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Download link: Trading Tips 8th July

WTA Contrexeville, Challenger
Jones 1.95 v Jeanjean
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Jones 1-0 (March 2025, clay, 3 sets). 12 month clay win %’s favour Jones.

Jones won the title last year. 2 sets win in the 1st round.
2nd round of the French Open 2026. CH q final in May. CH title in July.

Jeanjean lost in the 1st round last season. This week, she had a 2 sets win as strong favourite in the 1st round.
2nd round in Rome 2026 as qualifier. 2nd round in Madrid 2026 as qualifier. CH semi in Dec. CH final in Nov.

12 month CH stats favour Jones overall.
Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Jeanjean around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Jones in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: When the match started, Jeanjean was price at 1.90.
Jones served first and held to 0.
1-0

Jeanjean saved a break point at 30-40 but faced another and was broken. I placed a small lay of Jones at 1.53.
2-0

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
3-0
3-1
4-1

Jones was priced at 1.39/1.40. Another break now would mean the set was almost over. I decided to hedge for the loss and wait for set 2. I hedged at 1.39.
Jeanjean was broken again, this time to 30.
5-1

Jones served for the set. She went 15-40 behind but recovered to hold.
6-1

Jones was priced at 1.27/1.28
Stats for the set slightly favoured Jones for first serve percentage and first serve points won. Jeanjean was terrible on second serve, winning 1 of 8 points.

Jeanjean served first in set 2. I waited for her to have her service game before thinking about laying Jones. Jeanjean went 15-40 behind. She saved the break points and held serve. That didn’t fill me with confidence, especially as I favoured Jones to win in the pre match assessment.
0-1

Jones held to 15.
1-1

Jeanjean again went 15-40 behind. She saved one of the break points but was broken. Jones was now a set and a break ahead. A much better value chance to lay her. I laid Jones at 1.13.
2-1

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
3-1
3-2
4-2
4-3

Jones was broken to 30. I removed most of the liability at 1.29, leaving the green on Jeanjean.
4-4

Jeanjean held to 0
4-5
Jones went 0-40 behind. I hedged at 2.02 on Jones’ ladder. She saved 2 of the break points but was broken to give the set to Jeanjean.
4-6

After the set, they were back to start prices. Jeanjean was 1.89/1.90.

Stats for that set were quite even. Jeanjean had the better 1st serve percentage.

Jeanjean served first in set 3. She was broken to 0. Jones was priced at 1.45/1.46. I would have wanted a better price to lay my favoured player in the 3rd set.
1-0

Jones held to 15.
2-0

Jeanjean faced a break points at 30-40. I laid Jones at 1.26 using some of the profit. Jeanjean saved 2 break points and eventually held.
2-1

Jones held to 15.
3-1

Jeanjean went 15-40 behind. She saved one of the break points but was broken. I left my position as it was. A small green on Jones and a larger green on Jeanjean. I wished that I had stayed away from the third set!
4-1

Jones was broken to 15! Jones was priced at 1.20/1.21.
4-2

The next 3 games were holds of serve with no break points.
4-3
5-3
5-4

Jones served for the match at 5-4. She was broken to 15! I hedged at 2.02 on Jones’ ladder.
5-5

Jeanjean held to 30.
5-6

Jones was broken to 15.
5-7

Jeanjean won 1-6, 6-4, 7-5.

 

Predictions:

WTA Wimbledon Semi Finals

Muchova to beat Gauff in 3 sets

Kostyuk to beat Noskova in 3 sets