Daily match picks

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WTA Miami qualifying
Hunter v Masarova 1.66
Due to start at 5 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Masarova 1-0 (Feb 2022, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %’s favour Hunter.

Hunter reached the 2nd round in Indian Wells as qualifier. 2nd round of the Aus Open as qualifier.

Masarova reached the 3rd round as qualifier last season.
Quarter finals in Austin 2026, 3rd Round in Miami 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Masarova on serve.
Back Masarova around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Masarova in 2 sets.

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Update: Hunter served first and was broken to 30. As I favoured Masarova to win in 2 sets, I waited to see if Hunter was going to be competitive. Hunter did not force a single break point and was broken again before the end of the set.

After the set, Masarova was priced at 1.15. Often after an easy set, the set winner can switch off a little in the early games of set 2. I let Hunter have her service game at the start of the set. She held to 30. I laid Masarova at 1.19.

The next 6 games were all holds of serve with no break points. Masarova served at 3-4. I was waiting for 4-4 as that would be my exit after laying the set 1 winner. Masarova was broken to 15. I removed the liability at 1.59, leaving the green on Masarova.

In the next game, Hunter served for the set but was broken to 30. In the next game, Masarova saved 2 break points but was eventually broken which gave the set to Hunter.

Hunter’s stats had improved a lot from the first set

I left my free bet to run on Masarova. Hunter served first in set 3 and was broken to 0. The next 3 games were easy holds.

Hunter served at 1-3 and was broken to 15. I hedged at 1.04. The next 3 games were all breaks. Masarova served at 5-2 and held to 30.

Masarova won 6-2, 4-6, 6-2.

 

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Cap Cana Challenger
Bellucci 1.54 v Navone
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Bellucci.

Bellucci lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win in the 1st round as favourite. 2 sets win over Hurkacz in the 2nd round as underdog. 2 sets win over Collignon as underdog in the q final. 2 sets win over Walton in the semi final.
Quarter final in Acapulco 2026. CH semi in Jan.

Navone had a 3 sets win as 1.17 favourite in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round as slight favourite. 2 sets win over Royer as slight underdog in the q final. 3rd set tie break win over Blockx in the semi final.
3rd round in Winston Salem 2025.

12 month ATP stats favour Bellucci on serve. 12 month CH stats favour him on serve. 2026 stats also favour him on serve. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Bellucci around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Bellucci in 3 sets.

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Update: Bellucci served first. He went 15-40 behind but recovered to hold. In the next game, Navone was broken to 15. I laid Bellucci at 1.29.

In the next game, Bellucci was broken. I removed most of my liability at 1.47, leaving the green on Navone. Navone then held after being taken to deuce. The score was now 2-2.

In the next game, Bellucci went 15-40 behind. I hedged evenly at 1.88. He was broken to 30. The next 2 games were holds.

Navone served at 4-3 and was broken to 30. The next 2 games were holds of serve. Bellucci served at 5-5 and was broken.

With Navone leading 6-5, the match was suspended due to the “heat rule”. The match was suspended for an hour and 10 minutes. If I had not already been hedged, I would have hedged when the suspension happened. You never know how a player will handle a long delay.

When the match restarted, Navone held to 0 to take the set.

I was not at my desk when the match restarted and did not enter the market again.

Bellucci, apparently, did not handle the delay well and went 0-4 behind in the second set. Navone moved to a 5-1 lead. Bellucci took the next 3 games and Navone easily held when serving at 5-4 to take the match.

Navone won 7-5, 6-4.