Daily match picks

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WTA Dubai
Svitolina v Gauff 1.79
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 2-2. Most recent Jan 2026, hard, Svitolina in 2. Gauff had a 3 sets win on hard in Aug 2024. Gauff won on hard in Jan 2024, 3 sets. Svitolina won on hard in Feb 2021, 2 sets. Hard win %’s are fairly even.

Svitolina reached the 2nd round last season. In the 2nd round, Badosa retired after losing set 1. 3 sets win over Bencic in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Ruzic in the q final.
Semi finals at the Australian Open 2026, Title in Auckland 2026, Quarter finals in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, Quarter finals in Indian Wells 2025.

Gauff lost in the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Kalinskaya in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Mertens in the 3rd round. Gauff lost just 2 games to Eala in the q final.
Quarter finals at the Australian Open 2026, Title in Wuhan 2025, Semi finals in Beijing 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, Quarter finals in Cincinnati 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Svitolina on serve. Very good chance of 3 sets.
Even against Eala, Gauff hit 8 d faults.
Lay Gauff around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Svitolina in 3 sets.

Update: Gauff served first. The first 3 games were holds with no break points.

Svitolina served at 1-2 and went 15-40 behind. I laid Gauff at 1.52. Svitolina was broken. In the next game, Gauff was broken to 30. I removed most of my liability at 1.72. The next 3 games were holds with no break chances.

Gauff served at 4-4. She saved 2 break points but could not save the third and was broken. Svitolina served for the set and held to 30. I removed the remaining liability at 1.38 on Svitolina’s ladder (3.60 on Gauff’s ladder).

Stats for the first set were a little better for Svitolina. Her first serve points won % was her weak stat at 57%. Gauff’s first serve % would need to improve in set 2.

Gauff served first in the second set. I stayed with my free bet on Svitolina and intended laying Svitolina after Gauff’s service game.

Gauff was broken to 0. I laid Svitolina at 1.20. It was risk free as I had the profit from the first set. Svitolina held to 30. Gauff served at 0-2. She had to save a break point but held serve.

In the next game, Svitolina was broken to 15. I backed Svitolina at 1.43 with the same stake I had used to lay her. This gave me a bigger free bet on Svitolina.

Gauff was broken again in the next game. I laid Svitolina at 1.21. She was broken in the next game and I hedged at 1.40. I didn’t trust either of them on serve at that point! The score was 3-3. The next 5 games were holds of serve with no break points. Svitolina served at 5-6 and had to save 2 break points/set points but did hold and they went into a tie break.

The tie break was crazy and I was happy to be hedged!

4 match points saved by Gauff! They went into a third set.

Gauff did improve her first serve % a little in the second set. There wasn’t too much between the 2 players if you ignore the 8 double faults for Gauff!

Svitolina served first in the deciding set. She had 2 game points but was eventually broken. As I had some profit to play with, I wanted to back Svitolina. I had favoured Svitolina pre match and in WTA 3rd sets on hard courts, the player breaking first gets broken back 48.73% of the time.

Betfair seemed to have an API problem and the prices weren’t updating. I could not place the back bet. Betfair suspended the market. By the time the market came back, Svitolina was leading 3-2. She had broken back immediately! Thanks Betfair.

It was a tight 3rd set and there were no breaks until Gauff served at 4-5. She was broken after saving another match point and Svitolina took the match.

Svitolina won 6-4, 6-7, 6-4.

 

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WTA Dubai
Cirstea 1.45 v Eala
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Cirstea 1-0 (Apr 2024, clay, 3 sets). Hard win %’s are better for Cirstea.

Cirstea reached the Quarter final last year. 2 sets win over Sasnovich in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Noskova in the 2nd round.
3rd Round in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Hong Kong 2025, Semi finals in Osaka 2025, Title in Cleveland 2025, 4th Round in Cincinnati 2025, Quarter finals in Austin 2025, Quarter finals in Dubai 2025.

Eala came through the 1st round when Baptiste retired in set 2. 2 sets win over Paolini as underdog in the 2nd round.
She reached the Quarter finals in Abu Dhabi 2026, Semi finals in Auckland 2026, Quarter finals in Sao Paulo 2025, Semi finals in Miami 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Cirstea on serve.
Back Cirstea around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Cirstea in 2 sets.

Update: Cirstea served first and held to 30. Eala also held to 30 in her first service game.

In the next game, Cirstea saved 2 break points but faced a third and was broken. Her price only went up to 1.67. That was around 15 ticks lower than it should have been. I was favouring Cirstea to win so I did back her after the break but kept the stake small.

In the next game, Eala was broken. I removed the liability at 1.43, leaving the green on Cirstea.

The next 6 games were all holds of serve. There was only 1 break point in those games which was against Cirstea. In the next game, Cirstea was broken to 30. Eala now led 6-5 and would serve for the set. As she had not faced a break point in her last 3 games, I waited for set 2.

Eala successfully served out the set. Stats for the set were better for Eala overall. Cirstea had a low first serve % at 52%. Points won on first serve were fairly even. 73% for Cirstea and 71% for Eala.

Eala’s price after the set was 1.84 (2.16 on Cirstea’s ladder).

Cirstea served first in set 2. I already had the small free bet on her from the first set. I waited for her to have her service game. She was broken to 30. I laid Eala at 1.45.

In the next game, Eala held to 15. In the next game, Cirstea went 15-40 behind. I hedged for the loss at 1.15.

Eala then held to 0 for a 4-0 lead. Cirstea held to 15. Eala served at 4-1. It was a long game in which she had to save 2 break points. She recovered to hold. Her price at 5-1 was 1.02.

Cirstea held serve to 30. Eala could be laid at 1.04. She had faced 2 break points in her last service game so I thought there was a chance that she would have a “wobble” when serving for the match. I laid at 1.04 for £500.

Eala was broken to 30 in the next game. Her price went to 1.11. I gave Cirstea the chance to hold. She did hold to 30. I hedged at 1.16.

That removed my most of my red.

Eala easily served out the match to 0.

Eala won 7-5, 6-4.