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WTA Abu Dhabi
Kessler 1.50 v Pavlyuchenkova
Due to start at 10:30 am
Confidence rating 75./10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Kessler.

Kessler lost in the 1st round as qualifier last year. Quarter finals in Ningbo 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, 3rd Round in Miami 2025, Final in Austin 2025, 3rd Round in Dubai 2025.

Pavlyuchenkova reached the 2nd round last season. Quarter finals at the Australian Open 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 are stronger for Kessler.
Back Kessler around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Kessler in 2 sets.

Update: Kessler’s start price was 1.45

Pavlyuchenkova served first. She was broken to 30. I was expecting Kessler to be too strong but anyone can have a poor first service game. I tried a small lay of Kessler at 1.28. She was broken to 0! I backed Kessler with the same stake at 1.51 to leave the profit on Kessler.

In the next game, Pavlyuchenkova was broken again to 30. There were no more breaks in the set until Pavlyuchenkova served at 3-5. She was broken again to give Kessler the set.
Pavlyuchenkova’s first serve % and points won on 1st serve % were fine. She won only 2 of 11 on her second serve (18%).

I had seen nothing to suggest that laying Kessler in set 2 was a good idea.

Kessler served first in set 2 and held. She broke Pavlyuchenkova in the next game. I still had my free bet on Kessler so let it run.

In the next game, Kessler did come under some pressure and saved 6 break points before eventually holding to lead 3-0. There were no more breaks in the set although Pavlyuchenkova did face 4 more break points.

Kessler won 6-3, 6-3.