Trading Tip – Bad Homburg, Eala v Mertens
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Download link>> Trading Tips 21st June
WTA Bad Homburg
Eala v Mertens 1.81
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10
Mertens 2-0. Most recent April 2026, clay, 2 sets.
Eala reached the Semi final in Berlin 2026. 2nd round in London 2026. CH title in June. Final in Eastbourne 2025.
Mertens lost in the 1st round last season.
2nd round in Berlin 2026. 2nd round in Hertogenbosch 2026. 4th round at Wimbledon 2025.
12 month grass stats favour Mertens on serve. Recent performances favour Eala.
Lay Mertens around 1.50 and remove liability at 1.95. Chance of 3 sets.
Match prediction: Eala in 3 sets.
Embed from Getty ImagesUpdate: I was not able to trade this match. I have rules that I use during matches and I will apply those to this match as I HAD traded it. I will not have the prices available.
Eala served first. She was taken to deuce 3 times but held without facing a break point. The next 2 games were holds.
1-0
1-1
2-1
Mertens saved 2 break points but was eventually broken. As I expected 3 sets, I would have backed Mertens.
3-1
Eala was broken to 30. I would have removed most or all of my liability, leaving the profit on Mertens.
3-2
Mertens held to 15. Eala then faced a break point at 30-40. I could have hedged then or could have waited for the break before hedging. It is most likely that I would have hedged evenly at 30-40. Eala was broken.
3-3
3-4
Mertens held to 30
3-5
Eala saved 3 break points but was eventually broken.
3-6
Stats for the set favoured Mertens. Eala had a lowish first serve percentage and won just 25% of second serve points.
Mertens served first in the second set. As I favoured Eala in the pre match assessment, I’d have placed a small lay on Mertens, using the first set profit to keep it risk free.
Mertens faced a break point at 30-40. I could have hedged at this point but the price move will not have been huge so I would probably have waited for the break. Mertens recovered to hold.
0-1
Eala was broken to 30. I would have left my position as it was with a small green on Mertens and a larger green on Eala.
0-2
The next 5 games were holds.
2-5
Eala went 0-40 behind. She saved the break points and held serve.
3-5
Mertens easily served out the match.
3-6
Mertens won 6-3, 6-3.
In matches where your favoured player loses in straight sets, these are the types of matches that can results in larger losses. To come out with a small profit would be a real positive.
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