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Download link: Trading Tips 1st August

WTA Toronto
Sramkova 1.85 v Blinkova
Due to start at 8:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Blinkova 1-0 (Jan 2022, indoors, 2 sets). Hard win %’s favour Sramkova.

Sramkova lost in the 2nd round last year. This year she has come through the qual round.
Quarter finals in Osaka 2025, Quarter finals in Monterrey 2025.

Blinkova reached the 2nd round last season.
2nd round in Miami 2026. 2nd round in Indian Wells 2026. Title in Jiujiang 2025.

12 month stats and 2026 stats favour Sramkova overall.
Lay Blinkova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match Prediction: Sramkova in 3 sets.

Update: I was stuck in another match so could not trade this one. I will apply my trading rules to this match to show what I would have done.

Sramkova served first. She had to save a break point but recovered to hold.
1-0

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.
1-1
2-1

Blinkova went 15-40 behind. I would have laid Sramkova at break point. Blinkova saved 2 break points but faced another and was broken.
3-1

Sramkova was broken to 0. I would have removed liability, leaving the profit on Sramkova.
3-2

Blinkova was broken again.
4-2

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
5-2
5-3
6-3

Stats for the set weren’t great for Sramkova. First serve percentage was 54%. Points won on first serve was 47%. What saved her was the fact that her second serve points won percentage was 69%. Blinkova had a similar first serve percentage of 55%. Unfortunately for her, she was winning just 31% of points on her second serve.

Blinkova served first in the second set. I would still have had the free bet on Sramkova. I would have waited for Sramkova to go a set and a break up so I could lay her at a much better price.

Blinkova saved a break point but held.
0-1

Sramkova held to 30.
1-1

Blinkova was broken to 15. I’d have laid Sramkova. The position would be risk free because of the free bet.
2-1

The next 2 games were holds with no break points.
3-1
3-2

Sramkova was broken to 15. I’d have backed Sramkova with the same stake used for the lay. This would give me a bigger free bet on Sramkova.
3-3

Blinkova was broken to 30.
4-3

Sramkova held to love. Blinkova was broken after saving a break point.
5-3
6-3

Sramkova won 6-3, 6-3.