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This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
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Download link, Trading Tips file: 20th May

WTA Strasbourg
Mboko 1.63 v Fernandez
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Mboko 1-0 (Nov 2025, hard, 3 sets). Clay win %’s favour Mboko.

Mboko had a 2 sets win over Boisson in the 2nd round.
She reached the 3rd round of the French Open 2025. She had played just 1 clay match in 2026.

Fernandez lost in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win over Jeanjean in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Frech in the 2nd round.
Quarter finals in Madrid 2026, Quarter finals in Stuttgart 2026.

12 month stats favour Mboko overall. Stats for their last 10 favour Fernandez on serve.
Chance of 3 sets.
Fernandez hit 9 d faults in the previous round.
Back Mboko around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Mboko in 3 sets

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Fernandez served first and held to 0.
0-1

Mboko held to 15.
1-1

Fernandez went 15-40 behind. I could have laid Mboko at 1.48 but I wanted a better price. She was broken and I laid Mboko at 1.40.
2-1

Mboko held to 0.
3-1

Fernandez was broken again to 15. I added to my lay at 1.19.
4-1

Mboko held to 15. Fernandez held to 30.
5-1
5-2

Mboko faced a break point at 40-A. The price only moved at 1.22. I waited. Mboko saved the break point but faced another and was broken. I removed some liability at 1.27.
5-3

Fernandez had to save 2 break points but held serve. I hedged at 1.32 for a small profit.
5-4

Mboko served out the set to 15.
6-4

Stats for the set were stronger for Mboko although her first serve percentage was just 45%.

Fernandez served first in the second set and was broken after saving 1 break point. She was not looking good. I did not lay Mboko and waited to see if Fernandez could improve.
1-0

Mboko held to 15.
2-0

Fernandez was then broken again, this time to 0. Mboko was now priced at 1.03. Pre match, I had thought it could be tight. I laid.
3-0

Mboko was broken to 0. Her price moved to 1.06. I waited.
3-1

Fernandez had to saved 3 break points but she eventually held. I hedged at 1.09.
3-2

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
4-2
4-3
5-3
5-4

Mboko served out the set and the match to 30.
6-4

Mboko won 6-4, 6-4.

 

This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
Get the Trading Tips emailed to you 7 days a week.

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Trading Tips – Download link: May 19th

ATP Hamburg
Darderi 1.58 v Hanfmann
Due to start at 5 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Darderi 5-0. All their matches were on clay. Most recent May 2026, 2 sets. He won by walkover in Apr 2026. 2 sets win in march 2026. 2 sets win in Feb 2024. 2 sets win in 2023. Clay win %’s favour Darderi.

Darderi reached the Quarter final last year. 2 sets win over Burruchaga in the 1st round.
Semi finals in Rome 2026, Semi finals in Marrakech 2026, Title in Santiago 2026, Final in Buenos Aires 2026, Title in Umag 2025, Title in Bastad 2025.

Hanfmann needed 3 sets against a qualifier in the 1st round.
He reached the 2nd round in Rome 2026. 2nd round in Madrid 2026. Quarter final in Marrakech 2026. Final in Santiago 2026.

12 month stats and 2026 stats favour Hanfmann on serve.
Recent performances are better for Darderi.
Back Darderi around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Darderi in 2 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Darderi started the match at 1.51.
Hanfmann served first and held to 15.
0-1

Darderi was broken to 30. His price moved to 1.91. This was not quite the price I wanted (2.00 to 2.20) but in this situation, I back the favourite after the break. As the value is less than I would like, I reduce the stake. So, I backed Darderi at 1.91.
0-2

Hanfmann was broken to 15. I reduced my liability at 1.57, leaving the profit on Darderi.
1-2

The next 9 games were holds with no break points!
6-6

The tie break was very tight. Hanfmann had 3 set points but it was Darderi wo took the tie break 9-7.
7-6

Darderi was priced at 1.17 after the set.

Stats for the set were fairly even. The big difference was the first serve percentages. Darderi was 72% and Hanfmann got just 51% of his first serves in play.

Both players had ended the first set serving well. Darderi served first in the second set. I laid him at the start of the set at 1.17. He held to 15.
1-0

The next 6 games were holds with no break points.
1-1
2-1
2-2
3-2
3-3
4-3

Hanfmann went 15-40 behind. He saved the break point and held. The score was now 4-4. That is my exit score if I have laid the set 1 winner. I hedged at 1.16.
4-4

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
5-4
5-5
6-5

Hanfmann was broken to 15 to hand the set and the match to Darderi.
7-5

Darderi won 7-6, 7-5.