Trading Tip – ATP US Open, Michelsen v Merida Aguilar

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

ATP US Open
Michelsen 1.67 v Merida Aguilar
Due to start at 8:30 pm

Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent Aug 2026, hard, Aguilar in 3. Michelsen won on hard in March 2026, 2 sets. Hard win %’s slightly favour Aguilar.

Michelsen lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win over Cina in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Nakashima as underdog in the 2nd round.
He reached the 3rd Round in Montreal 2026, Quarter finals in Washington 2026, 4th Round in Miami 2026, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026.

Aguilar lost in the qual rounds last year. 3 sets win over Fucsovics in the 1st round. 4 sets win over Rublev in the 2nd round as underdog.
He reached the 3rd Round in Cincinnati 2026, Quarter finals in Montreal 2026.

12 month and 2026 stats favour Michelsen on serve and strongly favour Nakashima on return.
4 sets.
Back Michelsen around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.

Match prediction: Michelsen in 4 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Michelsen served first. The first 6 games were holds of serve with just 1 break point. That was against Michelsen in the 4th game.
3-3

Michelsen was broken to 15. I backed Michelsen at 2.28.
3-4

Aguilar was broken to 30. I removed liability at 1.78, Leaving the profit on Michelsen.
4-4

The next 4 games were holds and they went into a tie break.
6-6

Michelsen took a close tie break 7 points to 5.
7-6

Stats for the set were fairly even and better for Aguilar on second serve points won.
After the set, Michelsen was priced at 1.38/1.39.

set 1 stats

Aguilar served first in the second set. I placed a small lay on Michelsen at 1.38. The first 6 games were holds.
3-3

Aguilar faced a break point at 30-40. He saved the break point but faced another and was broken. I only had a small liability so stayed in the lay.
4-3

Michelsen went 15-40 behind. I hedged at 1.26. That had taken away some of my profit from the first set.
Michelsen saved the break points and held.
5-3

The next 2 games were holds and Michelsen took the set.
5-4
6-4

Stats for the set had improved for Michelsen. Aguilar’s first serve percentage had dropped to just 47%.

After the set, Michelsen was priced at 1.09/1.10

set 2 stats

In a best of 5 sets match, laying the player who is 2-0 up in sets can be a great entry. On this occasion, I was ready for some sleep so I left with my small profit.

Aguilar served first and was broken. There were no break points in the next 7 games Then, Aguilar was broken again to give the set and the match to Michelsen.

Michelsen won 7-6, 6-4, 6-3.

Trading Tip - ATP US Open, Michelsen v Merida Aguilar 1

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Trading Tip – WTA US Open, Li v Vekic

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

WTA US Open
Li 1.64 v Vekic
Due to start at 9:30 pm

Confidence rating 7/10

Li 1-0 (Sep 2021, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %’s favour Li.

Li reached the 4th round last year. 2 sets win over Ruzic in the 1st round.
She reached the Semi finals in Monterrey 2026, 3rd Round in Doha 2026, Title in Guangzhou 2025.

Vekic reached the 2nd round last season. 3 sets win over Gibson in the 1st round.
She reached a CH final in Jan. Quarter finals in Chennai 2025.

12 month and 2026 stats strongly favour Li. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Li around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Li in 3 sets

Update: I wasn’t able to trade this match as it was delayed. I will apply my usual rules to the match as if I HAD traded it.

Li served first. She had to save a break point but she held serve.
1-0

The next 2 games were holds.
1-1
2-1

Vekic had to save a break point but recovered to hold.
2-2

Li was broken to 30. i would have backed Li.
2-3

The next 3 games were holds.
2-4
3-4
3-5

Li went 15-40 behind. 2 set points for Vekic. As I would have intended to add to my position with a lay of Vekic if she took the set, I would have laid Vekic at 15-40.
Li recovered to hold.
4-5

Vekic was broken to 30. I’d have hedged.
5-5

Li was immediately broken again. When a player is broken when serving for the set, if they then earn the chance to serve for it again, they usually make a much better job of it. I’d have waited for set 2. Vekic easily served out the set.
5-6
5-7

Stats for the set were stronger for Vekic overall.

set 1 stats

Li served first in the second set so I would have waited for her to have her service game before laying Vekic.
Li held to 30. I would have laid Vekic.
1-0

The next 6 games were holds although Li faced a break point in 2 of her service games.
4-3

Vekic went 15-40 behind. I would probably have hedged evenly. She saved 3 break points in that game before holding.
4-4

The next 4 games were holds and they went into a tie break.
Li took the tie break 7-4.
7-6

Decent stats for both players. Li’s first serve percentage was a little low at 55%.

Set 2 stats

In a WTA third set, I wait to lay the player who breaks first, as long as the price is decent.
Whilst both player faced break points, the first 8 games were holds.
4-4

Vekic was broken to 15. As I would have had profit from previous rounds, I may have placed a small lay of Li when she served for the match. There was only 1 break in the set so I’d be a little more likely not to take the lay. I would probably have left the match mid way through the third set if I was happy with the profit.
6-4

Li won 5-7, 7-6, 6-4.

Trading Tip - WTA US Open, Li v Vekic 2

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