Daily match picks

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WTA Austin Challenger
Zakharova 1.65 v Golubic
Due to start at 4 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Golubic.

Zakharova beat Stephens in the qual round.
2nd round in Indian Wells, 2nd round in Austin. Semi finals in Cleveland 2025.

Golubic reached the Semi finals in Jiujiang 2025, Quarter finals in Osaka 2025, Quarter finals in Cleveland 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Rakhimova on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Zakharova around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Zakharova in 3 sets.

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Update: Zakharova’s priced dropped to 1.48 pre match. Zakharova served first and held to 0. Golubic then held to 30.

In the next game, Zakharova was broken to 30. Her price only moved to 1.70. Due to the pre match price move, we were quite a distance away from my target price. Sometimes, I will back immediately after a break of the favourite as there is a decent chance of an immediate break back. This time, I waited for Golubic to, hopefully, hold serve before entering.

Golubic held serve to 30 in the next game. I backed Rakhimova at 1.94. Rakhimova then held to 0. In the next game, Golubic faced a break point at 30-40. I removed most of my liability at 1.57. Golubic was broken. The score was now 3-3.

The nest 3 games were easy holds. Golubic served at 4-5 and faced a break point at “Advantage Rakhimova”. I hedged at 1.21. Golubic recovered to hold serve. Rakhimova then held to 0.

Golubic was broken to 0 to give the set to Rakhimova.

Stats in that set were much stronger for Rakhimova.

As I had expected the match to be tight, I laid Rakhimova at the start of the second set. I laid at 1.14.

Rakhimova served first and was broken to 15. As I had no liability from the lay due to profit from the first set, I waited to see if Golubic could hold. She did hold to 30 and I backed Rakhimova at 1.32 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This gave me a green position on both players but a larger green on Rakhimova.

2 games later, Rakhimova broke back to get the score to 2-2. I had some green to play with so I laid her again at 1.16.

In the next game, Rakhimova was broken to 0. I backed Rakhimova at 1.30 to give a bigger green on her. In the next game, Rakhimova broke again after Golubic had saved 2 break points.

One more go. I was pushing my luck now! I laid Rakhimova at 1.18. She was broken to 15! I backed Rakhimova at 1.34.

The score was now 3-4 with Golubic serving. Rakhimova broke back in the next game! I was very tempted to go with another lay but talked myself out of it. I should have risked another one! Rakhimova was broken and Golubic would serve for the set. She was, of course, broken to 15.

Rakhimova then held to 15. There is a pattern in tennis that if you have a run of multiple breaks of serve, if one player then holds, the other player also holds. There had just been 7 consecutive breaks followed by an easy hold. Would Golubic also hold?

No.

She was broken to 15 and Rakhimova took the set and the match.

Rakhimova won 7-5, 7-5.

 

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WTA Challenger, Austin
Lamens v Rakhimova 1.57
Due to start at 5:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Lamens 2-0. Most recent Feb 2025, hard, 3 sets. She won on hard in Dec 2024, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Rakhimova.

Lamens reached the Quarter finals in Seoul 2025, 3rd Round in Montreal 2025.

Rakhimova reached the 2nd round in Indian Wells. Most of her wins in 2026 ere in qual rounds.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Rakhimova.
Lamens has won 1 of her last 10.
Back Rakhimova around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Rakhimova in 2 sets.

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Update: Rakhimova started at 1.45. Liquidity was very low at the start, (2100). She served first and was taken to deuce but held. In the next game, She broke Lamens to 0. I thought Lamens may be able to compete in 1 of the sets so laid Rakhimova at 1.22.

In the next game, Lamens broke back. I removed liability at 1.37, leaving the profit on Rakhimova. The next 2 games were holds.

Lamens served at 2-3 and was broken. I left the free bet to run. In the next game, Lamens again immediately broke back! It was a break to 15. The next 3 games were holds. The score was 5-5. I still had my free bet on Rakhimova.

Rakhimova served next and was broken after saving 1 break point. Lamens served for the set at 6-5. She faced a break point but held to take the set.

Neither player had amazing stats in that set. Low first serve percentage of 54% for Lamens and her second serve points won were a little low at 38%. That isn’t a good combination. Rakhimova had a decent first serve percentage of 65% but was only winning 57% of points on those first serves.

Rakhimova served first in the second set. I waited for her to have her service game. The main options in this situation, where the set loser serves first in the next set are:
I could have laid Lamens at the start of the set.
I could lay half at the start of the set and add the other half after Rakhimova’s service game.
The third main option is to wait for her to have her service game before laying. Lamens could be laid at 1.55 after the first set.

Rakhimova saved 2 break points and had a game point but was broken. I laid Lamens at 1.36. A played who goes a set and a break ahead often relaxes a little and allows their opponent back into the set.

In the next game, Lamens was broken to 30. Rakhimova then held to 30. Lamens was then broken yet again and I hedged at 1.86 on Rakhimova’s ladder (2.10 on Lamens). Liquidity was still low at 32800 but enough traders were in the market. I was not going crazy with the stake size.

Lamens would be broken again and Rakhimova took the set 6-1. There was also a short rain delay towards the end of the set.

Rakhimova was at 1.48 after the second set.

In set 3, Rakhimova broke Lamens to 15 in the third game. Rakhimova’s price dropped at 1.30. Using some of the profit, I laid her.

3 games later, Lamens broke back to get to 3-3 and I hedged.

The next 2 games were holds. Lamens served at 4-5 and was broken to 0. Rakhimova successfully served out the set.

Rakhimova won 5-7, 6-1, 6-4.