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WTA Linz
Andreeva 1.27 v Potapova
Due to start at 1 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Andreeva 2-1. Most recent Aug 2025, hard, Andreeva in 2. She won on grass in 2023, 2 sets. Potapova won on hard in 2022, 3 sets. Clay win %’s are even.

Andreeva had a 2 sets win over Stephens in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Cirstea in the q final. Easy win in the semi final as strong favourite.
She reached the Quarter finals at the French Open 2025, Quarter finals in Rome 2025, Quarter finals in Madrid 2025.

Potapova reached the Quarter final last year (indoors). 2 sets win over Zhang in the 1st round. Very easy win over Korpatsch in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Tagger in the q final. Easy win over Vekic in the semi final.
4th Round in Madrid 2025.

12 month clay stats favour Andreeva overall. Stats for their last 10 also favour her.
Stats for the tournament favour Potapova overall.
Lay Andreeva around 1.20 and remove liability at 1.40. Back Andreeva around 1.80 or if she loses set 1.

Match prediction: Andreeva in 2 sets.

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Update: Andreeva served first and was broken. Her price moved to 1.41. I didn’t want to back her at that price so I waited.

The next 2 games were holds. Potapova served at 2-1. She faced a break point but recovered to hold. In the following game, Andreeva was broken to 15. I placed a part stake back on Andreeva at 2.06.

Potapova held to lead 5-1. Andreeva was then broken for a third time to lose the set.

A disappointing set from Andreeva. Her first serve percentage was good at 69%. First serve points won were not terrible at 61% but she won 1 of her 8 second serve points.

I try to stay with my pre match assessment but she wasn’t making it easy!

Potapova served first in the second set. I added to my position by laying her at 1.59. She held to 0. Andreeva was taken to deuce in the next game but managed to hold serve.

In the next game, Potapova was broken to 0. I removed liability by laying Andreeva at 1.97, leaving the profit on Andreeva.

in the next game, Andreeva was broken to 15! Well, at least I was risk free! Potapova was broken in the next game after saving a break point. The remaining games in the set were all very easy holds.

In the third set, the first 4 games were holds. Potapova did face a single break point in the first game. Potapova served at 2-2 and was broken after saving 2 break point. I hedged at 1.22.

I did consider laying Andreeva after that break as there was a 53% chance that there would be a break back. I did not lay. Potapova broke back in the next game!

Andreeva took the next 3 games with 2 breaks and a hold of serve.

Andreeva won 1-6, 6-4, 6-3.

 

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WTA Madrid Challenger
Selekhmeteva 1.80 v Kudermetova
Due to start at 11:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

Kudermetova 1-0 (Oct 2019, indoors, 2 sets). Clay win %’s favour Selekhmeteva.

Selekhmeteva needed a 3rd set tie break as 1.12 favourite. 2 sets win in the 2nd round.
CH q final in Oct. CH title in Sep. CH final and semi final in July.

Kudermetova had a 2 sets win over Sherif in the 1st round as underdog. Easy win over Ponchet as favourite in the 2nd round.

12 month CH stats favour Kudermetova on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour her overall.
Lay Selekhmeteva around 1.50 and remove liability at 1.90. Good chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Kudermetova in 3 sets.

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Update: Selekhmeteva started at 1.66. Kudermetova served first. She went 15-40 behind. The price was not very attractive to lay at 1.54 (given the lower start price) so I waited for the break. She was broken and I laid Selekhmeteva at 1.47.

In the next game, Selekhmeteva saved 3 break points but was eventually broken back. I removed liability at 1.78, leaving the green on Kudermetova. The next 5 games were holds. Selekhmeteva did face a break point when she served at 2-3 but she recovered to hold. I thought about hedging at that break point but decided against it.

Selekhmeteva served at 3-4 and was broken. I hedged at 1.46 on Kudermetova’s ladder (3.15 on Selekhmeteva’s ladder). Kudermetova served for the set. She went 15-40 behind but recovered to hold.

Stats for the set had Selekhmeteva with the better first serve percentage at 67% but she had a low(ish) first serve points won % at 58%. Kudermetova had a low first serve percentage of 53%. She only lost 3 points on her first serve. Both players were below the tour average on second serves points won.

Selekhmeteva served first in the second set. I let her have her service game before laying Kudermetova. She was broken to 30. I laid Kudermetova at 1.21.

In the next game, Kudermetova saved 2 break points but was eventually broken. I backed her at 1.35 with the same stake that I had used for the lay. This left me with green on both players but a bigger green on Kudermetova.

In the next game, Selekhmeteva was broken again. I laid Kudermetova at 1.18. She was then broken to 30 in the next game and I backed her at 1.29 using the same stake. Selekhmeteva then held after being taken to deuce. Kudermetova served at 2-3 and was broken to 30.

I backed Kudermetova at 1.76. Selekhmeteva was broken in the next game and I hedged at 1.48.

The next 4 games were holds of serve. Kudermetova served at 5-6. She faced and saved 2 break points / set points but managed to hold.

They went into a tie break. Kudermetova won the tie break 7-3.

Kudermetova won 6-3, 7-6.