Daily match picks

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WTA Challenger, Dubrovnik
Quevedo v Erjavec 1.66
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. 12 month clay win %’s are even.

Quevedo had a 2 sets win as underdog in the 1st round.
ITF title in Aug. CH q final in July. ITF title in June. ITF final in April.

Erjavec had a close 2 sets win over De Reales as favourite in the 1st round.
CH semi final this month. CH semi in Feb. CH semi in Nov. 2 CH titles in Sep.

12 month Challenger stats favour Erjavec overall. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Erjavec.
Quevedo is a capable clay player but has played just 1 clay match in 2026.
Back Erjavec around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Erjavec in 3 sets.

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Update: This match was badly delayed and I was not able to trade it. I had a live stream for Tradeshark and Tennis Profits members at 5 pm and I needed to get something to eat before the stream.

I have rules that I apply to my trades and I will use those to suggest how it could have been traded. I took a screen shot of Erjavec’s price in the first set which will help.

Quevedo served first. She faced a break point but recovered to hold. In the next game, Erjavec went 15-40 behind. I would normally wait for the favourite to be broken before backing but it looks like the target price was reached at 15-40 so I would have place a back on Erjavec. She saved 4 break points in that game and eventually held. Her price after the hold would have been close to the suggested price for removing liability (1.70).

Due to Quevedo missing 4 break points in the previous game, I would most likely NOT have reduced liability as there was a chance that Quevedo would struggle in the next service game. In fact, she held to 15! That was followed by an easy hold for Erjavec.

in the next game, Quevedo went 15-40 behind and I would have removed liability, leaving a free bet on Erjavec. She won the next 3 games (2 holds and a break) to take the set. I would have hedged after the second break at 5-2. Probably around 1.25-1.30.

Stats for the set were poor for Quevedo and I would not have been convinced that she was going to fight back. I think it is likely that I would not have continued into the second set.

Quevedo served first in the second set and held to 30. Erjavec was taken to deuce in the next game but held. In the next game, Quevedo was broken to 15. That was followed by an easy hold for Erjavec.

Erjavec broke again to lead 4-1. There were no more breaks in the set.

Erjavec won 6-2, 6-2.

 

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WTA Miami
Mboko 1.96 v Muchova
Due to start at 6 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Muchova 1-0 (Feb 2026, hard, 2 sets). 12 month hard win %’s are even. Muchova leads in 2026.

Mboko reached the 2nd round last season. Very easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Zakharova in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Andreeva in the 4th round.
Final in Doha 2026, 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Final in Adelaide 2026, Title in Hong Kong 2025, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Title in Montreal 2025.

Muchova reached the 3rd round last year. Tight 3 sets win over Osorio in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Boulter in the 3rd round. Very easy win over Eala in the 4th round.
4th round in Indian Wells 2026, Title in Doha 2026, 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Muchova on serve.
Lay Mboko around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Muchova in 3 sets.

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Update: Muchova started the match at 1.84.

In the first 10 games, there was just 1 break point. That was on Muchova’s serve in the second game. She saved it and held. Mboko served at 5-5 and was broken to 30. Muchova served out the set after being taken to deuce twice.

After the set, Muchova was priced at 1.40.

Mboko served first in set 2. She faced and saved a break point. The next 8 games were holds of serve with no break points. In the next game, Muchova faced and saved a break point / set point and held serve. The set went to a tie break.

In the tie break, Muchova took a 4-0 lead. She dropped to 1.06. More out of boredom than anything else, I laid her. Mboko won her next service point and then got one of the mini breaks back to take the score to 2-4. I removed liability at 1.15.

Muchova had a match point on her own serve at 6-4 but Mboko won the point to get the tie break back on serve. I hedged at 1.23. Mboko served at 5-6 and lost her serve and the tie break.

Muchova won 7-5, 7-6.