suarez navarro

13th February 2015

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WTA BNP Paribas Fortis Diamond Games, 13:00 – Pliskova v Safarova

Safarova usually starts the season well but she hasn’t done this year. yesterday’s win over Mladenovic was her first victory in 2015. She served exceptionally well losing just 2 points on her first serve and winning 69% of points on her second.

Pliskova as expected has served well in her two matches this week. She was still broken 3 times by Beck in the  last round though. Several of the women were in action at the weekend in Fed Cup matches so be careful of Pliskova running out of steam.

This is their first meeting on a hard court. Safarova starts at 1.66 but we could easily see that trading higher in the first set. Pliskova won’t want 3 sets today so is likely to come out swinging in the first few games.

Tough one to call pre match as it depends a lot on Pliskova’s energy levels but Safarova winning in 3 looks a possibility.

 

 

WTA BNP Paribas Fortis Diamond Games, 14:30 – Suarez Navarro v Schiavone

This is the third time these two have met. Each match has been a quarter final but this is the first one away from the clay. They have one win each.

Schiavone made a poor start to 2014 but she is on fire at the start of this season. She already has 5 wins at this tournament as she had to come through the qualifying rounds. She beat the promising Dodin in the qualies and Koukalova and Kerber in the main draw. I thought she would do well against Kerber but wasn’t expecting 6-1, 6-1!

Carla struggled in her last match with Niculescu. Despite have won both their previous meetings she seemed confused by Niculescu’s slice and couldn’t find any consistency. However after the first set Niculescu received treatment for her back and wasn’t able to serve as she had been.  Niculescu won just 2 more games in the next 2 sets.

Suarez Navarro starts at 1.65 but I don’t think she will have an easy day at the office. She has started slowly in both her matches this week and that is nothing new to her. When Schiavone is confident she can be a formidable presence and if Carla is a little unsure of herself she could feel intimidated.

It should be a close one. Three sets would be no surprise but I have to favour Schiavone.

 

 

 

ATP Memphis Open, 19:00 – Young v Tomic

Both had good wins in the last round. Tomic came from a break down in the second set to beat Dolgopolov in straights. Young beat fellow American Kudla also in straight sets.

Young will have the crowd behind him but it hasn’t helped him much in previous years. His record in Memphis is poor.

The stats for the last 6 months favour Young in every category except service holds.

Tomic starts at 1.62 which too low but if he can maintain his current level of play he should take this. 1.85 is a fairer price on him.

 

 

 

 

12th February 2015

My advised lay of Dimitrov almost worked out as planned. Muller took the opening set and they went to a tie break in set 2. Dimitrov had a set point on his own serve but couldn’t take it. Plenty of chances to get out with profit though.

Garcia Lopez looked like he was going out against Istomin. The Spaniard took the opening set in a tie break and went 2-0 up in the second. However he then lost the next 4 games and the match was suspended just before Istomin went 4-2 up. There was no video for this match but Istomin traded below 1.10 during the delay. When they resumed Garcia Lopez rattled off 4 straight games to take the match! I had another quick search this morning for info on what happened but haven’t found anything.

 

 

 

 ATP ABN AMRO World Tennis, 10:00 – Chardy v Simon

Simon leads the head to heads 2-0 but both matches had tight sets.

He has played some decent tennis in 2015 but will always be unpredictable.

Chardy hasn’t really hit his stride in 2015. Like Simon there have been glimpses of good tennis but not much consistency. He hasn’t won back to back matches since October.

Simon starts at 1.64 which isn’t a terrible price but I want a bit higher before backing him. Three sets wouldn’t surprise me at all.

 

 

WTA BNP Paribas Fortis Diamond Games, 14:00 – Suarez Navarro v Niculescu

Suarez Navarro has won both their previous meetings. Niculescu retired in the third set of their last match which was a year ago.

Before her win over Flipkens yesterday Niculescu had lost 5 in a row. She has suffered with a wrist injury.

Suarez Navarro came back from  set down against Giorgi in the first round to control sets 2 and 3.  She made a good start to the season with 2 quarter final finishes. She will have been disappointed to go out in the first round in Melbourne.

I am favouring Suarez Navarro to take this one. She starts at 1.60 which is a little low and she can start slowly. Anything over 1.75 looks good.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

29th October 2014

ATP Paris Masters, 13:30 –  Querrey v Lopez

Lopez leads the head to heads 5-2 and has won both their matches in 2014.

Querrey pulled out of his doubles match giving an elbow injury as the problem. Querrey starts at 1.68 today.

Since he reached the semi finals in Shanghai Lopez hasn’t looked too interested in his matches. He has had a great season and is perhaps looking to the end of the season.

Querrey looks to be the more motivated and has come through two qualifying rounds before beating Janowicz in 3 sets in round one. Since he reached the third round at the US Open he hasn’t lost a match. He has won 3 consecutive Challenger titles.

I think Querrey’s withdrawal from the doubles was probably just precautionary step and as long as that is the case I’d expect him to win this one.

 

 

 

WTA Tournament of Champions, 15:45 – Petkovic v Pironkova

They have only played once before but that was 7 years ago. For the record Pironkova won in straight sets.

Petkovic started badly in her first match. She was handed a bagel by Suarez Navarro and was broken in the first game of set 2. She woke up a little after that and broke back. She kept the set close but couldn’t get the breakthrough.

Pironkova was up against Cibulkova in her first match. She was broken at the start of the match but fought back. She has break points to go a break ahead but when she failed to take them Cibulkova stepped up with 3 straight games to take the set. Pironkova broke serve at the start of the second set. Cibulkova broke straight back but was then broken yet again. Pironkova had a double break  lead in the set but was unable to take it and Cibulkova won in a tie break.

We saw last week that players’ form can vary greatly from one match to the next in a Round Robin format but if these two play like they did yesterday we should see a lot of price swings.

I think Pironkova will get her nose in front but after that second set against Cibulkova I wouldn’t have much confidence in her ability to close the match out.

I am favouring Petkovic to stagger over the finish line in this one. Hopefully whatever her problem was in her first set yesterday it has been worked on and sorted. She is the stronger hard court player.

 

 

 

WTA Tournament of Champions,  19:45 – Cibulkova v Suarez Navarro

Both players had a win in their first matches yesterday and will put themselves in a very strong position to reach the semi finals with another win today.

Their only previous meeting came in January at the Australian Open. Cibulkova won 6-1, 6-0 but it is highly unlikely that we see a repeat of that scoreline this evening. Cibulkova has had injury problems in recent months whereas Suarez Navarro has been very consistent on the hard courts.

If Cibulkova has gained some confidence not only in her game but in her foot injury from yesterday’s win then she can make life very difficult for Carla who starts the match at 1.70 .

Pre match I have to favour Suarez Navarro. Her serve will be a lot more consistent that Pironkova’s was so Cibulkova will have to work a lot harder to get the break back if she falls behind. I would prefer to back Carla at a price nearer evens.