Daily match picks

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
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WTA Madrid
Baptiste v Paolini 1.71
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. most recent May 2024, clay, Paolini in 2. Baptiste won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Paolini.

Baptiste reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win in the 2nd round.
4th Round at the French Open 2025, 3rd Round in Rome 2025.

Paolini reached the 3rd round last season. 3 sets win over Siegemund in the 2nd round.
4th Round at the French Open 2025, Title in Rome 2025.

12 month stats favour Baptiste on serve. 2026 stats also favour her ono serve.
Lay Paolini around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.80. Good chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Baptiste in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Baptiste served first and was broken to 15. I laid Paolini at 1.44.
0-1

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
0-2
1-2
1-3
2-3

Paolini served next. She faced a break point at 40-A. Her price went to 1.57. I could have removed some liability but chose to wait for the break. She saved the break point but faced another break point and this time she was broken. I removed most of the liability at 1.76. I left the green on Baptiste.
3-3

In the next game, Baptiste faced 4 break points but recovered to hold.
4-3

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
4-4
5-4
5-5
6-5

Paolini served at 5-6 and was broken to 30. I hedged at 1.40 on Baptiste’s ladder (3.40 on Paolini’s ladder).
7-5

Stats for the set were arguably better for Paolini. She had the better first serve percentage at 72%. She only won 55% of first serve points but was above the tour average on second serves won at 58%.

Baptiste had a lower first serve percentage at 57% and was only winning 39% of second serve points. That isn’t a great combination.

Baptiste served first in the second set. I laid her at 1.41. She held to 0.
1-0

In the next game, Paolini saved 2 break points and held.
1-1

Baptiste served next and went 15-40 behind. I backed Baptiste at 1.53 using the same stake that I had used for the lay. This gave me green on Paolini and a bigger green on Baptiste. Baptiste saved 4 break points in that game and held.
2-1

The next 2 games were holds.
2-2
3-2

Paolini served next. She faced a break point but saved it. She saved another break point but faced a 3rd and was broken.
4-2

The next 3 games were holds.
5-2
5-3
6-3.

Baptiste won 7-5, 6-3.

 

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WTA Madrid
Kalinina 1.55 v Rakhimova
Due to start at 2 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Kalinina 1-0 (May 2021, clay, 2 sets). Clay win %’s favour Kalinina.

Kalinina has come through the qual rounds.
2nd round in Linz. 2 CH titles and 2 finals in March. 2nd round of the French Open 2025.

Rakhimova lost in the qual round last season.
2nd round in Rouen 2026 and 2nd round in Rabat 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Kalinina on serve.
Back Kalinina around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Kalinina in 2 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Rakhimova served first and was broken to 15. I laid Kalinina at 1.32. In the next game, Kalinina was broken to 0 and I removed liability at 1.59, leaving a free bet on Kalinina.

The next 2 games were holds. Rakhimova served at 2-2 and was broken in a long game in which she saved 1 break point and there were 4 deuces. I left the free bet to run. Kalinina went to to take the next 3 games to win the set 6-3.

Stats for the set were better for Kalinina. Rakhimova had a low first serve percentage and won just 3 of her 17 second serve points.

I needed to see some improvement for Rakhimova if I was going to consider laying Kalinina.

Kalinina was priced at 1.11 after the first set. Rakhimova served first in the second set and was broken to 0. Kalinina then held to 0. The next 2 games were also holds.

Rakhimova served at 1-3. She saved 3 break points but was eventually broken.

Kalinina was now a set and a double break ahead. I hedged at 1.01. I then laid Kalinina at 1.01. It was a speculative lay and was as cheap a lay as you can get! I didn’t expect a recovery.

In the next game, Kalinina was broken to 0. I could have exited at 1.03. There was no point in doing that.

In the next game, Rakhimova had to save a break point but she held. Kalinina served at 4-3. She faced a break point. I could have exited at 1.09. I waited. She saved 3 break points in that game but held. Rakhimova then held to 30.

Kalinina would serve for the match at 5-4. She was broken to 0! I could exit at 1.17. I was tempted to let it run but hedged. I had pushed my luck enough! It is very common when a player has been behind for the whole set and gets back to 5-5, they then immediately get broken.

Rakhimova served at 5-5 and held to 30. Kalinina’s price moved to 1.30. She then broke Kalinina to take the set! Kalinina’s price moved to 1.58. HUGE opportunity missed by me!

After the way the second set ended, I really didn’t trust either of the players. Also, to be honest, I was more than a little irritated with myself for not staying longer in that last set! I stayed away from the deciding set.

Kalinina could easily have crumbled but she took the deciding set with a double break.

Kalinina won 6-2, 5-7, 6-2.