Daily match picks

Bencic (1.43) v Krueger
Starts at 1 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %’s are better for Bencic.
Bencic had a 3 sets win over Sramkova in the 1st round. She did not lose a game to Kudermetova in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Vondrousova in the q final. She beat Rybakina in 3 sets in the semi final. She reached the 4th round of the Aus Open.
Krueger reached the 2nd round as qualifier last season. 3 sets win over Kessler as underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Kasatkina as underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Fernandez as underdog in the q final. 2 sets win over Noskova in the semi final. Q finals in Adelaide. Q finals in Brisbane. 3rd round in Beijing. 3rd round of the US Open. 3rd round in Toronto as qualifier.
12 month WTA stats are stronger for Bencic. ROI’s in the last 12 months are even. Stats for the tournament are better for Bencic.
I have gone against Krueger in every round this week and she continues to prove me wrong.
Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Bencic around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.55. Back Bencic around 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

 

Sabalenka in 3:
We have some value on Keys who has 2 top 10 wins in the tournament. Sabalenka has not looked comfortable on serve in a few sets and serve stats for the tournament favour Keys. A Keys win would not be a huge surprise but a tight Sabalenka victory is the most probable outcome.