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WTA Indian Wells
Osorio v Osaka 1.60
Due to start at 8 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent Mar 2025, hard, Osorio in 2. Osaka won on hard in 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Osaka.

Osorio reached the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Stephens in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Jovic in the 2nd round. She saved 3 match points.
3rd Round in Doha 2026, 3rd Round in Beijing 2025.

Osaka lost in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win over Kasintseva in the 2nd round.
3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026, Quarter finals in Osaka 2025, Semi finals at the US Open 2025, Final in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Osaka on serve.
Back Osaka around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Osaka in 2 sets.

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Update: Osaka served first. She held to 15. In the next game, Osorio was broken to 30. As I was expecting a straight sets win for Osaka, I stayed out of the market. Osaka then held to 30 and then broke Osorio again to 30.

If you’re not in the market already, laying the player who is a double break ahead is a low risk entry. The leading player often relaxes a little and their opponent can get at least one of the breaks back. I laid Osaka at 1.16.

In the next game, Osaka was broken to 30. I backed her at 1.24 with the same stake that I used for the lay. This left me a free bet on Osaka.

In the next game, Osorio was broken for the third time. Osaka successfully served for the set.

Osorio’s stats weren’t great in that set but I have seen worse! I did not lay Osaka at the start of set 2.

The first 5 games were holds. Osorio faced 2 break points. Osaka faced 3 break points in the 4th game. Osaka served at 2-3 and was broken to 30. Osorio then held to lead 5-2 after 3 deuces.

I placed a small back on Osaka at 1.58. She then held serve to 30. Osorio served for the set at 5-3. She was 15-40 behind and I removed liability at 1.32, leaving all the green on Osaka’s ladder.

Osorio recovered to hold and take the set. After the set, Osaka was priced at 1.65. I let my free bet on Osaka run into the 3rd set.

Osaka served first in the third set and held to 15. She then broke Osorio to 15. A hold to 0 then gave Osaka a 3-0 lead. I just left the free bet to run. Osorio would be broken again before the end of the set.

Osaka won 6-1, 3-6, 6-1.

 

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WTA Indian Wells
Sakkari 1.53 v Tagger
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Tagger.

Sakkari reached the 3rd round last year.
Semi finals in Doha 2026, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Quarter finals in Washington 2025.

Tagger had a 2 sets win over Gracheva in the 1st round.
She reached a CH final in Feb. ITF title in Jan. Final in Jiujiang 2025.

12 month stats favour Sakkari on serve. Stats for their last 10 favour her overall.
Recent performances favour Sakkari. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Sakkari around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Sakkari in 3 sets.

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Update: Sakkari served first. She faced 2 break points but recovered to hold. The next 2 games were easy holds.

In the next game, Tagger served at 1-2. She went 15-40 behind. I laid Sakkari at 1.30. I like to enter at 15-40 or 0-40 as there is a chance that the server will recover. In this case, Tagger DID recover to hold serve. I removed liability at 1.50, leaving the green on Sakkari.

The next 7 games were all holds. The only break points were when Sakkari served at 3-3, She faced 2 break points but recovered. Tagger served at 5-6 and was broken to 15 to hand Sakkari the set. Sakkari was now priced 1.14.

Stats for the set were decent for both

I favoured Sakkari to win but Tagger had kept things close in the first set. I wanted to lay Sakkari if she went a set and a break ahead.

Sakkari served first and held to 30. In the next game, Tagger was broken to 15. I laid Sakkari with some of the profit from set 1 at 1.05.

In the next game, Sakkari went 15-40 behind and I backed Sakkari at 1.11 using the same stake that I had used to lay her. This gave me a slightly better free bet on Sakkari. She recovered to hold. Tagger did not win a game in the second set.

Sakkari won 7-5, 6-0.