Yesterday’s matches were pretty disappointing. All 4 matches had the potential to be tight but all ended in 2 sets. That is always a possibility with exhibitions. Which is why I always say……

Exhibitions = REDUCED STAKES!

Next week looks promising for more of the top players being involved in the matches including WTA players.

Bautista Agut (1.34) v Novak (3.55)

Due to start at 12:00

This will be their first meeting.

Bautista Agut’s win percentages in the last 12 months and in 2020 are a little better. The gap is a little bigger when you take into account the fact that Novak’s best results were mainly in Challengers. Bautista Agut’s clay results are also a little stronger.

Bautista Agut was a little disappointing in his match with Berrettini. To be fair to him Berrettini played an excellent match. Bautista Agut hit 7 double faults. He only faced 4 break points but was broken 3 times.

Novak has served extremely well this week. He was also broken 3 times by Berrettini. Yesterday in his match with Khachanov he faced 4 break points and saved all of them. He won that match in straight sets as underdog.

Will Bautista Agut be vulnerable on serve again today? Even though Berrettini played well yesterday those 7 double faults from Bautista Agut were all his own fault. You could argue that Berrettini putting him under pressure brought about the errors. I have always thought that Bautista Agut’s apparent strategy of taking care of his own serve and really going for a single break of his opponent’s serve is risky. It is easy to get caught out and end up losing the set.

Let’s try a small lay on Bautista Agut around 1.25 and remove the liability at 1.50. Back him if he loses set 1.

Rublev (1.42) v Ruud (3.2)

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Rublev won their only previous meeting in July last year on clay. He won in 3 sets after Ruud took the opening set.

Much better overall results for Rublev in the last 12 months. His clay results are also a little better although Ruud has had some excellent results in Challenger tournaments.

Rublev came through a tight first match with Jan-Lennard Struff on Tuesday. He saved 2 match points in the deciding tie break. I had said that he would need to improve his serve against Dominic Thiem and he did. It wasn’t enough to beat Thiem and in fact wasn’t enough to take a set from him but obviously he was up against a strong opponent.

Ruud served well in the first part of his match with Struff but by the end he had been broken 5 times. He needs Rublev to have a poor day if he is to win this one.

Rublev has been broken first in both his matches this week and we need the same again. Back Rublev if he gets broken first or loses set 1.

Thiem (1.27) v Struff (4.3)

Due to start at 3 pm

Thiem leads their previous meetings 3-1. He won their last 3 matches. Their most recent match was on an indoor court in St Petersburg in September 2018. Thiem won in 2 sets. He won their only clay match in Monte Carlo in April 2016. Struff took the opening set. Struff’s only win was on a hard court in Auckland in January 2015. Thiem took the opening set in a tie break.

Thiem’s overall results in the last 12 months are much stronger and he is ranked second in the world on clay.

Thiem has served well this week but his return game is not quite at its best. Both his matches had close sets.

Struff’s serve has been pretty effective this week. He had 2 match points in his match with Rublev. Yesterday he started a little slowly against Ruud but got stronger as the match went on.

Struff’s best chance of taking a set is probably a tie break. We could try a lay of Thiem around 1.15 and remove liability at 1.30 or we can wait for Thiem to lose set 1 before backing him.

Berrettini (1.34) v Khachanov (3.75)

Due to start at 7:15 pm

Berrettini has won all 3 of their previous matches. All their matches were in 2019. Two were on grass and one was indoors.

Berrettini has better overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2020. His clay results are significantly stronger.

Khachanov has lost both his matches this week. He was particularly poor against Dennis Novak yesterday.

Berrettini has won both his matches. He was too consistent for Bautista Agut yesterday. He has not lost a set so far.

Ideally we want Berrettini to get broken first but we probably have more chance of him only facing a break point. Back him with part stake if he faces a break point and add the rest after he gets broken.

 

There were some decent matches yesterday. Let’s see if we get more of the same today.

Hopefully we’ll get some decent players in the WTA Exhibitions soon.

EXHIBITION MATCHES = REDUCED STAKES!

