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WTA US Open
Li 1.64 v Vekic
Due to start at 9:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Li 1-0 (Sep 2021, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %’s favour Li.

Li reached the 4th round last year. 2 sets win over Ruzic in the 1st round.
She reached the Semi finals in Monterrey 2026, 3rd Round in Doha 2026, Title in Guangzhou 2025.

Vekic reached the 2nd round last season. 3 sets win over Gibson in the 1st round.
She reached a CH final in Jan. Quarter finals in Chennai 2025.

12 month and 2026 stats strongly favour Li. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Li around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Li in 3 sets

Update: I wasn’t able to trade this match as it was delayed. I will apply my usual rules to the match as if I HAD traded it.

Li served first. She had to save a break point but she held serve.
1-0

The next 2 games were holds.
1-1
2-1

Vekic had to save a break point but recovered to hold.
2-2

Li was broken to 30. i would have backed Li.
2-3

The next 3 games were holds.
2-4
3-4
3-5

Li went 15-40 behind. 2 set points for Vekic. As I would have intended to add to my position with a lay of Vekic if she took the set, I would have laid Vekic at 15-40.
Li recovered to hold.
4-5

Vekic was broken to 30. I’d have hedged.
5-5

Li was immediately broken again. When a player is broken when serving for the set, if they then earn the chance to serve for it again, they usually make a much better job of it. I’d have waited for set 2. Vekic easily served out the set.
5-6
5-7

Stats for the set were stronger for Vekic overall.

Li served first in the second set so I would have waited for her to have her service game before laying Vekic.
Li held to 30. I would have laid Vekic.
1-0

The next 6 games were holds although Li faced a break point in 2 of her service games.
4-3

Vekic went 15-40 behind. I would probably have hedged evenly. She saved 3 break points in that game before holding.
4-4

The next 4 games were holds and they went into a tie break.
Li took the tie break 7-4.
7-6

Decent stats for both players. Li’s first serve percentage was a little low at 55%.

In a WTA third set, I wait to lay the player who breaks first, as long as the price is decent.
Whilst both player faced break points, the first 8 games were holds.
4-4

Vekic was broken to 15. As I would have had profit from previous rounds, I may have placed a small lay of Li when she served for the match. There was only 1 break in the set so I’d be a little more likely not to take the lay. I would probably have left the match mid way through the third set if I was happy with the profit.
6-4

Li won 5-7, 7-6, 6-4.