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ATP Buenos Aires
Cerundolo 1.56 v Etcheverry
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Cerundolo 6-4. Most recent July 2025, hard, Cerundolo in 2. Cerundolo won on clay in Feb 2025, 3 sets. Etcheverry won on hard in Aug 2024, 5 sets. All their other matches were on clay. Etcheverry won in March 2023, 3 sets. Cerundolo won in Aug 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Cerundolo.

Cerundolo reached the Final last year. 2 sets win over Dellien in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Kopriva in the q final.
Semi finals in Bastad 2025, 4th Round in Rome 2025, Semi finals in Madrid 2025, Semi finals in Munich 2025, Semi finals in Santiago 2025, Quarter finals in Rio de Janeiro 2025.

Etcheverry lost in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win as favourite in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Burruchaga in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Tabilo in the q final.
Semi finals in Hamburg 2025, Quarter finals in Santiago 2025.

12 month clay stats and stats for their last 10 are better for Etcheverry on serve. Good chance of 3 sets. Stats for the tournament are stronger for Cerundolo on serve.
Back Cerundolo around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Cerundolo in 3 sets.

Update: Cerundolo’s price dropped to 1.43 pre match. Cerundolo served first. He faced a break point in a long game but recovered to hold. Easy hold for Etcheverry in the second game. Cerundolo also had an easy service hold to lead 2-1.

In the next game, Etcheverry was broken after leading 40-0. As I expected a close match, I laid Cerundolo but didn’t use a large stake as I was confident that Cerundolo would win. I laid Cerundolo at 1.24. When Cerundolo had an easy hold to get to 5-2, I hedged evenly for a small loss at 1.17. There were no more break points in the set and Cerundolo took the set 6-3.

In the first set, Cerundolo’s stats were stronger. Their first serve percentages were quite even. First serve points won percentages and second serve points won percentages were better for Cerundolo. Etcheverry’ s stats were decent.

I laid Cerundolo at the start of set 2 at 1.15. There were no break points in the first 8 games. If I have laid the set one winner and they get to 4-4, I exit. This can take away a chance of a profit if there is a late break for the first set loser but more often than not, this exit strategy saves me. In this case, I was able to exit at 1.17. This left me a small loss for the match.

Etcheverry served at 4-4 and faced 2 break points but recovered to hold. Cerundolo then held to 0. Etcheverry was broken in the next game to 15. Cerundolo successfully served out the set and the match.

Cerundolo won 6-3, 7-5.

 

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WTA Doha
Sakkari v Muchova 1.44
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Muchova 4-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Muchova in 3. She won their last 4 matches. Her other wins were all on clay in 2023, 2022 and 2021. Sakkari won on hard in 2016, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Muchova.

Sakkari reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over a poor Paolini in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Gracheva in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Swiatek in the q final.
3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Quarter finals in Washington 2025.

Muchova had an easy win over Cristian in the 1st round. Easy win over Valentova in the 2nd round. Her opponent, Pliskova, retired in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Kalinskaya in the q final.
She reached the 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Semi finals in Dubai 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Muchova on serve.
Back Muchova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Muchova in 3 sets.

Update: Sakkari served first and held to 0. Muchova held to 30. In the next game, Sakkari saved 2 break points but was broken on the third one. Muchova’s price dropped to 1.25. As I expected a close match, I laid Muchova at 1.25.

In the next game, Muchova went 0-40 behind. I removed half my liability at 1.40. She saved the 3 break points but faced another one. This time, Sakkari took the break point.

The next 2 games were holds. Sakkari served at 3-3 and went 15-40 behind. I removed the rest of my liability at 1.27 to leave a free bet on Muchova. Sakkari saved 4 break points in that game and held serve. In the next game, Muchova was broken to 0. Sakkari then held to 0 to take the set.

Stats for the set favoured Sakkari. Excellent first serve percentage of 73%. Points won on first serve were on the low side at 59% and second serve points won were well above average at 67%. Muchova also had a first serve percentage of 73% but she won just 50% of first serve points and 50% of second serve points.

I already had the free bet on Muchova. I try to stay with my pre match assessment of a match as much as possible so was hoping Muchova would improve in this set.

Muchova served first in set 2 so I waited for her to have her service game. She was broken to 30. I added to my position by laying Sakkari at 1.35.

In the next game, Sakkari had an easy hold to 15. Muchova then held to 30. Sakkari served at 2-1. She went 0-40 behind. I removed my liability at 1.63 to leave a bigger free bet on Muchova. Sakkari saved one of the break points but was broken on the next one.

Muchova had a hold to 30 in the next game. Sakkari was broken again in the next game. Muchova held to 30 to lead 5-2. I hedged evenly at 1.51 on Muchova’s ladder (2.98 on Sakkari’s ladder).

Muchova served for the set and was broken to 15. Sakkari was broken in the next game to 15 which gave the set to Muchova.

That was the last trade I made on the match. Muchova easily took the third set 6-1.

Muchova won 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.