Daily match picks

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Download link: Trading Tips 4th June

WTA Makarska Challenger
Lazaro Garcia 1.79 v Semenistaja
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent Oct 2025, clay, Garcia in 3 sets. Semenistaja won on hard in 2025, 3 sets. Clay win %’s favour Garcia.

Garcia had a 2 sets win as underdog over Samson in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Waltert as underdog in the 2nd round
She won a CH title in March. CH semi in Oct. CH semi in Sep.

Semenistaja reached the q final last season. 2 sets win in the 2nd round.
2 CH q finals in April. Quarter final in Bogota 2026. CH final and semi in Sep. CH semi in July.

12 month stats are quite even with a slight edge to Semenistaja.
2026 CH stats are stronger for Garcia overall.
Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Semenistaja around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Lazaro Garcia in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Pre match, Garcia’s price moved from 1.79 to 1.63.

Semenistaja served first and held serve after being taken to deuce.
0-1

Garcia was broken to 0. I backed Garcia at 2.14.
0-2

Semenistaja went 0-40 behind. I removed some liability at 1.82. She saved 2 break point but was broken.
1-2

Garcia held to 15.
2-2

Semenistaja was broken after being taken to deuce twice. I hedged evenly at 1.34 on Garcia’s ladder.
3-2

Garcia was broken to 15.
3-3

Semenistaja was broken after saving 3 break points. I laid Garcia at 1.33.
4-3

Garcia faced a break point at 30-40. I could have hedged at 1.40. I chose to wait for the break. She recovered to hold.
5-3

Semenistaja held to 30.
5-4

Garcia served for the set and went 0-40 behind. I hedged at 1.47. She saved 2 break point but was broken.
5-5

The next 2 games were holds and they went into a tie break.
5-6
6-6

Semenistaja took the tie break 7-4
6-7

Their stats for the set were fairly even. Both broken 3 times. Garcia had the better first serve percentage but the lower points won on first serve percentage.
Semenistaja was priced 1.88/1.89 after the set.

Garcia served first in the second set. I wanted to lay Semenistaja but waited for Garcia to have her service game.

Garcia was broken to 30. I laid Semenistaja at 1.54.
0-1

Semenistaja was broken to 0. I stayed with the lay of Semenistaja.
1-1

Garcia held to 30. Semenistaja was then broken to 15. I hedged at 1.51 on Garcia’s ladder (2.96 on Semenistaja’s ladder).
2-1
3-1

Garcia was broken to 15.
3-2

The next 2 games were holds.
3-3
4-3

Semenistaja was broken to 30. Garcia served out the set to 30.
5-3
6-3

Both players dropped their level in the second set. Semenistaja had the weakest stats on serve.

Garcia ended the second set priced at 1.39/1.40.

Semenistaja served first. She held serve after being taken to deuce. Garcia held to 15.
0-1
1-1

Semenistaja was broken after saving 2 break points. I laid Garcia at 1.22 using a third of the profit gained in the opening 2 sets.
2-1

The next 32 games were holds.
3-1
3-2

Garcia faced a break point at 40-A. I hedged evenly at 1.34. She saved 3 break points and held serve.
4-2

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
4-3
5-3
5-4

Garcia was serving for the match and was priced 1.17/1.18. I used some of my profit to lay at 1.18.
She was broken to 15. I hedged at 1.76.
5-5

Semenistaja was broken to 0. I laid Garcia at 1.19.
6-5

Garcia was broken to 30! I hedged evenly at 1.73.
6-6

They went into a tie break. It was tight and Semenistaja won it 7-5.
6-7

Semenistaja won 7-6, 3-6, 7-6.