Quarter Final
Shapovalov 3.55 v Nadal 1.38
Due to start at 3 am

H2H 3-3. Most recent Dec 2021, hard, Shapovalov in 3. He has won both their hard court matches with the other being in 2017.

Overall win percentages and win percentages on hard favour Nadal. He has lost just 1 set so far which was against Khachanov in the 3rd round.

Shapovalov has had just 1 straight sets win so far. That was, surprisingly, against Zverev in the 4th round.

Stats for the tournament all favour Nadal. Stats for their last 10 on hard favour Nadal although everything except service holds are quite even. Shap has held 86% of his service games so has a chance to keep some of the sets close. He is playing well enough to take at least 1 set.

Back Nadal around 2.00 to 2.10. Lay the set 1 winner.

 

Fourth round
Pegula 3.15 v Sakkari 1.44
Due to start at 2 am

Sakkari 2-0. Most recent March 2021, hard, 3rd set tie break. The other match was on grass.

Overall win percentages are quite even. They both have strong win percentages on hard courts. Pegula has the lead.

Sakkari has not lost a set so far. Her 1st tournament of the year was in Adelaide. Her form wasn’t great but she has improved this week. She went behind against Kudermetova in the last round but recovered the break. Kudermetova had an MTO shortly after that. She finished the match but wasn’t competitive in the second set.

Pegula lost the 1st set in the first round against Kalinina. She has had some tight sets since. Her opening set with Parrizas Diaz in the last round was messy with both players struggling on serve.

Stats for the tournament favour Sakkari. Stats in their last 10 on hard favour Sakkari for everything except service holds.

Back Sakkari above 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50. Back her if she loses set 1.