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ATP Cincinnati
Nakashima 1.93 v Tiafoe
Due to start at 11 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Tiafoe 7-1. Most recent Feb 2026, hard, Tiafoe in 3. He won on clay in Apr 2025, 2 sets. Nakashima won on hard in Sep 2024, 2 sets. 4 of Tiafoe’s other wins were on hard in 2022 and 2021. Hard win %’s slightly favour Nakashima.

Nakashima reached the 3rd round last year. 2 sets win over Kovacevic in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Medvedev as underdog in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Borges in the 4th round. 3 sets win over Fritz in the q final as underdog.
He reached the Final in Montreal 2026. Semi finals in Washington 2026, Semi finals in Acapulco 2026, Final in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Semi finals in Chengdu 2025.

Tiafoe reached the 4th round last season. 2 sets win over Sonego in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Tien in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Aliassime as underdog in the 4th round. 2 sets win over Musetti in the q final.
He reached the Quarter finals in Miami 2026, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2026, Final in Acapulco 2026, Quarter finals in Delray Beach 2026, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025.

12 month and 2026 stats favour Nakashima on serve and favour Tiafoe on return. Stats for their last 10 favour Nakashima overall.
Good chance of 3 sets.
Fatigue could be an issue for Nakashima. He reached the final in Montreal and his last 3 matches were 3 setters.
Lay Nakashima around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Tiafoe in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Nakashima serve first. He was taken to deuce before holding. Tiafoe then held to 15.
1-0
1-1

Nakashima was broken to 30. I laid Tiafoe at 1.45.
1-2

Tiafoe went 15-40 behind. He saved the 2 break points but faced another and was broken. I removed liability at 1.95, leaving the green on Tiafoe.
2-2

Nakashima went 0-40 behind. He saved the break points but faced another and was broken. I placed a small lay on Tiafoe at 1.43.
2-3

Tiafoe went 15-40 behind. He saved one of the break points but was broken. I backed him at 1.90 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This left me with a bigger free bet on Tiafoe.
3-3

Nakashima held to 0. Tiafoe then held after saving a break point.
4-3
4-4

Nakashima held to 15.
5-4

Tiafoe saved 3 set points / break points but eventually held serve.
5-5

Nakashima then got broken to 15. Tiafoe served out the set to 30.
5-6
5-7

Stats for the set favoured Tiafoe although both struggled to find first serves as regularly as they would have liked.

After the set, Tiafoe was priced at 1.40/1.41.

Nakashima showed signs of fatigue towards the end of the set. I placed a small lay of Tiafoe at 1.41. Due to the free bet that I had in the first set, this left me with a green on Tiafoe and a larger green on Nakashima. I did not want to use too much of that profit as I favoured Tiafoe to win, and had expected Nakashima to tire.

The first 4 games were easy holds.
2-2

Nakashima saved 2 break points but was broken. I decided to leave my position to run.
2-3

The next 3 games were holds although Tiafoe had to work a little harder for his 2 holds.
2-4
3-4
3-5

Nakashima was broken to 0 to give the set and the match to Tiafoe.
3-6

Tiafoe won 7-5, 6-3.