Berrettini (2.44) v Bautista Agut (1.68)

Due to start at 12:00

Berrettini leads their previous matches 3-1. He won their last 2 meetings which included a win on clay in Munich in April 2019. He won in straight sets. He also won their only other clay match in the Gstaad final in July 2018. Bautista Agut’s win was on a hard court in Doha in January 2019.

Overall results in the last 12 months favour Bautista Agut. He has also been better in 2020 with 12 wins from 15 matches. Berrettini has won 8 from 13.

They both have good records on clay and have both won 7 of their last 10 on this surface.

Berrettini had not played on clay since the French Open in May last year. He could have been forgiven for taking a little time to adjust to playing on clay when all his matches during Covid-19 have been on hard courts. His match with Dennis Novak was very tight. Berrettini took the first break of serve but wasn’t able to hold on to the lead. He took the set in a tie break. An early break at the start of the second set was enough to give him the match.

Bautista Agut had lost both his previous clay matches against Khachanov. In their match yesterday a single break in each set was enough for him to change that trend. He has won all 3 of his clay matches during the lockdown and has won them in straight sets.

We can expect very tight sets today and a third set is likely.

We have some value on Berrettini as underdog. However I am giving Bautista Agut a slight edge to win. Lay Bautista Agut around 1.50 and remove some liability around 1.90. Back him around 2.20. Lay the set 1 winner.

Khachanov (1.42) v Novak (2.98)

Due to start at 1:30 pm

Khachanov won both their previous matches. The most recent was in Dubai in February. He won in straight sets on a hard court. The other was indoors in 2018, also in straight sets.

Overall results in the last 12 months are stronger for Novak. His best results were mainly in Challenger tournaments. He has played a lot more matches on clay in the last year.

Khachanov’s last match on clay before this week was a quarter final at the French Open in May 2019. In his first match of this exhibition he lost in straight sets to Bautista Agut.

Both players performed well in their last matches. I don’t expect many breaks of serve. Khachanov really should take the match but there might be a few price swings. I would rather wait for a better price on Khachanov. However if he hits 1.25 in the early games it is worth a small lay on him and remove liability around 1.50. I would take 1.80 on Khachanov.

Struff (1.73) v Ruud (2.24)

Due to start at 3 pm

Struff has won both their previous matches. They last met at the US Open in August last year on a hard court. He won in straight sets. Their other match was on clay in Monte Carlo in April 2017. He also won that match in 2 sets.

Ruud’s win percentages are a little better in the last 12 months and also in 2020. His clay results have also been stronger.

Ruud’s match against Thiem yesterday was his first during the pandemic. He played well and was only broken once in the first set. In set 2 he took the first break of serve but wasn’t able to hold on to the lead. Thiem took the set in a tie break.

Struff played an excellent match against Rublev yesterday. He took the opening set and only a later break for Rublev took them into the tie break third set. Struff had 2 match points but Rublev saved them and took the match. Struff was only broken twice in the match but his serve stats weren’t amazing. He had to work hard for some of his service holds. Rublev fought hard but had problems with his first serve. Less than half of them found the court.

Ruud’s serve should be more solid that Rublev’s was so Struff will get fewer chances. This will be another tight one. It’s a tough one to call but the value is on Ruud. I would lay whoever breaks first in the opening set. Lay the set 1 winner.

Thiem (1.40) v Rublev (3.15)

Due to start at 7:15 pm

Thiem leads their previous matches 2-1. Their last 2 matches were on clay with the most recent being in Hamburg in July last year. Rublev won in 2 tie breaks. Thiem’s win on clay was in Monte Carlo in April 2018. He won 5-7, 7-5, 7-5.

Their overall win percentages in the last 12 months and in 2020 are fairly even. Thiem has better clay results.

Rublev will need to improve on his serving performance against Struff yesterday. In a lot of ways he got away with a poor serving day. He isn’t likely to get the win over Thiem if he serves as poorly.

Thiem didn’t dominate his first match of the week but looked more solid. Rublev will be more focused today and it should be a great match.

Lay Thiem around 1.25 and remove the liability around 1.50. Back Thiem if he goes a break behind or if he loses set 1.

Very good chance of 3 sets.