Trading Tips – ATP Shanghai, Fery v Cilic
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ATP Shanghai
Fery 1.60 v Cilic
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10
1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Fery.
Fery reached the Final in Winston-Salem 2026.
Cilic reached the 2nd round last season.
He reached the 3rd Round in Miami 2026, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026.
12 month stats favour Cilic on serve and Fery on return.
Recent performances are better for Cilic.
Lay Fery around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.80. Chance of 3 sets.
Match prediction: Cilic in 3 sets.
Update: Cilic served first. The first 4 games were holds.
0-1
1-1
1-2
2-2
At 15-15, Fery’s price dropped to 1.45/1.46 and i placed a lay on him at 1.46. Cilic recovered to hold.
2-3
Fery was broken to 15. I removed liability, leaving the green on Cilic.
2-4
Cilic went 0-40 behind. He saved the break points but faced another and was broken.
3-4
Fery held to 0.
4-4
Cilic held to 0.
4-5
Fery faced a set point at 30-40. As the set had been very close, I hedged evenly at 1.99 on Cilic’s ladder. Fery saved the break point and went on to hold serve.
5-5
The next 2 games were holds.
5-6
6-6
The tie break was one sided and Fery won in 7-2.
7-6
Stats for the set favour Fery overall.
After the set, Fery was priced at 1.18/1.19.
Often, a tie break in the first set favours the pre match favourite in set two, regardless of who won the set. As it was a very tight set and Cilic had not converted his set point, I waited before laying Fery.
Fery served first and held to 30.
1-0
Cilic was broken to 30. I laid Fery at 1.05.
2-0
Fery held to 15.
3-0
Cilic was broken to 30. I had a decent green on Fery and a much larger green on Cilic. There was no point doing anything else with the trade unless Cilic made a comeback.
4-0
He did not make a comeback.
Fery won 7-6, 6-1.
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