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Download link: Trading Tips 28th July

WTA Memphis
Sonmez 1.50 v Kalieva
Due to start at 8 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Kalieva.

Sonmez needed 3 sets in the 1st round as 1.16 favourite.
She reached the Quarter finals in Merida 2026, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026, 3rd Round in Beijing 2025.

Kalieva had a 2 sets win in the 1st round as favourite.
She reached the 2nd round in Maimi 2026 as qualifier. CH q final in Oct.

12 month WTA stats favour Kalieva on serve. 2026 stats also favour Kalieva overall.
Sonmez has better WTA results in 2026.
Chance of 3 sets.
Back Sonmez around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Sonmez in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Sonmez served first. She was broken to 15. Her price only moved to 1.85. Often, in this situation, I would back her but due to the poor value, I would use a reduced stake. This time, I decided to wait to give Kalieva the chance to take the first point of her service game.
0-1

Kalieva did take the first point and I backed Sonmez at 2.02. Kalieva was taken to deuce twice and was broken. I removed liability at 1.57, leaving the green on Sonmez.
1-1

Sonmez saved 2 break points but recovered to hold.
2-1

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
2-2
3-2
3-3
4-3

Kalieva saved 3 break points but was eventually broken.
5-3

Sonmez had to save 2 break points when serving for the set but did eventually hold.
6-3

Stats for the set were better for Sonmez overall. She had a better first serve percentage and a better first serve points won percentage.

After the set, Sonmez was priced at 1.20/1.21.

Kalieva served first in the second set. When the first set loser serves first in the second set, I usually wait for them to have their service game before laying the set winner.

Kalieva was broken to 15. I laid Sonmez at 1.09. The lay was risk free due to the free bet on Sonmez from the first set.
1-0

Sonmez was broken after being taken to deuce twice. I backed Sonmez at 1.18 using the same stake used to lay her. This increased the free bet on Sonmez.
1-1

The next 2 games were holds.
1-2
2-2

Kalieva was broken after being taken to deuce. I laid Sonmez again at 1.10.
3-2

Sonmez was broken to 30. I hedged evenly at 1.20. This set could go either way.
3-3

Easy hold for Kalieva.
3-4

Sonmez saved 2 break points and held serve.
4-4

The next 3 games were holds. Sonmez again had to save 2 break points in her game.
4-5
5-5
5-6

Sonmez saved a break point. She faced another and this time, she was broken to give the set to Kalieva.
5-7

Stats for the set were really poor for Sonmez on first serve points won. She won 38% of points on that first serve.

It was late so I didn’t trade the third set.

Looking at the point by point data, it was a messy set!
Kalieva served first. She saved 3 break point before holding.
0-1

Sonmez saved a break point and held.
1-1

Kalieva was broken.
2-1

Sonmez held after being taken to deuce.
3-1

Kalieva was broken again.
4-1

Sonmez was broken. Then Kalieva held. Sonmez was broken again!
4-2
4-3
4-4

Kalieva was broken again.
5-4

Sonmez served for the match but was broken to 0.
5-5

Kalieva held to 30.
5-6

Sonmez was broken to 15 to give the set and the match to Kalieva.
5-7

Kalieva won 3-6, 7-5, 7-5.