Trading Tip – ATP Australian Open, Popyrin v Muller
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ATP Australian Open
Popyrin 1.49 v Muller
Due to start at 7:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10
Popyrin 1-0 (Oct 2020, clay, 2 sets). Hard win %’s are even.
Popyrin lost in the 1st round last year.
Quarter finals in Toronto 2025.
Muller lost in the 1st round last season.
2nd round in Hong Kong 2026, Title in Hong Kong 2025.
12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Popyrin on serve.
Back Popyrin around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60. 4 sets.
Match prediction: Popyrin in 4 sets.
**Note, the price on Popyrin has changed since I wrote the Trading Tips email so I have amended the target prices (That’s why I give a player’s price in the tips!)
Update: Popyrin started at 1.41. In the first set, Popyrin took a double break 4-1 lead. I intended laying after the first set anyway so I laid at 4-1 at 1.12.
There were no more breaks, or even break points in the set. After the set, I could have laid at 1.13 so the earlier lay at least gave a chance of a first set profit with little risk.
Muller served first in set 2. He faced a break point but recovered to hold. The next 4 games were holds of serve with no break points. In the next game, Popyrin served at 2-3. He went 15-40 behind. I removed half my liability at 1.31. He saved the first break point but was broken to 30. Popyrin’s price reached 1.39. I removed the remaining liability and left the green on Muller. I wanted to give him chance to take the set. The next 3 games were all holds to 15. I hedged evenly at 1.50 at the end of the set.
In the third set, Muller faced 2 break points in is first service game and was broken to 0 in his second service game. As I favoured Popyrin to win, I stayed out of this set. I did not watch the rest of the set. There were no more breaks in the set although Popyrin faced 4 break points when serving at 4-2.
I was involved in another match after that but noticed a little later that Popyrin was about to break in the 4th set. After the break, he could be laid at 1.05. I used some of my green to lay him. The next 4 games were all holds with only one of them seeing the receiver get to 30. In the next game, Popyrin went 15-40 behind. I hedged evenly at 1.16. He saved the first break point but was broken.
The next 4 games were holds with no break points and they went into a tie break. I had stopped following the match after I hedged at 4-4.
Muller took the tie break to take the match into a 5th set. Popyrin served for the match at 5-3 but was broken to 15. They again went to a tie break and Muller easily won that to take the match.
Muller won 2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 7-6, 7-6.
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