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WTA Challenger, Austin
Lamens v Rakhimova 1.57
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Lamens 2-0. Most recent Feb 2025, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in Dec 2024, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Rakhimova.

Lamens reached the Quarter finals in Seoul 2025, 3rd Round in Montreal 2025.

Rakhimova reached the 2nd round in Indian Wells. Most of her wins in 2026 ere in qual rounds.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Rakhimova.
Lamens has won 1 of her last 10.
Back Rakhimova around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Rakhimova in 2 sets.

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Update: Rakhimova started at 1.45. Liquidity was very low at the start, (2100). She served first and was taken to deuce but held. In the next game, She broke Lamens to 0. I thought Lamens may be able to compete in 1 of the sets so laid Rakhimova at 1.22.

In the next game, Lamens broke back. I removed liability at 1.37, leaving the profit on Rakhimova. The next 2 games were holds.

Lamens served at 2-3 and was broken. I left the free bet to run. In the next game, Lamens again immediately broke back! It was a break to 15. The next 3 games were holds. The score was 5-5. I still had my free bet on Rakhimova.

Rakhimova served next and was broken after saving 1 break point. Lamens served for the set at 6-5. She faced a break point but held to take the set.

Neither player had amazing stats in that set. Low first serve percentage of 54% for Lamens and her second serve points won were a little low at 38%. That isn’t a good combination. Rakhimova had a decent first serve percentage of 65% but was only winning 57% of points on those first serves.

Rakhimova served first in the second set. I waited for her to have her service game. The main options in this situation, where the set loser serves first in the next set are:
I could have laid Lamens at the start of the set.
I could lay half at the start of the set and add the other half after Rakhimova’s service game.
The third main option is to wait for her to have her service game before laying. Lamens could be laid at 1.55 after the first set.

Rakhimova saved 2 break points and had a game point but was broken. I laid Lamens at 1.36. A played who goes a set and a break ahead often relaxes a little and allows their opponent back into the set.

In the next game, Lamens was broken to 30. Rakhimova then held to 30. Lamens was then broken yet again and I hedged at 1.86 on Rakhimova’s ladder (2.10 on Lamens). Liquidity was still low at 32800 but enough traders were in the market. I was not going crazy with the stake size.

Lamens would be broken again and Rakhimova took the set 6-1. There was also a short rain delay towards the end of the set.

Rakhimova was at 1.48 after the second set.

In set 3, Rakhimova broke Lamens to 15 in the third game. Rakhimova’s price dropped at 1.30. Using some of the profit, I laid her.

3 games later, Lamens broke back to get to 3-3 and I hedged.

The next 2 games were holds. Lamens served at 4-5 and was broken to 0. Rakhimova successfully served out the set.

Rakhimova won 5-7, 6-1, 6-4.

 

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WTA Indian Wells
Osorio v Osaka 1.60
Due to start at 8 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2025, hard, Osorio in 2. Osaka won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Osaka.

Osorio reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Stephens in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Jovic in the 2nd round. She saved 3 match points.
3rd Round in Doha 2026, 3rd Round in Beijing 2025.

Osaka lost in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win over Kasintseva in the 2nd round.
3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026, Quarter finals in Osaka 2025, Semi finals at the US Open 2025, Final in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Osaka on serve.
Back Osaka around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Osaka in 2 sets.

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Update: Osaka served first. She held to 15. In the next game, Osorio was broken to 30. As I was expecting a straight sets win for Osaka, I stayed out of the market. Osaka then held to 30 and then broke Osorio again to 30.

If you’re not in the market already, laying the player who is a double break ahead is a low risk entry. The leading player often relaxes a little and their opponent can get at least one of the breaks back. I laid Osaka at 1.16.

In the next game, Osaka was broken to 30. I backed her at 1.24 with the same stake that I used for the lay. This left me a free bet on Osaka.

In the next game, Osorio was broken for the third time. Osaka successfully served for the set.

Osorio’s stats weren’t great in that set but I have seen worse! I did not lay Osaka at the start of set 2.

The first 5 games were holds. Osorio faced 2 break points. Osaka faced 3 break points in the 4th game. Osaka served at 2-3 and was broken to 30. Osorio then held to lead 5-2 after 3 deuces.

I placed a small back on Osaka at 1.58. She then held serve to 30. Osorio served for the set at 5-3. She was 15-40 behind and I removed liability at 1.32, leaving all the green on Osaka’s ladder.

Osorio recovered to hold and take the set. After the set, Osaka was priced at 1.65. I let my free bet on Osaka run into the 3rd set.

Osaka served first in the third set and held to 15. She then broke Osorio to 15. A hold to 0 then gave Osaka a 3-0 lead. I just left the free bet to run. Osorio would be broken again before the end of the set.

Osaka won 6-1, 3-6, 6-1.