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ATP Winston Salem
Cerundolo 1.85 v Buse
Due to start at 9 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Cerundolo 2-0. Most recent July 2025, clay, 2 sets. He won on clay in 2024, 3 sets. Hard win %’s favour Cerundolo.

Cerundolo had a tight 2 sets win over Suresh in the 2nd round. In the 3rd round, Baez retired in the 2nd set.
He reached the 3rd Round in Cincinnati 2026.

Buse had a 2 sets win over Altmaier in the 3rd round.
He lost in the 1st round of the US Open 2025 as qualifier. 3 sets win over Walton in the 2nd round.
Very little hard success.

12 month stats favour Buse overall. 2026 stats are more even but still favour Buse.
Lay Cerundolo around 1.50 and remove liability at 1.95.

Match prediction: Buse in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Buse served first. He faced a break point at 40-A and was broken. I laid Cerundolo at 1.50.
1-0

Cerundolo faced a break point at 40-A. He recovered to hold serve.
2-0

Buse saved 2 break points. He faced another after having 2 game points and was broken. The price would not drop much further in this set so I added to my lay at 1.30.
3-0

Cerundolo was broken to 30. The price move for the break was small. I decided to give Buse the chance to follow up with a hold.
3-1

Buse went 15-40 behind. He recovered to hold serve. The market move still wasn’t great, which was understandable. Buse had been broken twice and faced break points in the only game that he held serve. I removed a little liability at 1.42.
3-2

The next 4 games were holds.
4-2
4-3
5-3
5-4

Cerundolo served for the set. He was broken to 15. I removed more liability at 1.90.
5-5

Buse held to 15. I hedged evenly at 2.22 on Cerundolo’s ladder.
5-6

Cerundolo held to 0 to take them into a tie break.
6-6

Buse took the tie break 7-4.
6-7

Stats for the set favoured Buse. Cerundolo had a low first serve percentage of 53% and was winning just 35% of points on his second serve.

After the set, Buse was priced at 1.40/1.41.

I expected 3 sets in the pre match assessment. It had been a close set but obviously, Buse was stronger in the second half of the set.

Cerundolo served first in the second set. I laid Buse at 1.41. Cerundolo held to 15.
1-0

Buse was broken after being taken to deuce. My liability was low due to the profit from the first set. I laid off the liability at 1.84. I wanted to give Cerundolo the chance to hold serve.
2-0

Cerundolo held to 15. I hedged evenly at 2.04.
3-0

Buse held to 30.
3-1

Cerundolo went 0-40 behind. He saved 2 of the break points but was broken.
3-2

Buse was broken to 30.
4-2

Cerundolo saved 2 break points and recovered to hold serve.
5-2

Buse held to 0.
5-3

Cerundolo served for the set. Just as in the first set, he was broken to 15.
5-4

Buse saved a break point but then faced another and was broken to give the set to his opponent.
6-4

Stats for the set weren’t great for either player. Cerundolo’s first serve percentage was even worse than in the first set at 42%. The big difference was that he won 67% of points on his second serve.
Buse dropped his first serve percentage from 71% to 56%. Also, his second serve points won percentage dropped from 50% in the first set to just 29% in the second set.


After the set, Cerundolo was priced at 1.95/1.96.

I rarely trade ATP third sets on hard courts. I was happy with my profit so I stayed away from the decider.

Cerundolo served first and had to save a break point. He held serve.

Buse then took the next 5 games to lead 5-1.

The next 2 games were holds.

Buse won 7-6, 4-6, 6-2.