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Download link: Trading Tips 14th July

WTA Athens
Hontama v Parks 1.66
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent July 2025, hard, Parks in 2 sets. Hontama won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Hontama.

Hontama had a surprise win over Linette in the 1st round.
Her best results are in ITF’s. ITF semis in June and April.

Parks had a tight 2 sets win in the 1st round as 1.06 favourite.
She reached the 3rd Round in Miami 2026, Quarter finals in Jiujiang 2025, Semi finals in Monterrey 2025.

12 month hard stats favour Parks on serve. return stats are much stronger for Hontama.
Chance of 3 sets. In the last round, Parks hit 13 double faults and was broken 5 times.
Lay Parks around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.85. Lay set 1 winner.

Match prediction: Hontama in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Parks served first. She saved a break point but held serve.
0-1

Hontama was taken to deuce before being broken. I laid Parks at 1.38.
0-2

Parks held to 0.
0-3

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.

1-3
1-4

Hontama was broken to 0. If Parks took the set, I intended laying her so I added to my lay of Parks at 1.18. The price would not go much lower than this at the end of the set.
1-5

Parks served for the set. She went 0-40 behind. The price only moved to 1.22 so I did not remove any liability. I would take the lay into the second set. Parks saved 2 of the break points but was broken.
2-5

Hontama held to 30.
3-5

Parks was broken to 30. I removed the liability at 1.47, leaving the green on Hontama.
4-5

Hontama held to 30. I hedged at 1.71.
5-5

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.
5-6
6-6

In the tie break, Parks took a 4-0 lead. I laid her at 1.31.
Hontama took the next 5 points to lead 5-4 and I hedged at 2.12.
She also took the next 2 points to win the set!
7-6

Stats for the set favoured Hontama overall. She had a lower first serve points won % but Parks was only getting 51% of her first serves into play.

Even though I had predicted 3 sets, I felt Parks would be pretty disappointed to lose that set after leading 5-1 before the tie break and also leading 4-0 in the tie break. I did not lay Hontama.

Hontama served first and held to 30.
1-0

Parks saved a break point but was then broken. I laid Hontama at 1.18.
2-0

Hontama was broken to 30. As the lay of Hontama was risk free due to the profit from the first set, I let the lay run.
2-1

Parks held to 30.
2-2

Hontama was broken to 30.
2-3

Parks held to 15.
2-4

Hontama was broken for a third time in the set. I hedged at 1.60 on Parks’ ladder (the same as 2.68 on Hontama’s ladder).
2-5

Parks served for the set. She was taken to deuce twice but held.
2-6

Stats were (obviously) much better for Parks in that set. 1 point from 9 on second serve for Hontama.

I did not trade the third set as England’s match had just started.

Parks took a 4-0 lead. Hontama recovered to 4-4.

Hontama then held to lead 5-4. In the next game she had a break point / match point but couldn’t take it. Parks held.

Parks broke her in the next game to lead 6-5. She easily served out the match to 15.

Parks won 6-7, 6-2, 7-5.