Daily match picks

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WTA Doha
Sakkari v Muchova 1.44
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Muchova 4-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Muchova in 3. She won their last 4 matches. Her other wins were all on clay in 2023, 2022 and 2021. Sakkari won on hard in 2016, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Muchova.

Sakkari reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over a poor Paolini in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Gracheva in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Swiatek in the q final.
3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Quarter finals in Washington 2025.

Muchova had an easy win over Cristian in the 1st round. Easy win over Valentova in the 2nd round. Her opponent, Pliskova, retired in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Kalinskaya in the q final.
She reached the 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Semi finals in Dubai 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Muchova on serve.
Back Muchova around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Muchova in 3 sets.

Update: Sakkari served first and held to 0. Muchova held to 30. In the next game, Sakkari saved 2 break points but was broken on the third one. Muchova’s price dropped to 1.25. As I expected a close match, I laid Muchova at 1.25.

In the next game, Muchova went 0-40 behind. I removed half my liability at 1.40. She saved the 3 break points but faced another one. This time, Sakkari took the break point.

The next 2 games were holds. Sakkari served at 3-3 and went 15-40 behind. I removed the rest of my liability at 1.27 to leave a free bet on Muchova. Sakkari saved 4 break points in that game and held serve. In the next game, Muchova was broken to 0. Sakkari then held to 0 to take the set.

Stats for the set favoured Sakkari. Excellent first serve percentage of 73%. Points won on first serve were on the low side at 59% and second serve points won were well above average at 67%. Muchova also had a first serve percentage of 73% but she won just 50% of first serve points and 50% of second serve points.

I already had the free bet on Muchova. I try to stay with my pre match assessment of a match as much as possible so was hoping Muchova would improve in this set.

Muchova served first in set 2 so I waited for her to have her service game. She was broken to 30. I added to my position by laying Sakkari at 1.35.

In the next game, Sakkari had an easy hold to 15. Muchova then held to 30. Sakkari served at 2-1. She went 0-40 behind. I removed my liability at 1.63 to leave a bigger free bet on Muchova. Sakkari saved one of the break points but was broken on the next one.

Muchova had a hold to 30 in the next game. Sakkari was broken again in the next game. Muchova held to 30 to lead 5-2. I hedged evenly at 1.51 on Muchova’s ladder (2.98 on Sakkari’s ladder).

Muchova served for the set and was broken to 15. Sakkari was broken in the next game to 15 which gave the set to Muchova.

That was the last trade I made on the match. Muchova easily took the third set 6-1.

Muchova won 3-6, 6-4, 6-1.

 

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ATP Buenos Aires
Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1.59 v Martinez Portero
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Martinez 1-0 (Feb 2020, clay, 2 sets). Clay win 5’s favour Cerundolo.

Cerundolo reached the 2nd round as qualifier last season. easy win over Altmaier in the 1st round.
Final in Gstaad 2025, 3rd Round in Madrid 2025.

Martinez reached the Semi final last season. Easy win in the 1st round.
2nd rounds in Rome, Barcelona and Q final in Bucharest 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 are stronger for Cerundolo.
Back Cerundolo around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Cerundolo in 2 sets.

Update: Cerundolo served first. The first 2 games were holds to 15. In the next game, Cerundolo was broken. His price hit 2.02 and I backed him.

The next game was very similar for Martinez. He was 40-15 up but was broken. I removed most of my liability at 1.60.

The next 3 games were holds. Martinez served at 3-4. He faced a break point. I hedged evenly at 1.30. Martinez recovered to hold.

After 2 more holds, Cerundolo served at 5-5. He saved a break point but faced another which Martinez converted. I placed a small back on Cerundolo at 2.24. In the next game, Martinez was serving for the set. He went 0-40 behind and I hedged at 1.62. He was broken and the set went to a tie break.
Cerundolo led 5-3 in the tie break but lost the next 4 points to lose the set.

Cerundolo had not served well in that set. His first serve % was good at 74% but he won just 56% of points on the first serve. Martinez also found 74% of first serves but had won 69% of points on it. His second serve was poor at 25% of points won (3 from 12) but as his first serve % was good, he got away with a below par second serve.
I had some profit from the first set and I used some of it to lay Martinez at 1.63 at the start of the second set. I needed to see a real improvement in Cerundolo’s game but at least my position was risk free.

The first 5 games were holds of serve with no break points. Cerundolo served at 2-3. He went 15-40 behind. Martinez’ price went down to 1.20. If i had exited at that point, my profit was virtually nothing so I stayed with it. Cerundolo was broken. Martinez held to 30 and led 5-2.

In the next game, Cerundolo had an easy hold. In the next game, Martinez went 0-40 behind when serving for the set/match. After he was broken, his price was at 1.39. I could have hedged and saved most of the profit from the first set but as I had favoured Cerundolo pre match and felt he had some momentum, I stayed in.
Cerundolo served at 4-5 and was broken! Ah well. Tiny profit. At least it wasn’t a red.

Martinez won 7-6, 6-4.