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WTA Quito Challenger
Erjavec 1.79 v Jeanjean
Due to start at 4 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Erjavec 1-0 (June 2025, grass, 3 sets). Clay win %’s are fairly even.

Erjavec had a 2 sets win in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Pigossi in the 2nd round.
She reached the final in Buenos Aires last week. 2 CH titles in Sep. ITF final in Aug. CH q final in June. CH semi in March.

Jeanjean had an easy win in the 1st round as favourite. 2 sets win in the 2nd round.
She reached a CH final in Nov. ITF semi in July. 2nd round of the French Open. CH semi in May. Quarter final in Bogota. CH semi in Dec.

12 month WTA and CH stats favour Erjavec. Jeanjean has not been broken this week. Recent performances are better for Erjavec.
Lay Jeanjean around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Lay set 1 winner.

Match prediction: Erjavec in 3 sets.

Update: There were no break points in the first 3 games. In the 4th game, Erjavec was broken to 15. Jeanjean hit my target price of 1.65 and I laid her.

In the next game, Jeanjean went 0-40 behind. I removed the liability at 1.99 on Erjavec’s ladder, leaving a free bet on her.

The next 2 games were holds of serve. Erjavec served at 3-4. In a tight game that saw her have 3 games points, she was eventually broken. Jeanjean would serve for the set at 5-3. I stuck with my free bet on Erjavec as I favoured her pre match.
Jeanjean easily served out the set.

Erjavec’s stats in the first set were poor. Low first serve % of 52%. 53% of first serve points won. 43% of points won on 2nd serve isn’t terrible but is below average. I was not in a rush to add to my position until I saw if she was going to improve in the next set.

Jeanjean could be laid at 1.32 at the start of set 2. In the first game, Erjavec was broken to 15. Jeanjean’s price dropped to 1.18. It wasn’t looking good! I decided to leave the free bet. There was little point in hedging at this price.

Even though Erjavec’s stats were poor in the first set, she actually got worse in the second set! She did not win a game in the second set which meant she had lost the last 9 games. She won just 2 points on her own serve in the second set.

I don’t know what the issue was with Erjavec. She was either injured or just not interested (which doesn’t really make sense). Maybe she had one eye on a beach somewhere.

So, no profit but at least no loss!

Jeanjean won 6-3, 6-0.

 

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WTA Buenos Aires Challenger
Giovannini v Jeanjean 1.40
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Jeanjean 1-0 (June 2021, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %’s are better for Giovannini.

Giovannini gets a wild card entry. She lost in the 1st round last year. Most of her matches are in ITF’s. ITF final in Sep. 2 ITF titles in Aug. ITF title in May. ITF title in Jan.

Jeanjean reached the q final last season. CH final last week. CH semi in May. Quarter final in Bogota. CH semi in Dec.

12 month CH stats are much stronger for Jeanjean.
Back Jeanjean around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

Match prediction: Jeanjean in 2 sets.

Update: Jeanjean started the match at 1.36. There were no breaks in the first 6 games. At 3-3, her price had risen to 1.53.

In the next game, Giovannini faced a break point at 30-40 and was broken. Jeanjean’s price only dropped to 1.31 after the break. Just 5 ticks lower than her start price. For that reason (and also the fact that there was only 28K matched on the market at this point, I did not enter.

Jeanjean held to 15 in the next game and her price hit 1.20. I decided to wait for set 2. In the next game, Jeanjean broke to 0 to take the set.
Stats in the first set were poor on serve for Giovannini. She had a high first serve percentage of 75% but was winning just 48% of her first serve points.
As I had favoured Jeanjean to win in 2 sets, I was in no rush to lay her.

Jeanjean started the 2nd set with an easy hold to 15. Giovannini was then broken to 15. She had now been broken in her last 3 service games.
Jeanjean was now a set and a break up. I need a good reason not to lay the leading player in this situation. In this case, I had favoured Jeanjean to win in straight sets. Giovannini was not serving well. I did not enter. Jeanjean could have been laid at 1.06.

The next 3 games were holds of serve. Giovannini served at 1-4 and was broken to 30. She had been broken 4 times in her last 5 service games.

Jeanjean could now be laid at 1.01. She had not faced a break point in the match. I had predicted a straight sets win for her before the match. I thought about laying. It seemed pointless. I have always noticed that WTA players often struggle when serving at 5-1. I laid for £200 at 1.01. A massive liability of £2.

Jeanjean was broken to 30. Her price moved to 1.02. Giovannini would probably get broken in the next game. Giovannini held to 30. Jeanjean hit 1.03. In the next game, Jeanjean was again broken to 30. Her back price hit 1.12.

Jeanjean had reached the final the previous week. Maybe she was tired. Maybe she though that the job was done when she was a set and 5-1 up and had switched off mentally.

Giovannini was back on serve. Another pattern in tennis is that if a player has been behind for the whole set and gets back on serve (especially from being a double break behind), they so often get broken again. Giovannini held to 15! Jeanjean was at 1.17.

Jeanjean served at 5-5 and was broken for the 3rd time in a row. her price hit 1.47. I was wishing I had laid with a bigger stake, although to be fair, there wasn’t much more available at 1.01. I would normally hedge there but Jeanjean seemed to be falling apart. I was only risking £2. An easy hold for Giovannini gave her the set. Jeanjean hit 1.80.

At least a boring match had got interesting! The first 4 games of the 3rd set were holds. No break points. It looked like Jeanjean had sorted her serve out but Giovannini had only lost 2 points on her own serve. In the next game, Jeanjean was broken to 15. In WTA Challengers, the player breaking first in the 3rd set gets broken back 56% of the time. I hedged at 1.44 on Giannini’s ladder. That was 3.30 on Jeanjean’s ladder. A profit of £138 for a £2 liability.

The next game was a hold to 15 for Giovannini. Jeanjean served at 2-4. She saved 4 break points but was broken on the 5th. Giovannini served out the set and the match easily.

Giovannini won 3-6, 7-5, 6-2.