 2.10.

Update: Tough one! There were no breaks in the first set. Paolini arguably looked the better player and didn’t face a break point. Vondrousova faced 2 early break points and had improved her serve by the time they moved into a tie break.

Paolini played a poor tie break and Vondrousova took the set.

I laid Vondrousova who would service first in set 2. She held serve. Paolini had an easy hold in her first service game but would be broken in her second game. I probably should have taken the red at this point but as I favoured her pre match, I laid again after the break, though not adding much more liability.

Paolini pretty much fell apart after that. She may as well have retired. I exited when she looked like being broken again.

Vondrousova won 7-6, 6-1.

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US Open
Brooksby v Cobolli 1.64
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Brooksby 1-0 (May 2022, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %’s are quite even.

Brooksby had a 5 sets win over Vukic in the 1st round. He reached the 3rd round in Cincinnati. 3rd Round in Indian Wells 2025.

Cobolli reached the 3rd round last season. 5 sets win over Passaro in the 1st round. 4th Round in Toronto 2025, Quarter finals in Beijing 2024.

12 month and 2025 stats favour Cobolli on serve.
Back Cobolli around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay set 1 winner. 4 or 5 sets.

Update: Cobolli made hard work of almost every service game in the first set. He was broken in the 3rd game. Brooksby then held to lead 3-1. I backed Cobolli. He broke back to get to 4-4. As we were close to the end of the set and he wasn’t serving well, I hedged evenly.

Cobolli was broken again serving at 5-5. Brooksby successfully served for the set.

Cobolli served first in set 2. He had not been impressive on serve in that first set but as I had some green from the set, I laid Brooksby with part stake. Cobolli was broken in the first game of the 2nd set.

When a player is a set and a break ahead, it is an excellent time to lay them. The price is good and they often relax a little and let their opponent back into the set. Cobolli was also my pre match pick to win so I added to my lay of Brooksby.

Brooksby held easily to lead 2-0. Cobolli had another tough service game but held. He then easily broke Brooksby in the next game to get back to 2-2. Cobolli held to 0 in the next game! Maybe things were changing. I removed most of my liability, leaving the green on Cobolli.

Brooksby was broken again in the next game and Cobolli held to love to get to 5-2. No more breaks in the set which Cobolli won 6-3. I hedged evenly.

I was not involved in the match again until Cobolli was serving for the match in the 5th set. I laid Cobolli and he was broken. He took the set and the match in a tie break.

Cobolli won 5-7, 6-3, 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (3)

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