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WTA Merida
Sonmez v Bucsa 1.89
Due to start at 9:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Sonmez.

Sonmez reached the Quarter final last year. Easy win over Brace in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Li in the 2nd round.
3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026, 3rd Round in Beijing 2025.

Bucsa had a 2 sets win over Vekic in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Stakusic in the 2nd round.
She reached the Final in Hong Kong 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025.

12 month stats favour Bucsa on serve. Stats for 2026 are stronger for Sonmez.
Lay Bucsa around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Sonmez in 3 sets.

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Update: Sonmez served first and was broken to 30. I backed Sonmez at 2.20. I kept stake small as it was not the entry price I wanted. Bucsa was at 1.82 and my initial target entry was to lay her at 1.55. I often back my favoured player straight after they get broken but if the price isn’t the value I wanted, I will reduce stake. They will often break straight back.

The next 2 games were easy holds of serve. Bucsa served at 2-1. She went 15-40 behind. I removed half my liability at 1.95. Bucsa saved 4 break points in that game and held serve. As she had just missed 4 break points, there was an increased chance that Sonmez would struggle in her next service game so I hedged for the loss at 2.80.

Sonmez was broken to 0 in the next game. Bucsa was now a double break up and I laid her at 1.33. In the next game, Bucsa struggled. She saved 3 break points. I was getting a little irritated! She faced another break point and this time she was broken. I hedged for the reduced red at 1.47. Sonmez had been broken in 2 of her 3 service games. I did not trust her to hold.

Sonmez served at 2-4. She saved 3 break points but was broken. I laid Bucsa again at 1.32. She served for the set at 5-2 and was also broken again! I hedged for a smaller red at 1.43. The market clearly didn’t fancy Sonmez to hold serve in the next game. She was broken to 0 and Bucsa took the set.

Sonmez’ stats in the first set were awful on serve. Just 12 points won and broken 4 times. Bucsa’s were better, which wasn’t difficult, but not amazing. 11 break points faced.

Bucsa served first in the second set. I was not in a rush to back Sonmez until I saw how she started the set. The first 5 games were holds of serve with no break points.

Sonmez served at 2-3. She was broken to 0. Bucsa had been immediately broken back the last 2 times she had been a break ahead. I laid Bucsa at 1.06.

In the next game, Bucsa faced a break point but recovered to hold. Sonmez then held to 30 to get to 3-5. Bucsa would serve for the set. She was broken to 0. I hedged at 1.14. In the next game, Sonmez served to 3-5. She was broken to 0.

The match had been a bit of a mess and my favoured played had lost in straight sets. I was happy (ish) with a small loss.

Bucsa won 6-3, 6-4.

 

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ATP Dubai
Rublev 1.32 v Rinderknech
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Rublev 3-0. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, 5 sets. 2 sets win on hard in Aug 2024. 4 sets win on hard in 2023. Hard win %’s favour Rublev.

Rublev lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Royer in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Humbert in the 2nd round.
3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Hong Kong 2026, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, Quarter finals in Cincinnati 2025, Quarter finals in Toronto 2025, Semi finals in Los Cabos 2025.

Rinderknech had a 3 sets win over Marozsan in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Draper in the 2nd round.
He reached the Final in Shanghai 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, 3rd Round in Cincinnati 2025.

Serve stats in the last year and for their last 10 on hard are a little better for Rinderknech. Return stats strongly favour Rublev. Stats for the tournament are stronger for Rublev.
Chance of 3 sets.
Back Rublev around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.

Match prediction: Rublev in 3 sets.

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Update: Rublev’s start price was 1.38. Rinderknech served first. the first 4 games were all holds of serve with no break points.

Rinderknech served at 2-2. He was broken to 15. I placed a small lay on Rublev at 1.18. In the next game, Rublev held to 15.

In the next game, Rinderknech faced a break point and was broken. I exited at 1.14. Rublev now led 5-2. He faced a break point when serving for the set but recovered to hold.

Stats for the first set were poor for Rinderknech on second serve. He won 1 of 9 points. Rublev’s first serve percentage was 70%. He won 75% of points on his first serve and 57% on second serve.

I was not keen to lay Rublev unless Rinderknech could put some pressure on his opponent’s serve.

Rinderknech served first in the second set. He faced a break point but recovered to hold. Rublev then held to 15. In the next game, Rublev broke Rinderknech’s serve to lead 2-1. Pre match, I had expected Rinderknech to be competitive but so far, that assessment was incorrect.

In the next game, Rublev held to 0. He then broke Rinderknech to 15 and held serve to 15 to take a 5-1 lead. I had already moved to another match.

Rinderknech did get one of the breaks back, breaking Rublev when he served for the match. Rublev again served for the match at 5-4 and was successful.

Tiny loss for me.

Rublev won 6-2, 6-4.