Daily match picks

Cleveland quarter final
Rus 1.89 v Kessler 2.08
Due to start at 5:30 pm

1st meeting. Hard win %’s are better for Kessler.

Rus beat Bronzetti in 2 close sets in the first round. 2 sets win over Tomova in the second round. She reached the second round of the Australian Open. Quarter finals in Hobart.

Kessler beat Scott in 3 sets in the first round. She beat Xinyu Wang in 3 sets as underdog in the last round. She won an ITF title in Aug. Challenger title in Feb. Second round at the Australian Open. She lost in the qualifying rounds of the US Open.

12 month WTA stats are better for Kessler. Stats in 2024 are pretty even. ROI in 2024 is much better for Kessler.
Lay Rus around 1.50 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets. I favour Kessler.

I am often asked if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.

 

Second round
Wozniacki 1.72 v Pavlyuchenkova 1.34
Due to start at 11:30 pm

Wozniacki 7-2. Most recent Oct 2017, hard, Wozniacki in 2. She won on hard in Sep 2017, 2 sets. Pavlyuchenkova won on hard in 2012, 2 sets. Hard win %’s are fairly even.

Wozniacki lost in the first round last year. Straight sets win over Kalinina in the first round. Quarter finals in Indian Wells. Second round of the Australian Open. Fourth round of the US Open.

Pavlyuchenkova lost in the first round last year. 3 sets win over Haddad Maia in the first round. Fourth round in Indian Wells. Semi final in Doha. Second round of the Australian Open. Quarter finals in Adelaide. Quarter finals in Hong Kong. Semi final in Tokyo. Second round of the US Open.

12 month and 2024 stats favour Pavlyuchenkova. Return stats and predicted holds favour Wozniacki. Good chance of 3 sets.
Back Wozniacki around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.65. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Pavlyuchenkova got the first break to lead 3-2. I backed Wozniacki. Wozniacki broke straight back in the next game and I removed almost all my liability, leaving the profit on Wozniacki.
Pavlyuchenkova broke again to lead 6-5. I placed a small back on Wozniacki. In the next game, Pavlyuchenkova went 15-40 behind and I removed all my liability. Pavlyuchenkova recover to hold and to win the set.
As I already had a free bet on Wozniacki, I did not add to the position.
Wozniacki was broken in the first game of set 2. The match was suspended with the score at 4-2. I hedged evenly.
They resumed the next day. There were no break points in the set and Pavlyuchenkova won the match 7-5, 6-4.

I am often asked if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.