Daily match picks

This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
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Download link: Trading Tips 7th June

WTA London
Boulter 1.96 v Fernandez
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 6.5/10

Boulter 2-1. Most recent Nov 2024, Boulter in 2 sets. Fernandez won on hard in 2023, 2 sets. Boulter won on hard in 2018, 3 sets. Grass win %’s favour Boulter.

Boulter reacted the 2nd round last year.
She reached the 2nd round at Wimbledon 2025. Quarter finals in Nottingham 2025.

Fernandez lost in the 1st round last season.
Quarter finals in Nottingham 2025.

12 month stats favour Fernandez overall. 2026 stats on all surfaces favour Fernandez on serve.
Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Boulter around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Fernandez in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: The start was delayed by rain. Fernandez served first and held to 0
0-1

The next 2 games were easy holds.
1-1
1-2

Boulter was broken to 15. I placed a small lay of Fernandez at 1.50. I was concerned about further rain delays so held back some of my stake.
1-3

The next 5 games were holds with no break points. Fernandez took the set. She was priced at 1.35/1.36.
3-6

Even though there was only 1 break point in the set, There were signs that Boulter’s serve may be vulnerable in the next set. Her first serve percentage was on the low side at 53%. Fernandez had very strong serve stats, losing just 3 points on serve.

I decided to leave the small lay to run into the second set. Boulter served first. She faced a break point at 30-40 but recovered to hold.
1-0

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
1-1
2-1
2-2
3-2

Fernandez faced a break point at 40-A. I hedged for a small green at 1.69. This wasn’t the most exciting match ever!. Fernandez saved the break point and held.
3-3.

I would have exited if the score reached 4-4. However, the match was then suspended due to rain. They will resume on Tuesday.

Fernandez led 6-3, 3-3.

 

This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
Get the Trading Tips emailed to you 7 days a week.

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Download link: Trading Tips 4th June

WTA Makarska Challenger
Lazaro Garcia 1.79 v Semenistaja
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent Oct 2025, clay, Garcia in 3 sets. Semenistaja won on hard in 2025, 3 sets. Clay win %’s favour Garcia.

Garcia had a 2 sets win as underdog over Samson in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Waltert as underdog in the 2nd round
She won a CH title in March. CH semi in Oct. CH semi in Sep.

Semenistaja reached the q final last season. 2 sets win in the 2nd round.
2 CH q finals in April. Quarter final in Bogota 2026. CH final and semi in Sep. CH semi in July.

12 month stats are quite even with a slight edge to Semenistaja.
2026 CH stats are stronger for Garcia overall.
Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Semenistaja around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Lazaro Garcia in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Pre match, Garcia’s price moved from 1.79 to 1.63.

Semenistaja served first and held serve after being taken to deuce.
0-1

Garcia was broken to 0. I backed Garcia at 2.14.
0-2

Semenistaja went 0-40 behind. I removed some liability at 1.82. She saved 2 break point but was broken.
1-2

Garcia held to 15.
2-2

Semenistaja was broken after being taken to deuce twice. I hedged evenly at 1.34 on Garcia’s ladder.
3-2

Garcia was broken to 15.
3-3

Semenistaja was broken after saving 3 break points. I laid Garcia at 1.33.
4-3

Garcia faced a break point at 30-40. I could have hedged at 1.40. I chose to wait for the break. She recovered to hold.
5-3

Semenistaja held to 30.
5-4

Garcia served for the set and went 0-40 behind. I hedged at 1.47. She saved 2 break point but was broken.
5-5

The next 2 games were holds and they went into a tie break.
5-6
6-6

Semenistaja took the tie break 7-4
6-7

Their stats for the set were fairly even. Both broken 3 times. Garcia had the better first serve percentage but the lower points won on first serve percentage.
Semenistaja was priced 1.88/1.89 after the set.

Garcia served first in the second set. I wanted to lay Semenistaja but waited for Garcia to have her service game.

Garcia was broken to 30. I laid Semenistaja at 1.54.
0-1

Semenistaja was broken to 0. I stayed with the lay of Semenistaja.
1-1

Garcia held to 30. Semenistaja was then broken to 15. I hedged at 1.51 on Garcia’s ladder (2.96 on Semenistaja’s ladder).
2-1
3-1

Garcia was broken to 15.
3-2

The next 2 games were holds.
3-3
4-3

Semenistaja was broken to 30. Garcia served out the set to 30.
5-3
6-3

Both players dropped their level in the second set. Semenistaja had the weakest stats on serve.

Garcia ended the second set priced at 1.39/1.40.

Semenistaja served first. She held serve after being taken to deuce. Garcia held to 15.
0-1
1-1

Semenistaja was broken after saving 2 break points. I laid Garcia at 1.22 using a third of the profit gained in the opening 2 sets.
2-1

The next 32 games were holds.
3-1
3-2

Garcia faced a break point at 40-A. I hedged evenly at 1.34. She saved 3 break points and held serve.
4-2

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
4-3
5-3
5-4

Garcia was serving for the match and was priced 1.17/1.18. I used some of my profit to lay at 1.18.
She was broken to 15. I hedged at 1.76.
5-5

Semenistaja was broken to 0. I laid Garcia at 1.19.
6-5

Garcia was broken to 30! I hedged evenly at 1.73.
6-6

They went into a tie break. It was tight and Semenistaja won it 7-5.
6-7

Semenistaja won 7-6, 3-6, 7-6.