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ATP Metz
Royer v Norrie 1.62
Due to start at 5 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Indoor win %’s are better for Norrie.

Royer reached the 2nd rounds in Basel and Brussels in Oct. CH Semi in Feb.

Norrie reached the Final last season. 3rd round in Paris. 2nd rounds in Vienna and Dallas.

2025 indoor stats favour Norrie.
Back Norrie around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Norrie in 2 sets.

Update: Norrie broke Royer’s serve in the 4th game to lead 3-1. His first 2 holds were to 15. I decided to stay out of the market to see if Royer could put any pressure on the Norrie serve for the rest of the set. The remaining games were comfortable holds for both players.

As there had only been 1 break in the first set, I thought there was a little value in laying Norrie in the 2nd set. I laid him at 1.16.

There were no break points in the first 4 games. Royer faced a break point when he served at 2-2 but her recovered to hold. When he served at 3-3, he went 15-40 behind. He recovered to hold. I seemed more likely that Norrie was going to break first. I have a rule that if I have laid the set winner and the score reached 4-4, I exit. Norrie had an easy hold to 0 to take them to 4-4 and I exited at 1.14.

The 4-4 exit saves me more times than it means I miss out on a profit. This was one of the times that I missed out on a profit! The set went to a tie break that Royer won easily, 7-2.

I did not enter in the 3rd set. Norrie broke to lead 2-0 and that was the only break of the set.

Norrie won 6-3, 6-7, 6-3.

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
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ATP Paris Masters
Davidovich Fokina v Zverev 1.49
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Zverev 5-1. Most recent Apr 2025, clay, Zverev in 3rd set tie break. 3 sets win on hard in Sep 2023. Fokina won on hard in Aug 2023, 2 sets. 12 month indoor win %’s are even. Fokina leads in 2025.

Fokina lost in the qual rounds last year. 3 sets win over Royer in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Cazaux in the 2nd round.
Final in Basel 2025. Quarter final in Brussels. 2nd round in Dallas.

Zverev won the title last season. He needed 3 sets against Carabelli in the 2nd round.
Final in Vienna 2025, Semi finals at the ATP Finals.

12 month ATP stats are stronger for Zverev. 2025 stats are a little closer but still favour him.
Back Zverev around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Zverev in 3 sets.

Update: the first 2 games were easy holds. In the 3rd game, Fokina was broken. I laid Zverev at 1.19. In the next game, Zverev went break point down and I removed some of my liability at 1.31. Zverev saved 3 break points in the game and held.

The next game was an easy hold for Fokina. I gave him 1 more chance to break back. Zverev held to love. I exited at 1.17 for a tiny profit.

Fokina served at 2-4 and went 0-40 behind. He got back to deuce but Zverev had another break point which he converted. He served for the set at 5-2. He was taken to deuce but held.

Fokina served first in set 2. I let him have his service game before laying Zverev. Fokina was broken. I laid Zverev at 1.05. He was broken to 15 in the next game and I hedged at 1.18.

Zverev got a break to lead 4-3. The remaining 3 games were all easy holds. Small profit. We’d have needed 3 sets for anything decent unless I’d had more faith in Fokina to break back from being a set and a break behind and I had used bigger stakes for the lay.

Zverev won 6-2, 6-4.

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
I will email you my notes 7 days a week.

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