Free Tennis Tips

US Open
Zverev 1.32 v Aliassime
Due to start at midnight
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Zverev 7-2. Most recent March 2024, hard, Zverev in 2. He won on clay in May 2022, 2 sets. Aliassime won on hard in Jan 2022, 3 sets. Hard win %’s are better for Zverev.

Zverev reached the Quarter final last year. 3 sets win over Tabilo in the 1st round. 3 close sets win in the 2nd round. Semi finals in Cincinnati 2025, Semi finals in Toronto 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, Final at the Australian Open 2025, 4th Round in Shanghai 2024.

Aliassime lost in the 1st round last season. 3 close sets win over Harris in the 1st round. 3 close sets win in the 2nd round. Quarter finals in Cincinnati 2025, Final in Dubai 2025, Semi finals in Doha 2025, Title in Adelaide 2025.

12 month ad 2025 stats are stronger for Zverev. 4 sets.
Back Zverev around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.50.

Update: Zverev broke in the first game of the match. I laid him. 3 games later, Aliassime broke back. I removed liability, leaving profit on Zverev. Zverev broke again and went on to take the set.
I expect Aliassime to take a set so I laid Zverev at the start of set 2. My liability was low.

It was a very close set with no break points. I stayed in the lay as my risk was low. Aliassime took the tie break after saving a set point.

Zverev served first in set 3. He was broken and i hedged evenly. Aliassime held to lead 2-0 and I backed Zverev. In the 4th game of the set, Aliassime went 15-40 behind and I removed my liability, leaving profit on Zverev. Unfortunately, Zverev did not break. Aliassime went on to take the set.

If I didn’t already have a position on Zverev, I would have backed. I stuck with the free bet on him but Aliassime took the next set and the match with a single break.

Aliassime won 4-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-4.

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US Open
Vondrousova v Paolini 1.92
Due to start at 6 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Vondrousova 1-0 (Apr 2017, indoors, 2 sets). Hard win %’s are better for Paolini.

Vondrousova had a 2 close sets win over Selekhmeteva in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Kessler in the 2nd round. She reached 2nd rounds in Cincinnati, Montreal and Dubai. Quarter finals in Abu Dhabi 2025.

Paolini reached the 4th round last season. 2 sets win over Avaia in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Jovic in the 2nd round. Final in Cincinnati, Semi finals in Miami 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025, Quarter finals in Wuhan 2024.

Stats for their last 10 on hard favour Paolini on serve. She has the better ROI. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Vondrousova around 1.60 and remove liability around 2.10.

Update: Tough one! There were no breaks in the first set. Paolini arguably looked the better player and didn’t face a break point. Vondrousova faced 2 early break points and had improved her serve by the time they moved into a tie break.

Paolini played a poor tie break and Vondrousova took the set.

I laid Vondrousova who would service first in set 2. She held serve. Paolini had an easy hold in her first service game but would be broken in her second game. I probably should have taken the red at this point but as I favoured her pre match, I laid again after the break, though not adding much more liability.

Paolini pretty much fell apart after that. She may as well have retired. I exited when she looked like being broken again.

Vondrousova won 7-6, 6-1.

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