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WTA Rouen
Boulter 1.89 v Cristian
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent Sep 2022, indoors, Boulter in 2. Cristian won on hard in 2018, 3rd set tie break.

Boulter had an easy win in the 1st round.
She reached the 2nd round of the French Open 2025. CH title in May. 2nd round in Madrid 2025.

Cristian reached the 2nd round last season. 3 sets win as strong favourite in the 1st round.
Semi finals in Iasi 2025, 3rd Round at the French Open 2025, Final in Rabat 2025, 3rd Round in Rome 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Cristian overall.
Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Boulter around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Cristian in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Boulter started the match priced at 1.74.

Cristian served first and held to 30. In the next game, Boulter faced a break point at 30-40. She saved that break point but faced another and was broken. I laid Cristian at 1.68.

The next 3 games were easy holds. In the next game, Boulter went 15-40 behind. I added to my position by laying Cristian at 1.42 which was close to where I’d expect the market to be if Cristian took the set. Boulter saved 3 break points in that game and held serve.

In the next game, Cristian was broken to 30. I hedged at 2.04 on Cristian’s ladder.

The next 3 games were holds. Cristian served at 5-5 and was broken to 30. I placed a small lay on Boulter at 1.43. In the next game, Boulter served for the set and was broken and I hedged at 1.87.

The set went into a tie break. Boulter took a triple break, 5-0 lead. Cristian got the 3 mini breaks back, only to be broken again at 5-6 to give Boulter the set.

Stats were a little better for Boulter in that set.

Boulter served first in the second set. I laid her at 1.27. She was broken to 15. I backed her at 1.52 to leave the same green from set 1 on Boulter and a larger green on Cristian.

The next 6 games were holds. There was just 1 break point on the Cristian serve when she served at 3-2.

Cristian served at 4-3 and went 15-40 behind. She faced and saved 8 break points in that game and managed to hold. I hedged evenly at 1.76.

The next 2 games were holds and Cristian took the set.

As it was getting late and I needed to be up early on Thursday, I did not get involved in the third set. That was probably a good thing as it was a very one sided set in favour of Boulter. From 1-1, she won the next 5 games!

Boulter won 7-6, 4-6, 6-1.

 

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ATP Munich
Cilic 1.71 v Altmaier
Due to start at 2 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Cilic 1-0 (Jan 2026, hard, straight sets). Clay win %’s favour Altmaier.

Cilic reached the 2nd round in Monte Carlo.

Altmaier reached the 2nd round last season.
Quarter finals in Bucharest 2026, 4th Round at the French Open 2025, 3rd Round in Monte Carlo 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Altmaier on serve.
Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Cilic around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.80.

Match prediction: Altmaier in 3 sets

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Cilic ‘s start price was 1.65. Altmaier served first. The first 4 games were holds of serve. Altmaier served at 2-2. He faced 2 break points but recovered to hold.

In the next game, Cilic was broken to 30. I placed a small lay on Altmaier at 1.45. Altmaier then held to 15. Cilic served at 2-5 and went 15-40 behind. I hedged for a loss at 1.29. Cilic was broken and Altmaier won the set.

Stats for the set were weak for Cilic. 56% of points won on first serve and 33% on second serve. Altmaier’s stats were much stronger. 72% of first serve points won and 75% of second serve points won. Both had faced 2 break points.

I did not want to go against my favoured player. Poor serve stats from Cilic was a bad sign. I did not enter again and accepted the small loss.

The second set was very tight. Only one game contained break points. Cilic served at 2-3. He saved the first break point but Altmaier took the second one. That was enough to give him the set and the match.

Altmaier won 6-2, 6-3.