Federer has won 9 of their 12 previous meetings. They last met at Wimbledon last season in the semi finals. Raonic won that day in 5 sets. Raonic has won their last 2 matches. He won in straight sets in Brisbane in January 2016.
Raonic played 5 sets against Zverev in the last round. He only lost a set in one other
round which was to Youzhny in round 2. he reached the final last year so has plenty to play for. His body can often let him down and I expect that 5 setter in the last round to have taken a lot out of him.
Federer has not lost a set so far. Dimitrov in the last round might have been expected to at least take a set from him but he only took 1 of the 3 break chances he had on Federer’s serve. Federer has managed his tournaments really well this year and is clearly trying to be in top shape for the big tournaments. He won the Australian Open in January.
I think Raonic’s serve can get him a tie break set today but I don’t see him winning more than 1 set.
Back Federer if he loses set 1. He starts the match priced around 1.25.