Daily match picks

Mertens 1.44 v Begu 3.2
Second round
Due to start at 01:30

Mertens 2-0. Most recent meeting was April 2017, clay, 2 sets. She won indoors in 2017, 3 sets.

Long term hard win percentages are even. Mertens has the lead in the last 12 months.

Mertens reached the 4th round at the Australian Open and Us Open last year. She reached the semis in Dubai and 4th round in Miami. She beat Zvonareva in straight sets in the last round. She served fairly well and was broken twice from 4 bp’s.

Begu reached the q finals in Melbourne 2 weeks ago. She lost in the 1st round last year and also the 1st round at the US Open. She beat Dodin in 3 sets in the last round. It was a tough match and she faced 15 bp’s. She was broken 7 times.

Chance of 3 sets. Back Mertens above 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50. Back her if she loses set 1.

Update: Mertens saved a bp in the first game. She got the only break of the set to lead 3-1. We didn’t get the entry price. The second set was also one sided and she broke Begu twice.

Mertens won 6-3, 6-2. No trade.

 

First round
Kenin 2.84 v Keys 1.53

Due to start at 6 am

Keys 3-1. Most recent June 2020, clay, Keys in 3. She won both their hard court matches.

Long term hard win %’s are a little better for Kenin. They were fairly even on hard courts in the last 12 months. Keys has made a much better start to the new season.

Keys won the title last week and has started 2022 strongly. She reached the 2nd round in Melbourne 2 weeks ago, losing to Kasatkina in 3 sets. She has a decent record at the Australian Open.

Kenin reached the q finals in Adelaide 2 weeks ago but was poor last week. She won this title in 2020 and her form suffered after that until the US Open where she reached the 4th round. She had a poor season in 2021.

Back Keys around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.40.

Update: No breaks in the first set. They had 1 bp each. Keys took the set in a tie break. In set 2 there were no breaks in the first 8 games. Keys broke for a 5-4 lead. She was then broken when serving for the match. She broke Kenin again and this time, served out the set.

Keys won 7-6, 7-5. No trade