ATP German Pro Series Exhibition, 24th July 2020

Just 10 days until we get proper tennis!

This one’s an exhibition so use REDUCED STAKES.

Marterer (2) v Stebe (1.78)

Due to start at 11:30 am

Stebe leads their previous meetings 2-1. They last met earlier this week. Stebe won comfortably in 2 sets. He has won both their clay matches. Marterer won on a hard court at the Australian Open in 2018.

Their win percentages on all surfaces in the last 12 months are very even. Stebe has played a lot more matches.

Longer term clay results favour Stebe but they are evenly matches in 2020 with each player winning over 70% of their matches.

Marterer has played 15 matches during the pandemic. He won 11 of those but his only decent win was over Yannik Hanfmann earlier this week.

Stebe has played 14 clay matches during the lockdown. He has won 10 of them. He has also played a lot of low ranked opponents but does have 2 wins over Daniel Masur, a win over Yannick Maden and this week’s win over Marterer.

This should be competitive but I have to favour Stebe. Back him around 2.20 but if he gets a very early break, lay him and remove liability if Marterer breaks back.

Update: Stebe broke Marterer’s serve in the first game of the match. Marterer eventually broke back for 4-4 and then broke again to take the set. In set 2 Stebe broke in the first game and raced to a 5-1 lead. He served for the set at 5-2 but was injured and was forced to retire.
Marterer won 6-4, 2-5(ret). Note that when Stebe was a double break up in the second set that was the time to either remove liability or to hedge as his price would not have dropped much further in the set.

Hanfmann (1.62) v Otte (2.26)

Due to start at 1 pm

Hanfmann leads their previous matches 2-1. Both their clay matches were during Covid. Otte won their match this week in 3 sets. Hanfmann had beaten him quite easily 2 weeks ago.

Overall results are a lot stronger for Hanfmann in the last 12 months and also in 2020. He has won 40 of his 52 matches (77%) this season. Otte has won 11 of 18 (61%).

Their win percentages on clay are quite similar but Hanfmann has played significantly more matches this season. He has played 37 clay matches compared to Otte’s 13 matches. Hanfmann has won 31 of those matches (84%) in 2020.

Otte has won all 3 of his matches this week as underdog. We have some value on him today and I think we will see 3 sets.

Lay Hanfmann if he gets the first break of serve and remove liability when Otte breaks back. Otte has lifted his level this week but I expect Hanfmann to want some revenge. Back Hanfmann around 2.20 to 2.30. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: Otte was broken in the first game of the match but he immediately broke back. He took a 5-2 lead and served for the set at 5-3 but was broken. Hanfmann took the set 7-5. In the second set Hanfmann broke for a 2- lead and Otte retired.
Hanfmann won 7-5, 2-1(ret)

 
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TradeShark Diary, 23rd July 2020

How long until the tennis starts up again? Just 11 sleeps!

I had a couple of emails yesterday saying that the dog insurance is up for renewal next month. As the dogs get older the insurance goes up. That makes sense as they are more likely to get ill later in life. Molly is 8 and Charlie is 7. They are not exactly ancient. I had intended that when they came up for renewal I was going to switch to “Bought by Many” insurance. Apparently their premiums don’t rise each year. Sounds good doesn’t it? In the last year I have paid £18 per month for Molly and £15 for Charlie. As a Trailhound Molly is classed as a pedigree breed. Charlie is a Collie cross and so is a bit cheaper.

Diary

Molly’s monthly renewal figure is set to go DOWN to £15. Thats the good news. The bad news is that because she is now over 8 years old I would have to pay 20% of the vet bill on top of the £100 excess. I had a look on the “Bought by Many” site and entered their details for a quote. Common sense tells you that if they don’t increase the premium each year that it isn’t going to be the cheapest. What I wasn’t expecting was to get a quote for both dogs of £139. Per month! I don’t pay that much for my car loan and insurance! I have never claimed on either dog’s insurance. Next year Charlie will be over 8 so his monthly amount will come down but I’ll have 20% of the bill to pay. I’ll stick with the current insurance company for now.

From tomorrow we have to wear masks in shops. Masks have been recommended for use in small shops where social distancing isn’t possible but from tomorrow it is a legal requirement in all shops. You can be fined £100 if you don’t wear one. Apparently the police and Tesco have both said that they won’t enforce the wearing of face coverings. As I have said in a previous post I have not worn a mask so far but have no problem wearing one. I just don’t think they are necessary in the large stores. If it makes someone else feel more comfortable to be out in public then I don’t mind.

I went shopping in Tesco yesterday. Very few masks were being worn. A lot of people still seem to be quite nervous about being around others. There are a lot of people on Twitter saying they won’t wear a “muzzle”. I forgot a couple of items yesterday so I will be going down there tomorrow. It will be interesting.

The local hospital is under the spotlight a little. I’m not sure if it is 3 or 4 members of staff that have committed suicide at work recently. The hospital management are pretty poor and don’t support their staff very well at all. Lots more staff are working their notice. I have been surprised over the 8 or 9 years that Sue has worked there how badly the place is run. The amount of money that is wasted by the NHS is staggering.

Not many matches of interest in the exhibitions today. It’s a pity that a lot of the better WTA players are taking part in events with wacky rule changes. No thank you.

I’ll make the most of the quiet days before the fun starts on the 3rd.

Stay safe.

 
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