ATP Monte Carlo Tabilo v Dimitrov 1.68 Due to start at 3 pm
Dimitrov 2-0. Most recent Sep 2024, indoors, 2 tie breaks. He won on hard in March 2024, 3 sets. Clay win %’s are better for Dimitrov.
Tabilo reached the 2nd round last season. 3 sets win over Wawrinka in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Djokovic as huge underdog in the 2nd round. Semis in Rome.
Dimitrov reached the 3rd round last season. 2 sets win over Jarry in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Vacherot in the 2nd round. Q finals of the French Open. 4th round in Rome.
12 month ATP stats are stronger for Dimitrov on serve and return.
Back Dimitrov around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65.
Keep stakes low while learning the tennis markets.
The prices I give are where I suggest we enter the market. I am looking for the price to hit during set 1, and hopefully early in the set to give us time to get our exit price.
I will often say to lay Player A “around 1.25”. If the price gets close to that price we can enter. In this example we might enter at 1.27.
We are then looking for our exit price. I will post to remove liab or liability/risk/red at a particular price. I will often remove at least some of the liability if our player gets a break point and then remove any remaining liability when the break is complete. It can be frustrating if our player gets break points but doesn’t break. By removing some liability, we improve our break even price so if they don’t get the break of serve, we are still in profit.
If the advice is to lay the set 1 winner: If I am expecting the match to go to 3 sets, I want to lay whoever takes the first set. However, if the player who lost the set is serving first in set 2, it can be a good idea to wait for them to have their service game before laying. Even if they get broken, we can lay after that first service game. Laying a player when they are a set and a break ahead is a solid entry as the leading player will often relax and allow the other player back into the set.
As a general guide, until you are experienced enough to make your own choices and trading decisions, I recommend exiting the trade if your player gets broken AFTER you backed them. There will, of course be situations when they do recover but it’s best to protect your confidence as much as you should protect your bank.
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