These predictions are aimed at traders rather than punters. When assessing a match, I initially look for 2 things. Who do I think will win and how competitive will the other player be? Use them for straight bets if you wish but please bear in mind that is not what they are intended for.
Lyon Challenger Paris v Broady 1.70 Due to start at 1 pm Confidence rating 7/10
1st meeting. Indoor win %’s are better for Broady.
Paris lost in the 1st round last season. 2 sets win over Hassan in the 1st round. 2 tie breaks win over Djere in the 2nd round. 2 sets win as underdog over Kukushkin in the q final. ITF final in Oct. CH q final in Feb. ITF title and final in Jan. ITF title in Nov.
Broady has come through the qual rounds. 2 sets win over Passaro as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win as huge underdog against Hanfmann. 3 sets win over Dodig in the q final. Most of his indoor matches in the last 12 months were in ITF’s. ITF title and final in Oct. ITF semi in Feb.
12 month CH stats are stronger for Broady. Paris’ best results were in ITF’s but he has raised his level this week. Being at home helps him. Good chance of 3 sets. Back Broady around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.
Match prediction: Broady in 3 sets.
Update: In the 3rd game, Broady went 15-40 behind. I backed him at 2.22. He recovered to hold and I removed liability at 1.69, leaving the green on Broady.
Paris then had an easy hold. In Broady’s next service game, he again went 15-40 behind. He had not made a good start but I placed a small back on him at 2.30. He saved one of the break points but Paris took the second one. Broady’s price went out to 2.60. I held my position.
Paris served at 3-2. He went 30-40 behind. I removed my liability at 2.12. This left me a free bet on Broady. Paris saved the break point and he had to save another before he held to lead 4-2. Broady had an easy hold to get to 4-3.
Paris served at 4-3. He went 15-40 behind. He was broken and I hedged evenly at 1.78. In the next 4 games, only 1 point was won against serve. They went into a tie break. Broady won the tie break 7-5.
I laid Broady at the start of set 2. I laid at 1.29. There were no break points in the next 8 games. I have a rule when I lay the set 1 winner that if the score gets to 4-4, I exit. I exited, leaving me the profit from the first set.
Paris was broken in the next game and Broady easily served out the set.
Broady won 7-6, 6-4.
These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match. I will email you my notes 7 days a week.
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