Trading Tip – WTA Toronto, Sramkova v Blinkova

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Download link: Trading Tips 1st August

WTA Toronto
Sramkova 1.85 v Blinkova
Due to start at 8:30 pm

Confidence rating 7/10

Blinkova 1-0 (Jan 2022, indoors, 2 sets). Hard win %’s favour Sramkova.

Sramkova lost in the 2nd round last year. This year she has come through the qual round.
Quarter finals in Osaka 2025, Quarter finals in Monterrey 2025.

Blinkova reached the 2nd round last season.
2nd round in Miami 2026. 2nd round in Indian Wells 2026. Title in Jiujiang 2025.

12 month stats and 2026 stats favour Sramkova overall.
Lay Blinkova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match Prediction: Sramkova in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: I was stuck in another match so could not trade this one. I will apply my trading rules to this match to show what I would have done.

Sramkova served first. She had to save a break point but recovered to hold.
1-0

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.
1-1
2-1

Blinkova went 15-40 behind. I would have laid Sramkova at break point. Blinkova saved 2 break points but faced another and was broken.
3-1

Sramkova was broken to 0. I would have removed liability, leaving the profit on Sramkova.
3-2

Blinkova was broken again.
4-2

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
5-2
5-3
6-3

Stats for the set weren’t great for Sramkova. First serve percentage was 54%. Points won on first serve was 47%. What saved her was the fact that her second serve points won percentage was 69%. Blinkova had a similar first serve percentage of 55%. Unfortunately for her, she was winning just 31% of points on her second serve.

Set 1 stats

Blinkova served first in the second set. I would still have had the free bet on Sramkova. I would have waited for Sramkova to go a set and a break up so I could lay her at a much better price.

Blinkova saved a break point but held.
0-1

Sramkova held to 30.
1-1

Blinkova was broken to 15. I’d have laid Sramkova. The position would be risk free because of the free bet.
2-1

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.
3-1
3-2

Sramkova was broken to 15. I’d have backed Sramkova with the same stake used for the lay. This would give me a bigger free bet on Sramkova.
3-3

Blinkova was broken to 30.
4-3

Sramkova held to love. Blinkova was broken after saving a break point.
5-3
6-3

Sramkova won 6-3, 6-3.

Trading Tip - WTA Toronto, Sramkova v Blinkova 1

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Trading Tip – WTA Memphis, Sonmez v Kalieva

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Download link: Trading Tips 28th July

WTA Memphis
Sonmez 1.50 v Kalieva
Due to start at 8 pm

Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Kalieva.

Sonmez needed 3 sets in the 1st round as 1.16 favourite.
She reached the Quarter finals in Merida 2026, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026, 3rd Round in Beijing 2025.

Kalieva had a 2 sets win in the 1st round as favourite.
She reached the 2nd round in Maimi 2026 as qualifier. CH q final in Oct.

12 month WTA stats favour Kalieva on serve. 2026 stats also favour Kalieva overall.
Sonmez has better WTA results in 2026.
Chance of 3 sets.
Back Sonmez around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Sonmez in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Sonmez served first. She was broken to 15. Her price only moved to 1.85. Often, in this situation, I would back her but due to the poor value, I would use a reduced stake. This time, I decided to wait to give Kalieva the chance to take the first point of her service game.
0-1

Kalieva did take the first point and I backed Sonmez at 2.02. Kalieva was taken to deuce twice and was broken. I removed liability at 1.57, leaving the green on Sonmez.
1-1

Sonmez saved 2 break points but recovered to hold.
2-1

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
2-2
3-2
3-3
4-3

Kalieva saved 3 break points but was eventually broken.
5-3

Sonmez had to save 2 break points when serving for the set but did eventually hold.
6-3

Stats for the set were better for Sonmez overall. She had a better first serve percentage and a better first serve points won percentage.

After the set, Sonmez was priced at 1.20/1.21.

Set 1 stats

Kalieva served first in the second set. When the first set loser serves first in the second set, I usually wait for them to have their service game before laying the set winner.

Kalieva was broken to 15. I laid Sonmez at 1.09. The lay was risk free due to the free bet on Sonmez from the first set.
1-0

Sonmez was broken after being taken to deuce twice. I backed Sonmez at 1.18 using the same stake used to lay her. This increased the free bet on Sonmez.
1-1

The next 2 games were holds.
1-2
2-2

Kalieva was broken after being taken to deuce. I laid Sonmez again at 1.10.
3-2

Sonmez was broken to 30. I hedged evenly at 1.20. This set could go either way.
3-3

Easy hold for Kalieva.
3-4

Sonmez saved 2 break points and held serve.
4-4

The next 3 games were holds. Sonmez again had to save 2 break points in her game.
4-5
5-5
5-6

Sonmez saved a break point. She faced another and this time, she was broken to give the set to Kalieva.
5-7

Stats for the set were really poor for Sonmez on first serve points won. She won 38% of points on that first serve.

Set 2 stats

It was late so I didn’t trade the third set.

Looking at the point by point data, it was a messy set!
Kalieva served first. She saved 3 break point before holding.
0-1

Sonmez saved a break point and held.
1-1

Kalieva was broken.
2-1

Sonmez held after being taken to deuce.
3-1

Kalieva was broken again.
4-1

Sonmez was broken. Then Kalieva held. Sonmez was broken again!
4-2
4-3
4-4

Kalieva was broken again.
5-4

Sonmez served for the match but was broken to 0.
5-5

Kalieva held to 30.
5-6

Sonmez was broken to 15 to give the set and the match to Kalieva.
5-7

Kalieva won 3-6, 7-5, 7-5.

Trading Tip - WTA Memphis, Sonmez v Kalieva 2

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