Trading Tip – WTA Memphis, Sonmez v Kalieva

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Download link: Trading Tips 28th July

WTA Memphis
Sonmez 1.50 v Kalieva
Due to start at 8 pm

Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Kalieva.

Sonmez needed 3 sets in the 1st round as 1.16 favourite.
She reached the Quarter finals in Merida 2026, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026, 3rd Round in Beijing 2025.

Kalieva had a 2 sets win in the 1st round as favourite.
She reached the 2nd round in Maimi 2026 as qualifier. CH q final in Oct.

12 month WTA stats favour Kalieva on serve. 2026 stats also favour Kalieva overall.
Sonmez has better WTA results in 2026.
Chance of 3 sets.
Back Sonmez around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Sonmez in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Sonmez served first. She was broken to 15. Her price only moved to 1.85. Often, in this situation, I would back her but due to the poor value, I would use a reduced stake. This time, I decided to wait to give Kalieva the chance to take the first point of her service game.
0-1

Kalieva did take the first point and I backed Sonmez at 2.02. Kalieva was taken to deuce twice and was broken. I removed liability at 1.57, leaving the green on Sonmez.
1-1

Sonmez saved 2 break points but recovered to hold.
2-1

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
2-2
3-2
3-3
4-3

Kalieva saved 3 break points but was eventually broken.
5-3

Sonmez had to save 2 break points when serving for the set but did eventually hold.
6-3

Stats for the set were better for Sonmez overall. She had a better first serve percentage and a better first serve points won percentage.

After the set, Sonmez was priced at 1.20/1.21.

Set 1 stats

Kalieva served first in the second set. When the first set loser serves first in the second set, I usually wait for them to have their service game before laying the set winner.

Kalieva was broken to 15. I laid Sonmez at 1.09. The lay was risk free due to the free bet on Sonmez from the first set.
1-0

Sonmez was broken after being taken to deuce twice. I backed Sonmez at 1.18 using the same stake used to lay her. This increased the free bet on Sonmez.
1-1

The next 2 games were holds.
1-2
2-2

Kalieva was broken after being taken to deuce. I laid Sonmez again at 1.10.
3-2

Sonmez was broken to 30. I hedged evenly at 1.20. This set could go either way.
3-3

Easy hold for Kalieva.
3-4

Sonmez saved 2 break points and held serve.
4-4

The next 3 games were holds. Sonmez again had to save 2 break points in her game.
4-5
5-5
5-6

Sonmez saved a break point. She faced another and this time, she was broken to give the set to Kalieva.
5-7

Stats for the set were really poor for Sonmez on first serve points won. She won 38% of points on that first serve.

Set 2 stats

It was late so I didn’t trade the third set.

Looking at the point by point data, it was a messy set!
Kalieva served first. She saved 3 break point before holding.
0-1

Sonmez saved a break point and held.
1-1

Kalieva was broken.
2-1

Sonmez held after being taken to deuce.
3-1

Kalieva was broken again.
4-1

Sonmez was broken. Then Kalieva held. Sonmez was broken again!
4-2
4-3
4-4

Kalieva was broken again.
5-4

Sonmez served for the match but was broken to 0.
5-5

Kalieva held to 30.
5-6

Sonmez was broken to 15 to give the set and the match to Kalieva.
5-7

Kalieva won 3-6, 7-5, 7-5.

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Trading Tip – WTA Washington, Eala v Zheng

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Download link: Trading Tips 27th July

WTA Washington
Eala v Zheng 1.75
Due to start at 6 pm

Confidence rating 6.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Eala.

Eala reached the 4th Round in Miami 2026, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2026, Quarter finals in Dubai 2026, Quarter finals in Abu Dhabi 2026, Semi finals in Auckland 2026, Quarter finals in Sao Paulo 2025.

Zheng reached the Quarter final in Athens 2026. Quarter finals in Athens 2026, 4th Round in Miami 2026, 3rd Round in Doha 2026.

12 month hard stats favour Zheng on serve. 2026 stats also favour her. Recent form on all surfaces favours Eala.
Lay Zheng around 1.45 and remove liability at 1.95.

Match prediction: Eala in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: When the match started, Zheng was priced at 1.83

Eala served first. She was taken to deuce but held.
1-0

Zheng was broken to 15. I expected the match to be tight with 3 sets. I laid Eala at 1.62.
2-0

Eala went 40-0 ahead but was broken! I removed liability by backing Eala at 1.98, leaving the green on her.
2-1

The next 3 games were all holds with no break points although Zheng was taken to deuce twice in both her service games.
2-2
3-2
3-3

Eala went 0-40 behind. She saved 2 of the break points but was broken. I stuck with the free bet on Eala. If she lost the first set, I planned on laying Zheng anyway.
3-4

Zheng was taken to deuce twice in her next service game but the remaining 3 games of the set were all holds.
3-5
4-5
4-6

Stats for the set were average for Eala. Zheng won 88% of points on her first serve but had a low first serve percentage of 45%. She was only winning 33% of points on second serve.

At the end of the set, Zheng was priced at 1.37/1.38.

Set 1 stats

So, I went into set 2 with a free bet on Eala.

Eala served first in the second set. The first 2 games were holds.
1-0
1-1

Eala went 0-40 behind. I laid Zheng at 1.24. Eala recovered to hold. I could have removed the small liability but chose to wait for a better price if Eala got her nose in front.
2-1

Zheng went 15-40 behind. I backed Zheng at 1.65 to remove the liability and increase my free bet on Eala. Zheng also recovered to hold.
2-2

The next 2 games were holds.
3-2
3-3

Eala was broken to 0. Maybe Zheng was going to get a straight sets win. I try to stay with my pre match assessment for as long as I can. Zheng had only managed one easy hold in the set. I laid Zheng at 1.12.
3-4

Zheng was broken to 0! I removed liability at 1.40 on Zheng’s ladder, this time leaving some green on Zheng and the larger green on Eala. I was pushing my luck now. At 4-4, Eala could not afford to be broken. I didn’t want to come out of the match with zero.
4-4

Eala held to 30. The pressure shifted to Zheng!
5-4

Zheng was broken to 30 to give the set to Eala.
6-4

Zheng was priced at 2.06/2.08. I placed a small back on Zheng at 2.06 to move some more of the profit onto her. I still had a larger profit on Eala.

In that set, both players were struggling to find first serves. Eala was doing much better when she did manage to land a first serve.

Set 2 stats

Eala served first in the third set. She held to 15.
1-0

Zheng was broken to 15. I was tempted to lay her but I was already green with the larger profit on my favoured player.
2-0

Eala held to 30 and then broke Zheng again.
3-0
4-0

The next 2 games were both breaks and then Eala served out the match to 30.
4-1
5-1
6-1

Sonmez won 4-6, 6-4, 6-1.

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