Daily match picks

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WTA Dubai
Cirstea 1.45 v Eala
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Cirstea 1-0 (Apr 2024, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %’s are better for Cirstea.

Cirstea reached the Quarter final last year. 2 sets win over Sasnovich in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Noskova in the 2nd round.
3rd Round in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Hong Kong 2025, Semi finals in Osaka 2025, Title in Cleveland 2025, 4th Round in Cincinnati 2025, Quarter finals in Austin 2025, Quarter finals in Dubai 2025.

Eala came through the 1st round when Baptiste retired in set 2. 2 sets win over Paolini as underdog in the 2nd round.
She reached the Quarter finals in Abu Dhabi 2026, Semi finals in Auckland 2026, Quarter finals in Sao Paulo 2025, Semi finals in Miami 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Cirstea on serve.
Back Cirstea around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Cirstea in 2 sets.

Update: Cirstea served first and held to 30. Eala also held to 30 in her first service game.

In the next game, Cirstea saved 2 break points but faced a third and was broken. Her price only went up to 1.67. That was around 15 ticks lower than it should have been. I was favouring Cirstea to win so I did back her after the break but kept the stake small.

In the next game, Eala was broken. I removed the liability at 1.43, leaving the green on Cirstea.

The next 6 games were all holds of serve. There was only 1 break point in those games which was against Cirstea. In the next game, Cirstea was broken to 30. Eala now led 6-5 and would serve for the set. As she had not faced a break point in her last 3 games, I waited for set 2.

Eala successfully served out the set. Stats for the set were better for Eala overall. Cirstea had a low first serve % at 52%. Points won on first serve were fairly even. 73% for Cirstea and 71% for Eala.

Eala’s price after the set was 1.84 (2.16 on Cirstea’s ladder).

Cirstea served first in set 2. I already had the small free bet on her from the first set. I waited for her to have her service game. She was broken to 30. I laid Eala at 1.45.

In the next game, Eala held to 15. In the next game, Cirstea went 15-40 behind. I hedged for the loss at 1.15.

Eala then held to 0 for a 4-0 lead. Cirstea held to 15. Eala served at 4-1. It was a long game in which she had to save 2 break points. She recovered to hold. Her price at 5-1 was 1.02.

Cirstea held serve to 30. Eala could be laid at 1.04. She had faced 2 break points in her last service game so I thought there was a chance that she would have a “wobble” when serving for the match. I laid at 1.04 for £500.

Eala was broken to 30 in the next game. Her price went to 1.11. I gave Cirstea the chance to hold. She did hold to 30. I hedged at 1.16.

That removed my most of my red.

Eala easily served out the match to 0.

Eala won 7-5, 6-4.

 

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ATP Rio de Janeiro
JM Cerundolo v Darderi 1.39
Due to start at 9 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Darderi 3-2. Most recent Feb 2024, clay, Darderi in 3. All their matches were on clay. Cerundolo won in Feb 2024, 2 sets. Darderi won twice in Oct 2023, 2 sets in each. 2 sets win for Cerundolo in 2022. Clay win %’s favour Darderi.

Cerundolo lost in the 1st round as qualifier.
Final in Gstaad 2025, 3rd Round in Madrid 2025.

Darderi reached the 2nd round last season.
Title in Umag 2025, Title in Bastad 2025, Quarter finals in Hamburg 2025, Quarter finals in Munich 2025, Title in Marrakech 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Darderi on serve.
Back Darderi around 1.85 to 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50.

Match prediction: Darderi in 2 sets.

Update: I was not able to trade this match. I have rules that I follow in certain match/trade situations and will apply them to this match.

Darderi served first and was broken to 30. I’d have backed Darderi after the break. Cerundolo then had a hold to 30. In the next game, Darderi went 15-40 behind. I would have exited. The biggest reason for favouring Darderi in this match was his better serve stats!. He was broken to 15.

The next game was another hold to 15 for Cerundolo. He led 4-0. I would have been wondering if Darderi had an issue. I can’t find any mention of him calling an MTO (medical time out). I would have stayed out and watched for signs of improvement from him for the rest of the set.

In the next game, Darderi went 15-40 behind. He saved 4 break points in the game but eventually held serve. Cerundolo served at 4-1. He faced break points for the first time. He saved 2 and recovered to hold. I would have been encouraged by the fact that Darderi had put him under pressure. Darderi was broken again to 0 in the next game to hand the set to Cerundolo!

As there were slight signs of improvement, at least on the return side of things, and I had favoured Darderi pre match, I would have laid Cerundolo at the start of set 2.

Cerundolo served first and held to 30. Darderi then held to 30. In the next game, Cerundolo was broken to 30. I may have taken the reduced red at that point or may have stayed to give him chance to hold, which he did easily. I would then have exited.

Either way, I probably would not have continued with the match and would have taken the reduced red position.

There were no break points in the next 5 games. Cerundolo served at 3-5 and was broken to give the set to Darderi.

I don’t often bother with third sets in ATP matches. In this deciding set, there was just 1 break of serve which went to Cerundolo in the third game. Both players faced 2 break points in the remaining games.

Cerundolo won 6-1, 3-6, 6-4.