This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service. Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match. Get the Trading Tips emailed to you 7 days a week.
ATP Kitzbuhel Molcan 1.79 v Altmaier Due to start at 2:30 pm Confidence rating 7.5/10
Molcan 2-0. Most recent July 2026, grass, 4 sets. He won on clay in Apr 2026, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Molcan.
Molcan had a 2 sets win over Ofner in the 1st round. He reached the Semi finals in Umag 2026, Semi finals in Munich 2026, Quarter finals in Bucharest 2026.
Altmaier had a 2 sets win over Collignon in the 1st round as underdog. He reached the 2nd round in Bastad 2026. Quarter final in Hamburg 2026. Quarter final in Bucharest 2026.
12 month clay stats favour Molcan Back Molcan around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.
Update: Molcan served first. The first 2 games were holds with no break points. 1-0 1-1
Molcan was broken to 15. I laid Altmaier at 1.64 (the same as 2.56 on the Molcan ladder) 1-2
Altmaier went 0-40 behind. I removed liability by laying Molcan at 1.93 using a stake equal to the red on Altmaier. 2-2
The next 3 games were holds with no break points. 3-2 3-3 4-3
Altmaier was broken after being taken to deuce. I hedged evenly at 1.29 on Molcan. 5-3
Molcan served out the set to 30. 6-3
Molcan was priced at 1.24/1.25 at the end of the set.
Stats for the set favour Molcan overall. He had the lower first serve percentage at 66% compared to Altmaier’s 79% but Molcan was winning a higher percentage of points on first serve. Altmaier won 47% of first serve points.
Altmaier served first in the second set. I laid Molcan at 1.25. If it had been a WTA match, I would have waited for the set loser to have their service game before laying. Altmaier held after being taken to deuce. 0-1
The next 2 games were holds with no break points. 1-1 1-2
Molcan was broken to 15. My lay of Molcan was risk free so I waited to see if Altmaier could hold. 1-3
Altmaier held to 0. I hedged evenly at 1.75 on Molcan’s ladder. 1-4
Molcan was broken again, this time to 30. 1-5
Altmaier was broken to 15. 2-5
The next 2 games were holds and Altmaier took the set. 3-5 3-6
Stats for the second set were much stronger for Altmaier. After the set, Molcan was priced at 1.85.
Molcan served first in the third set. There were no breaks in the first 5 games although Molcan had to save 4 break points when he served at 1-1. 3-2
Altmaier was broken after saving 3 break points. I placed a small lay of Molcan at 1.15. 4-2
Molcan went 0-40 behind and I hedged at 1.54. 4-3
The next 4 games were holds with no break points. 4-4 5-4 5-5 6-5
Altmaier saved 3 match point but was eventually broken. 7-5
One of the biggest challenges for new tennis traders is deciding which match to trade.
This is especially true during the first week of Grand Slam tournaments, where there can be many more matches than usual taking place at the same time.
Many beginners think they need to watch everything. They don’t want to miss an opportunity.
In reality, the opposite is true.
I understand people’s problem. In my early couple of years of tennis trading, I remember trying to monitor the scores of every live match, hoping to spot several opportunities. I didn’t want to miss out.
Successful trading is often about ignoring the majority of matches and concentrating on the few that offer the best opportunities.
More Matches Doesn’t Mean More Opportunities
It’s easy to assume that having more matches means making more money.
That isn’t necessarily the case.
A busy day can actually tempt traders into taking poor-quality trades simply because there is so much action.
I’ve always believed it’s better to trade one high-quality opportunity than several average ones.
Being selective is one of the most valuable skills you can develop.
Death by tennis ball
Start Before The Matches Begin
Good match selection starts long before the players walk onto the court.
I spend time analysing the day’s ATP and WTA schedule before the first match starts.
The aim is to identify which matches are most likely to produce the type of trading opportunities I’m looking for.
Having a shortlist means I’m prepared before the action begins, rather than making rushed decisions as matches get underway. Also, if I am considering entering a match that is already half way through, I already have the match research to hand. I can more quickly get up to speed with the match.
Not Every Favourite Is Worth Trading
One mistake many beginners make is assuming every favourite is a good trading opportunity.
That simply isn’t true.
What IS true is that a high percentage of market favourites do win matches.
Some favourites are priced correctly. Most are at a lower price than they should be and so they offer little value.
Others are involved in matches that don’t suit the strategies I use.
Just because a player is expected to win doesn’t automatically make the match worth trading.
Know What You’re Looking For
Before I decide to trade a match, I need to have solid reasons for the trade.
The reasons can usually vary depending on the stage of the match. It the match is just about to start or is just a few games in, then the pre match analysis is what I would base a possible entry on.
If the match is almost over, the reason could be as simple as the fact that a player is 1 or 2 games away from winning the match but has struggled on their serve in the current set. The price will be low, so it is reasonable to assume that they won’t close out the match with no drama. So, it is low risk with a decent chance of success.
Every trader should have clear reasons for entering the market. Imagine that you have someone sat next to you while you trade. You have to explain to them why you are about to enter the trade. If you can’t do that without sounding like an idiot, it’s probably best to wait for a different opportunity.
The best trades begin with a clear plan rather than a spur-of-the-moment decision.
Accept That You’ll Miss Opportunities
This is something many beginners struggle with.
No matter how experienced you become, you’ll never catch every good trade.
That’s perfectly normal. You also should not beat yourself up for not getting the very best entry price or the best possible exit price. It’s just not realistic.
There will always be another match.
Trying to trade everything usually leads to mistakes, rushed decisions and unnecessary losses.
Missing a good opportunity is far better than forcing a bad one.
New opprtunities
Focus On Quality, Not Quantity
When there are lots of matches, your goal shouldn’t be to have the busiest trading day possible.
Your goal should be to make good decisions.
Some days that might mean trading several matches.
On other days it might mean trading only one.
The number of trades is far less important than the quality of the opportunities you choose.
What Should I Do In the Early Rounds of Grand Slam Tournaments?
From experience, this isn’t easy to do, but pick a match and stick with it.
That doesn’t mean you should trade it from the first point to match point. Once you get a profit that you’re happy with, or once you hit your stop loss figure, move on to a different match.
Actually following this advice gets easier once you see for yourself that I does work. It is less stressful.
Use the fact that there are lots of matches to your advantage. Once you are done with your current trade, normally you might have to wait 30 minutes to a couple of hours for the next match that you want to trade. In the first few days of a huge tournament, you can find another match pretty much straight away.
That’s where the potential for bigger profits comes from.
Experience Makes Match Selection Easier
The more matches you analyse, the easier it becomes to recognise patterns.
You’ll become better at spotting situations that suit your style of trading.
You’ll also become much more comfortable rejecting matches that don’t meet your criteria.
In my experience, this confidence is one of the biggest differences between beginners and experienced traders.
Experience
Final Thoughts
Having lots of matches to choose from can feel overwhelming at first.
The secret isn’t trying to trade them all.
It’s learning how to identify the few that offer the best opportunities.
Careful preparation, patience and discipline will always produce better results than simply chasing action.
Every morning I analyse the day’s ATP and WTA matches before deciding which ones are worth trading. My daily Trading Tips service shares that analysis with members, while my TradeShark Tennis Trading Course explains the thinking behind the process and the strategies I use once a suitable opportunity has been identified.
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