Daily match picks

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WTA Indian Wells
Sakkari 1.53 v Tagger
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Tagger.

Sakkari reached the 3rd round last year.
Semi finals in Doha 2026, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Quarter finals in Washington 2025.

Tagger had a 2 sets win over Gracheva in the 1st round.
She reached a CH final in Feb. ITF title in Jan. Final in Jiujiang 2025.

12 month stats favour Sakkari on serve. Stats for their last 10 favour her overall.
Recent performances favour Sakkari. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Sakkari around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Sakkari in 3 sets.

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Update: Sakkari served first. She faced 2 break points but recovered to hold. The next 2 games were easy holds.

In the next game, Tagger served at 1-2. She went 15-40 behind. I laid Sakkari at 1.30. I like to enter at 15-40 or 0-40 as there is a chance that the server will recover. In this case, Tagger DID recover to hold serve. I removed liability at 1.50, leaving the green on Sakkari.

The next 7 games were all holds. The only break points were when Sakkari served at 3-3, She faced 2 break points but recovered. Tagger served at 5-6 and was broken to 15 to hand Sakkari the set. Sakkari was now priced 1.14.

Stats for the set were decent for both

I favoured Sakkari to win but Tagger had kept things close in the first set. I wanted to lay Sakkari if she went a set and a break ahead.

Sakkari served first and held to 30. In the next game, Tagger was broken to 15. I laid Sakkari with some of the profit from set 1 at 1.05.

In the next game, Sakkari went 15-40 behind and I backed Sakkari at 1.11 using the same stake that I had used to lay her. This gave me a slightly better free bet on Sakkari. She recovered to hold. Tagger did not win a game in the second set.

Sakkari won 7-5, 6-0.

 

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WTA Indian Wells
Bouzkova v Townsend 1.92
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Bouzkova 2-0. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, 2 sets. 3 sets win on hard in 2016. Hard win %’s favour Townsend.

Bouzkova lost in the 1st round last year.
4th Round in Beijing 2025, Semi finals in Monterrey 2025, 3rd Round in Montreal 2025, Title in Prague 2025.

Townsend lost in the qual round last season. This year she has come through the qual rounds.
Final in Austin 2026, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, 3rd Round in Cincinnati 2025, Quarter finals in Washington 2025, 3rd Round in Miami 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 are stronger for Townsend on serve.
Lay Bouzkova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.00. Chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Townsend in 3 sets.

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Update. At the start of the match, Townsend was priced at 1.86.

Townsend served first. The first 3 games were holds. Bouzkova served at 1-2 and went 0-40 behind. I laid Townsend at 1.43. Bouzkova got back to deuce but faced another break point and was broken. Townsend’s price dropped 4 ticks lower than my entry price.

In the next game, Bouzkova went 30-40 behind. Townsend’s price only went to 1.48. I waited for the break. After the break her price went to 1.68. I removed liability and left the green on Townsend.

Bouzkova served at 2-3 and was broken to 0. Townsend then held to 30. She then broke Bouzkova for the 3rd time in a row to take the set.

Bouzkova’s stats were terrible for that set. I wasn’t convinced that she could compete in the second set.

Townsend’s price was 1.18 after the set.

Townsend served first in the second set. She held to 30. In the next game, she broke Bouzkova after Bouzkova had saved 2 break points.

I laid Townsend at 1.07. In a repeat of the first set, she was immediately broken straight back. I backed Townsend at 1.16 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This left me a larger free bet on Townsend. Bouzkova didn’t win another game.

The pattern of the breaks were very similar in both sets.

Townsend won 6-2, 6-1.